Saudi Arabia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Saudi Arabia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Saudi Arabia economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-0.05	0.7	1	0.6	0.5	0.5	percent
Unemployment Rate	6.10	6	6	6	6.2	5.9	percent
Inflation Rate	2.20	2.5	2.8	2.5	2.4	2.5	percent
Interest Rate	2.50	2.75	3	3	3.25	3.5	percent
Balance of Trade	120299.00	114000	113000	135000	138000	126000	Million SAR
Government Debt to GDP	17.20	18	18	20	20	22	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75
Stock Market	7905.27 points	7926	7853	7780	7707	7424

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	-0.05 percent	0.7	1	0.6	0.5	0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate	1.15 percent	1.3	0.8	1.4	1.5	2.3
GDP	683.83 USD Billion	745	745	758	758	780
GDP Constant Prices	647759.00 SAR Million	641478	665032	656828	637617	693254
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	139437.00 SAR Million	123058	174459	141389	151156	181862
GDP per capita	20796.32 USD	21000	21000	21700	21700	22000
GDP per capita PPP	49045.41 USD	49268	48917	50405	50405	49388
GDP From Agriculture	16063.00 SAR Million	15291	13311	16288	16226	13876
GDP From Construction	28833.00 SAR Million	30038	29908	29237	29517	31178
GDP From Manufacturing	81493.00 SAR Million	79118	78675	82634	77793	82014
GDP From Mining	252124.00 SAR Million	256884	255706	255654	255404	266558
GDP From Transport	38341.00 SAR Million	35807	39848	38878	37823	41539
GDP From Utilities	3720.00 SAR Million	14670	5981	3772	10104	6235

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	6.10 percent	6	6	6	6.2	5.9
Unemployed Persons	826428.00	830000	800000	790000	810000	810000
Population	32.61 Million	33.4	33.4	34	34	34.5
Labor Force Participation Rate	55.50 percent	55.8	55.9	56	56.1	56.7
Employed Persons	11168.50 Thousand	11200	11200	11350	11350	11200
Retirement Age Men	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Women	55.00	55	55	55	55	55

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.20 percent	2.5	2.8	2.5	2.4	2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI	107.30 Index Points	108	107	111	110	112
Food Inflation	6.60 percent	5.4	5.5	4.8	4.7	3.9
Inflation Rate Mom	-0.20 percent	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2
GDP Deflator	126.49 Index Points	136	136	141	141	146
Cpi Housing Utilities	109.50 Index Points	115	115	116	113	120
CPI Transportation	119.40 Index Points	110	109	123	122	114
Producer Prices	116.70 Index Points	113	111	121	120	116
Producer Prices Change	15.30 percent	12	10	3	3.2	2.5

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	2.50 percent	2.75	3	3	3.25	3.5
Interbank Rate	2.61 percent	2.86	3.11	3.11	3.36	3.61
Money Supply M0	313961.00 SAR Million	313000	312000	315000	317000	355000
Money Supply M1	1198386.00 SAR Million	1219000	1215000	1240000	1245000	1300000
Money Supply M2	1621989.00 SAR Million	1623000	1624000	1626000	1627000	1630000
Money Supply M3	1787176.00 SAR Million	1780000	1800000	1810000	1815000	2000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	1879840.00 SAR Million	1880000	1870000	1880000	1870000	1900000
Banks Balance Sheet	2288759.74 Million SAR	2270000	2350000	2320000	2340000	2640000
Deposit Interest Rate	2.65 percent	2.9	3.15	3.15	3.4	3.65
Loan Growth	1.10 percent	0.6	1	1.5	1.8	3.5
Loans To Banks	33711.00 SAR Million	41900	51200	57000	63000	87000
Loans To Private Sector	1431457.61 SAR Million	1430000	1440000	1450000	1456000	1496000
Central Bank Balance Sheet	1922341.00 Million SAR	1960000	1950000	1980000	1985000	2000000
Reverse Repo Rate	2.00 percent	2	2.5	2.5	2.5	3

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	120299.00 Million SAR	114000	113000	135000	138000	126000
Exports	243713.00 Million SAR	250000	233000	260000	265000	260000
Imports	123414.00 Million SAR	136000	120000	125000	127000	134000
Current Account	11065.00 USD Million	7500	7000	6800	6200	4500
Current Account to GDP	2.20 percent	3	3	2	2	3
Capital Flows	8820.00 USD Million	1800	-1400	-3600	-4000	1500
Tourism Revenues	12139.00 USD Million	11600	12000	11890	11900	13500
Gold Reserves	322.90 Tonnes	323	323	323	323	323
Crude Oil Production	10412.00 BBL/D/1K	10250	10050	10000	9850	10200
Foreign Direct Investment	838.00 USD Million	270	272	275	276	290
Terrorism Index	5.81	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.4
Tourist Arrivals	16119.00 Thousand	16025	18689	17500	18200	21230
Remittances	32130.00 SAR Million	33100	32900	32300	32400	36800

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	17.20 percent	18	18	20	20	22
Government Budget	-8.90 percent of GDP	-9	-9	-8.5	-8.5	-6.5
Government Spending	143980.00 SAR Million	143680	221331	145996	146963	230723
Government Revenues	691505.00 SAR Million	650000	650000	640000	640000	650000
Fiscal Expenditure	929999.00 SAR Million	930000	930000	1000000	1000000	970000
Military Expenditure	69521.40 USD Million	73704	92000	76660	74950	99732
Government Budget Value	-238494.00 SAR Million	-280000	-280000	-360000	-360000	-320000

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	3.00 Index Points	5	5	5	5	5
Manufacturing PMI	55.10	54.9	55.7	55	56	57
Industrial Production	3.44 percent	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.9	1
Changes in Inventories	42358.00 SAR Million	38000	40000	41000	41500	42900
Internet Speed	6705.52 KBps	8000	8075	8124	8215	8433
IP Addresses	3510242.00 IP	2992123	2888031	2876293	2791496	2501346
Industrial Production Mom	0.59 percent	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.8
Manufacturing Production	8.09 percent	7.1	6.3	6.5	6.8	9.4
Mining Production	2.01 percent	3.1	2.8	1.5	1.2	0.1
Competitiveness Index	4.83 Points	4.83	4.83	4.7	4.7	4.7
Competitiveness Rank	30.00	30	30	31	31	32
Ease of Doing Business	92.00	91	91	90	90	89
Corruption Index	49.00 Points	49	49	47	47	46
Corruption Rank	57.00	58	58	60	60	59
Steel Production	503.00 Thousand Tonnes	446	460	436	435	500

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	107.00 Index Points	105	104	104	102	109
Consumer Spending	276929.00 SAR Million	267895	270772	280806	264181	282263
Households Debt To Gdp	12.60 percent of GDP	13.1	13.2	13.4	13.3	13.1
Gasoline Prices	0.54 USD/Liter	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.36

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Housing Index	83.60 Index Points	83.9	83.7	83.5	82.9	85

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	20.00 percent	20	20	20	20	20
Personal Income Tax Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0	0
Social Security Rate	22.00 percent	22	22	22	22	22
Social Security Rate For Companies	12.00 percent	12	12	12	12	12
Social Security Rate For Employees	10.00 percent	10	10	10	10	10
Sales Tax Rate	5.00 percent	5	5	5	5	5

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Temperature	34.68 celsius	33.27	21.35	18.04	31.17	26.17

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