The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.5 in December 2019 from a 10-1/2-year low of 45.6 in the previous month. The latest reading pointed to the eighth straight month of contraction in the sector, but the smallest since August. Production and client demand fell at a softer pace while firms reduced further their workforce numbers and backlogs of work dropped sharply. At the same time, output prices rose only slightly and at the joint-slowest pace since April 2017, as firms struggled to pass on higher cost burdens amid challenging demand conditions. Meantime, input price inflation reportedly stemmed from higher raw material prices. Looking ahead, business sentiment was the second-lowest for over two years. Manufacturing PMI in Russia averaged 50.36 points from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 54.70 points in January of 2017 and a record low of 45.60 points in November of 2019. source: Markit Economics

Manufacturing PMI in Russia is expected to be 46.90 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Russia to stand at 53.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Russia Manufacturing PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
47.50 45.60 54.70 45.60 2011 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Russia Manufacturing PMI Lowest Since May 2009
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 in November 2019, the lowest since May 2009, from 47.2 in the prior month. The overall contraction was driven by weaker demand conditions, with production and new orders falling at steeper rates. In addition, foreign demand dropped at a marked rate, and firms reduced further their workforce numbers. A reduction in pressure on capacity was also seen in a sharp fall in backlogs of work. At the same time, a sustained fall in purchasing activity led to inventory levels being depleted further as firms increasingly fulfilled pre-existing demand by selling from stock and utilising previously purchased raw materials. On the price front, inflationary pressures eased to historically muted rates, with weak client demand and greater efforts to discount leading to a fractional rise in output charges. Looking ahead, sentiment hit its lowest in two years.

Russian Manufacturing Shrinks for 6th Month
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.2 in October 2019 from 46.3 in a month earlier, pointing to the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the sector. Output declined at a softer rate, with new orders falling for the fifth month in a row and employment declining for the third straight month. Also, firms reduced their purchasing activity further as they supplemented production through the use of pre-production inventories. Meanwhile, export sales shrank the most in over a decade, amid weakening global demand. Regarding prices, inflationary pressures picked up slightly but remained historically muted. Output charges rose marginally as firms sought to stay competitive. Looking ahead, sentiment remained strongly positive.

Russia Factory Activity Shrinks for 5th Month
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.3 in September 2019 from 49.1 the previous month. This was the fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as new orders fell at a faster pace and new export orders dropped at the sharpest rate for three years. Also, output shrank for the fourth consecutive month and the steepest drop since April 2009, while employment declined for second successive month, and the fastest decline since May. At the same time, backlogs of work were depleted further and at a sharp pace. On the prices front, rates of both input price and output charge inflation eased, amid a more favourable ruble exchange rate. Finally, business confidence dipped to its lowest since December 2017.

Russia Manufacturing Shrinks for 4th Month
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI went down to 49.1 in August 2019 from 49.3 the previous month. This was the fourth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as new orders fell the most since May of 2015 and new export orders dropped at the sharpest rate since September 2015 . Also, output shrank for the third consecutive month and the workforce numbers declined, the fourth monthly contraction since April. Meanwhile, backlogs of work fell markedly. On the prices front, rates of both input price and output charge inflation picked up in August, although paces of increase remained relatively muted overall. Finlally, business confidence was at its highest since March.

Russia Manufacturing Shrinks for 3rd Month
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI went up to 49.3 in July 2019 from 48.6 the previous month. This was the third straight month of contraction in factory activity, as output shrank for the second consecutive month, albeit at only fractional rate, due to a further fall in new business. Additionally, new export orders contracted for the third month in a row, the quickest since July 2018. Meantime, the workforce numbers rose for first time in four months. Inflationary pressure softened as the slowest rise in input costs since February 2017 translated into only a fractional rise in output charges. Finally, confidence remained upbeat, however, linked to new product launches.

Russia Manufacturing PMI Lowest in 11 Months
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI fell to an eleven-month low of 48.6 in June 2019 from 49.8 the previous month. Weighing on June's headline PMI was the first contraction in new business since August 2018. The fall was slight, but signalled a notable turnaround from March's recent high. Also, output shrank following eight months of expansion, with the downturn was the fastest since April 2016. Additionally, new export orders contracted for the second month in a row; workforce numbers fell further, with backlogs falling faster; and input buying dropped at the fastest rate in over four years . On the price front, input cost inflation hit its lowest since July 2017. Meantime, output charges rose the least since March 2018, amid discounting and promotions. Finally, sentiment weakened to a near one-year low, though remained above its historical trend.

Russia Manufacturing PMI
The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 300 manufacturing companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Russia Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence -6.00 -5.00 7.00 -20.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.50 45.60 54.70 45.60 points [+]
Services PMI 53.10 55.60 58.40 41.30 points [+]
Industrial Production 0.30 2.60 17.70 -16.90 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.50 5.50 24.40 -26.10 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.10 3.70 27.10 -28.10 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 64.00 65.00 66.00 38.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1441.30 846.30 2009.30 -1157.20 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 179235.00 156848.00 291020.00 39497.00 Units [+]
Car Production 139.50 134.70 187.00 18.20 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 179235.00 156848.00 291020.00 39497.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.60 2.30 9.90 -11.80 percent [+]
Internet Speed 11846.17 11607.38 12288.46 1909.63 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 19163474.00 19200437.00 19200437.00 2137082.00 IP [+]
Steel Production 5620.00 5950.00 6804.00 3130.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 1.40 0.90 10.80 -7.70 percent [+]
Cement Production 5.46 5.96 7.70 1.60 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 66.74 65.62 66.74 4.13 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 43.00 67.00 43.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.80 52.90 58.30 44.70 points [+]
Bankruptcies 3088.00 2937.00 3697.00 1103.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 13001.90 11689.20 13797.20 -224.00 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29.00 29.00 21.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 138.00 135.00 154.00 47.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 28.00 31.00 124.00 28.00 [+]