Russia's gross domestic product grew 1.8 percent from a year earlier in November 2018, easing from an upwardly revised 2.8 percent expansion in the previous month and missing market forecasts of 2 percent. Industrial production rose at a slower 2.4 percent (vs 3.7 percent in October) as manufacturing stalled, while agriculture output shrank 3.9 percent (vs 11.9 percent in October). On the other hand, growth picked up in construction (4.3 percent vs 2.9 percent), retail trade (3 percent vs 2 percent) and freight turnover (2.4 percent vs 1.5 percent). Leading Economic Index in Russia averaged 1.96 percent from 2005 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -11.80 percent in May of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Russia is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Russia to stand at 1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia GDP YoY is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.