Russia's gross domestic product growth accelerated to 1.6 percent year-on-year in April 2019 from a downwardly revised 0.2 percent in the previous month and well above market consensus of 1 percent. Industrial output rose the most since May 2017 (4.6 percent vs 1.2 percent in March), while retail trade growth slowed (1.2 percent vs 1.6 percent) and construction activity was flat (vs 0.2 percent in March). Leading Economic Index in Russia averaged 1.93 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -11.80 percent in May of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Russia is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Russia to stand at 1.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia GDP YoY is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.