The Romanian GDP expanded 5.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, matching preliminary estimates and above a 4.1 percent growth in the December quarter, a second estimate showed. It was the strongest GDP growth since the fourth quarter of 2017, mainly driven by a 6.7 percent rise in private consumption (from 5.3 in Q4). Also, government spending rebounded sharply (4.8 percent from -10 percent in Q4) and investment rose 5.4 percent, after a 3.2 percent fall in Q4. Conversely, net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth as exports rose 3.5 percent while imports increased at a faster 9.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.3 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 1.0 percent expansion in the prior quarter. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Romania averaged 3.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and a record low of -7.40 percent in the third quarter of 1997.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Romania is expected to be 3.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Romania to stand at 2.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Romania GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.