Romania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.1 4 4.2 4.5 5.4 percent
Inflation Rate 5.10 4.9 3.8 3.2 3.5 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -1272.70 -1030 -1670 -890 -1630 -1400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.00 36.2 36.2 35.4 35.4 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.96
4 4.03 4.06 4.08 4.18
Stock Market 8378.04
points
8261 8181 8101 8023 7717
Government Bond 10Y 4.81
percent
4.91 4.97 5.03 5.09 5.34
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40
percent
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10
percent
5.1 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.2
GDP 211.80
USD Billion
225 225 245 245 265
GDP Constant Prices 40662.40
RON Million
40843 41729 41725 42208 44658
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 10417.20
RON Million
10887 11313 11182 10813 12107
GDP per capita 10932.33
USD
11000 11000 12000 12000 13000
GDP per capita PPP 23313.20
USD
23968 24467 23361 23361 26356
GDP From Agriculture 3095.60
RON Million
3250 2467 3018 3213 2641
GDP From Construction 2048.50
RON Million
2156 2218 2226 2126 2373
GDP From Manufacturing 9052.80
RON Million
9126 9567 9320 9397 10239
GDP From Public Administration 1353.20
RON Million
1456 1518 1542 1405 1624
GDP From Services 11503.90
RON Million
11071 11323 11803 11941 12117
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4.1 4 4.2 4.5 5.4
Employed Persons 4940.20
Thousand
4948 4951 4952 4952 4952
Unemployed Persons 305.40
Thousand
304 305 304 304 304
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90
percent
1.78 1.74 1.73 1.71 1.64
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80
percent
17.32 17.36 17.35 17.35 17.35
Labour Costs 139.30
Index Points
128 125 125 124 124
Job Vacancies 1.25
percent
1.27 1.25 1.27 1.25 1.25
Wages 4510.00
RON/Month
3800 4100 4200 4553 4800
Wages in Manufacturing 3982.00
RON/Month
3400 3420 3500 4586 3650
Minimum Wages 407.45
EUR/Month
407 407 450 450 500
Population 19.52
Million
19.52 19.52 19.45 19.39 19.36
Retirement Age Women 60.92
60.92 60.92 61.17 61 61.42
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00
RON/Month
1400 1400 1400 1244 1480
Wages High Skilled 2760.00
RON/Month
2800 2800 2850 2253 2900
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.80
percent
56.45 54.39 54.11 56.84 54.5
Living Wage Family 2210.00
RON/Month
2300 2300 2400 2162 2400
Living Wage Individual 1370.00
RON/Month
1298 1293 1298 1303 1309
Part Time Employment 554.70
Thousand
570 534 562 586 561
Productivity 128.10
Index Points
133 133 133 133 133
Employment Change -0.30
percent
-0.26 0.01 -0.16 -0.27 -0.18
Employment Rate 63.10
percent
66.01 63.78 63.57 66.47 63.87
Full Time Employment 7635.10
Thousand
7960 7774 7684 7900 7801
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.10
percent
4.9 3.8 3.2 3.5 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.28
Index Points
105 104 104 104 110
Core Consumer Prices 102.51
Index Points
103 105 105 106 116
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.48 2.76 3.02 3.29 5.67
Producer Prices 100.70
Index Points
108 108 110 112 116
Producer Prices Change 6.00
percent
5.4 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.6
CPI Transportation 100.08
Index Points
105 104 104 104 110
Food Inflation 4.15
percent
2.9 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.02
Index Points
105 106 107 108 112
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28
percent
0.12 0.22 0.2 0.2 0.2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.97
percent
3.22 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.47
Money Supply M0 65550.80
RON Million
66594 68213 69809 71389 86300
Money Supply M1 219000.90
RON Million
221377 227017 231482 235982 268098
Money Supply M2 359935.20
RON Million
365351 373271 380587 387859 457023
Money Supply M3 360069.70
RON Million
365498 373454 380785 388077 457573
Foreign Exchange Reserves 34507.80
EUR Million
34290 34329 34363 34364 34364
Banks Balance Sheet 465771.74
RON Million
468407 471997 475858 479621 510070
Lending Rate 3.50
percent
3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 4
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
Central Bank Balance Sheet 178392.11
RON Million
176502 175742 175475 175468 175443
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1272.70
EUR Million
-1030 -1670 -890 -1630 -1400
Exports 5900.50
EUR Million
5720 4710 6220 5490 5380
Imports 7173.20
EUR Million
6750 6380 7110 7120 6780
Current Account -1061.00
EUR Million
-572 -620 -570 -780 -370
Current Account to GDP -3.40
percent
-0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
External Debt 97582.00
EUR Million
95625 95887 96135 96364 97843
Remittances 808.00
EUR Million
668 727 621 797 710
Gold Reserves 103.70
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.00
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
23.74 13.95 15.05 16.16 20.92
Crude Oil Production 70.00
BBL/D/1K
69.8 69.78 69.78 69.78 69.78
Foreign Direct Investment 362.20
EUR Million
355 346 349 349 349
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.00
percent
36.2 36.2 35.4 35.4 35
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP
-2 -2 -3.92 -4.18 -1.2
Government Budget Value -19732.30
RON Million
-5374 -11967 -11164 -9649 -10602
Government Spending 1723.90
RON Million
1803 1664 1839 1789 1781
Government Spending to GDP 33.40
percent
33.26 33.04 32.93 32.82 33.75
Government Revenues 74776.70
RON Million
64784 51361 56351 57864 56524
Government Debt 287030.30
RON Million
293074 296626 298095 300983 318265
Fiscal Expenditure 94509.00
RON Million
70158 64531 67514 67513 67127
Military Expenditure 3975.50
USD Million
4058 4493 4533 4572 5426
Asylum Applications 160.00
persons
63.5 65.86 68.39 65.94 66.79
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 4.00
percent
4.2 4 4.5 4.2 2.8
Industrial Production Mom -3.00
percent
0.2 3.6 0.5 1.5 1
Manufacturing Production 5.20
percent
5.1 4.9 5.6 5.2 3.6
Capacity Utilization 76.20
percent
75.23 75.41 75.66 75.58 75.57
Changes in Inventories 7307.30
RON Million
515 3289 2156 2619 2484
Car Registrations 149274.00
154961 159573 155494 154663 155704
Internet Speed 16990.81
KBps
19400 19782 20152 20505 23439
IP Addresses 3664561.00
IP
3990073 4050340 4101472 4152572 4701659
Mining Production 3.90
percent
3.94 3.65 3.86 3.92 3.9
Business Confidence 0.80
Index Points
1.3 1 0.8 0.5 0.4
Competitiveness Index 4.28
Points
4.29 4.29 4.28 4.27 4.27
Competitiveness Rank 68.00
66 66 68 69 69
Ease Of Doing Business 45.00
37.26 36.89 37.22 37.56 38.04
Electricity Production 4851.00
Gigawatt-hour
5208 5614 5352 5183 5317
Corruption Index 48.00
Points
48 49 49 49 50
Corruption Rank 59.00
57 58 58 58 59
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.90
percent
0.29 0.8 0.39 0.4 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.00
percent
3.7 3 3.2 2.9 2.9
Consumer Spending 38468.90
RON Million
38967 39810 39344 39931 42604
Consumer Credit 43903.33
RON Million
44779 45971 46968 47804 51389
Consumer Confidence -21.30
Index Points
-21.5 -22 -23.2 -23.5 -18
Gasoline Prices 1.42
USD/Liter
1.45 1.37 1.29 1.22 0.96
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output -17.40
percent
1.18 1.81 1.73 1.69 1.7
Housing Index 116.10
Index Points
118 119 121 122 128
Building Permits 4430.00
3632 3040 3540 3848 3571
Home Ownership Rate 96.80
percent
96.4 96.47 96.54 96.6 96.67
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 37.25
percent
37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.25
percent
2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 35.00
percent
16.5 16.5 30.37 35 35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 21.61
celsius
18.19 3.93 -0.84 13.84 8.97