Portugal's industrial production shrank 1.6 percent from a year earlier in April 2019, following a downwardly revised 7.1 percent slump in the previous month. It was the smallest decline in industrial activity since December, as output fell much less for electricity, gas, steam and water supply (-9.4 percent vs -32 percent in March). Also, activity rebounded slightly for manufacturing (0.3 percent vs -1.4 percent), namely driven by production of pharmaceutical products (4.6% vs -3%); machinery and equipment (3.6% vs -0.9%); rubber & plastics (2.9% vs -6%) and metallurgical products (8.8% after being unchanged in March). In contrast, the mining sector contracted (-12.9 percent vs 12.4 percent). On a monthly basis, industrial activity rose 2.9 percent, the most since March 2018, reversing a downwardly revised 0.8 percent decline in the prior month. Industrial Production in Portugal averaged -0.99 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 10.10 percent in August of 2017 and a record low of -18.20 percent in January of 2009.
Industrial Production in Portugal is expected to be -2.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Portugal to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Portugal Industrial Production is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.