Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.14
Stock Market (points) 3995.60 3969 3890 3813 3736 3584
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.25 0.27 0.3 0.33 0.36 0.43

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -13.90 4.6 2 2.3 1.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -16.30 -7.7 -5.6 -2.1 10.2 5.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.60 9.6 10 9.5 8.8 8
Inflation Rate (%) 0.00 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -716.31 -1700 -1460 -1350 -1500 -1440
Current Account (EUR Million) 140.01 190 -350 -200 -40 -220
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.10 -0.8 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 117.20 132 132 124 124 124
Government Budget (% of GDP) 0.10 -7 -7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Business Confidence (points) -1.30 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 0.1
Consumer Confidence (points) -26.00 -24 -16 -12 -10 -12
Retail Sales MoM (%) 3.90 -1.4 -1.2 1.3 -1.1 -0.7
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -13.90 4.6 2 2.3 1.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -16.30 -7.7 -5.6 -2.1 10.2 5.9
GDP (USD Billion) 237.69 200 200 230 230 230
GDP Constant Prices (EUR Million) 42283.90 49348 48161 48002 46473 51003
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EUR Million) 8306.60 8851 8372 8944 10068 8866
GDP per capita (USD) 24590.40 25100 25100 25700 25700 25700
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 34798.00 32600 32600 33400 33400 33400
GDP From Agriculture (EUR Million) 1026.80 992 965 1004 1130 1022
GDP From Construction (EUR Million) 1998.80 1869 1799 1919 2160 1905
GDP From Manufacturing (EUR Million) 4738.00 6000 5833 5894 6635 6177
GDP From Services (EUR Million) 6405.80 8640 8456 8260 9298 8955
GDP From Transport (EUR Million) 3090.20 3703 3571 3591 4042 3782
GDP From Utilities (EUR Million) 1464.00 1564 1550 1515 1705 1642
Gross National Product (EUR Million) 46294.19 52433 51580 49496 55715 54623

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.60 9.6 10 9.5 8.8 8
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 4706.00 4960 4990 4990 4990 5110
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 388.80 291 275 275 275 275
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 456.10 585 600 600 600 615
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 4275.10 4470 4510 4510 4510 4590
Employment Rate (%) 53.20 55.9 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 56.30 59.6 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.70 4.5 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.7
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 26.30 27.6 28 27.5 26.8 26.8
Labour Costs (points) 118.10 91.55 109 98.11 99.6 110
Job Vacancies 9169.00 16250 10412 10412 10412 10450
Wages (EUR/Month) 1188.06 1114 1161 1176 1194 1178
Wages in Manufacturing (points) 135.47 101 146 109 106 148
Wage Growth (%) -13.20 -6.2 -2.3 -1 0.5 1.5
Minimum Wages (EUR/Month) 740.83 741 741 741 741 780
Population (Million) 10.28 10.25 10.25 10.23 10.23 10.23
Retirement Age Women 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5 66.5 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.42 66.42 66.42 66.5 66.5 66.5
Productivity (points) 113.00 100 104 104 104 104
Unemployment Change 16611.00 4800 2600 -1600 -2220 -1800
Employment Change (%) -3.40 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 0.00 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.1
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.30 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 103.20 104 104 105 106 105
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 103.12 104 104 104 107 105
Core Consumer Prices (points) 103.13 105 105 105 105 107
Core Inflation Rate (%) -0.08 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.7
Producer Prices (points) 98.10 98.58 101 102 98.98 102
Producer Prices Change (%) -5.00 -4.2 -1.2 0.5 1.1 1.4
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 108.21 108 109 110 109 110
CPI Transportation (points) 99.81 102 103 100 102 104
Food Inflation (%) 2.30 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8
GDP Deflator (%) 1.60 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Interbank Rate (%) -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33
Money Supply M2 (EUR Million) 246088.30 255400 263300 263300 263300 275200
Banks Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 431296.20 406300 411200 411200 411200 419100
Loans to Private Sector (EUR Million) 71585.00 72574 71822 71884 72741 73043
Loan Growth (%) 4.60 5 7 6.5 4.4 1.7
Private Debt to GDP (%) 248.20 244 244 244 244 240
Central Bank Balance Sheet (EUR Million) 136408.00 136400 144240 144240 144240 144240

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (EUR Million) -716.31 -1700 -1460 -1350 -1500 -1440
Current Account (EUR Million) 140.01 190 -350 -200 -40 -220
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.10 -0.8 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Imports (EUR Million) 5723.06 6530 6110 6550 6350 6410
Exports (EUR Million) 5006.75 4300 4150 5200 4850 4600
External Debt (EUR Million) 414698.00 419100 423300 423300 423300 426300
Capital Flows (EUR Million) 886.67 510 287 287 287 320
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR Million) 143.71 450 120 120 120 180
Remittances (EUR Million) 344.76 295 402 402 402 415
Tourism Revenues (EUR Million) 339.86 780 250 810 1050 650
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 382.50 383 383 383 383 383
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 3.00 50 50 50 50 50
Tourist Arrivals (Persons) 889198.00 2161000 1119000 1753000 3203000 1952000

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 117.20 132 132 124 124 124
Government Budget (% of GDP) 0.10 -7 -7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Budget Value (EUR Million) -8488.00 -6000 -3310 -10200 -15600 -3810
Government Spending (EUR Million) 8067.20 8145 7905 8195 9224 8372
Government Spending to GDP (%) 42.70 48 48 46 46 46
Government Revenues (EUR Million) 23732.00 36200 47250 9700 23600 52120
Government Debt (EUR Million) 259887.00 269100 271000 271000 271000 276000
Fiscal Expenditure (EUR Million) 32221.00 48200 65560 19900 39200 62060
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 3969.00 4334 4334 4334 4334 4334

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate (%) 23.00 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate (%) 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) -1.30 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 0.1
Industrial Production (%) -9.60 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 11.90 -1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing Production (%) -15.70 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 73.19 81 81.4 81.4 81.4 81.5
Changes in Inventories (EUR Million) 73.81 55 88 88 88 95
Car Registrations 12417.00 16600 22420 22420 22420 25180
Leading Economic Index (%) -11.50 2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5
Mining Production (%) -9.50 1.7 2 2 2 1.4
Car Production (Units) 12077.00 22500 15100 13200 20200 18900

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) -26.00 -24 -16 -12 -10 -12
Retail Sales MoM (%) 3.90 -1.4 -1.2 1.3 -1.1 -0.7
Retail Sales YoY (%) -3.00 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
Consumer Spending (EUR Million) 26790.60 31229 30293 30461 34289 32080
Personal Savings (%) 10.60 9.5 8 7.5 7 7.1
Consumer Credit (EUR Million) 119176.00 115171 112175 116375 130937 118793
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 64.00 57.8 57.8 57.8 57.8 54
Households Debt To Income (%) 92.97 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.9 86
Personal Spending (%) -11.50 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.07 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63
Disposable Personal Income (EUR Million) 41676.00 42759 41421 40801 45927 43865
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.66 1.45 1.38 1.31 1.25 1.18

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Construction Output (%) -4.30 -3.8 -2 1.5 4.1 4.5
Housing Index (points) 152.50 145 149 149 149 154
Home Ownership Rate (%) 74.50 73.8 73.8 73.8 73.8 73.4
Building Permits 1734.00 1880 1620 1620 1620 1790


This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.