Portugal - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Portugal including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Portugal economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.90 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.4 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1121.70 -1270 -1430 -800 -940 -1260 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 125.70 123 123 119 119 115 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 5587.64
points
5331 5178 5029 4885 4348
Government Bond 10Y 1.77
percent
1.91 2.09 2.3 2.52 3.64
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
GDP 217.57
USD Billion
225 225 232 232 240
GDP Constant Prices 45414.90
EUR Million
45309 46077 46232 45372 47563
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7927.00
EUR Million
7798 7933 8070 7868 8188
GDP per capita 23116.58
USD
23700 23700 24500 24500 25100
GDP per capita PPP 27936.90
USD
28500 28500 29100 29100 29600
GDP From Agriculture 824.00
EUR Million
825 838 839 823 865
GDP From Construction 1637.00
EUR Million
1579 1661 1666 1628 1715
GDP From Manufacturing 5568.30
EUR Million
5676 5745 5669 5578 5930
GDP From Services 8650.40
EUR Million
8545 8721 8806 8579 9003
GDP From Transport 3048.40
EUR Million
3194 3190 3103 3141 3293
GDP From Utilities 1214.00
EUR Million
1191 1223 1236 1192 1263
Gross National Product 47369.40
EUR Million
49729 49955 48222 49659 51567
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.90
percent
7.3 7.6 7.5 7.4 6.5
Employed Persons 4799.00
Thousand
4850 4890 4910 4920 4990
Unemployed Persons 364.00
Thousand
375 370 368 365 355
Part Time Employment 516.90
Thousand
550 560 570 575 600
Full Time Employment 4289.80
Thousand
4360 4380 4400 4420 4510
Employment Rate 54.30
percent
54.7 54.8 54.9 55 55.9
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.90
percent
59.7 59.8 59.9 60 60.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.80
percent
20.8 20.6 20.2 20 19
Labour Costs 95.50
Index Points
96.7 107 102 97.4 108
Job Vacancies 12857.00
12100 10185 16100 14300 10412
Wages 1144.61
EUR/Month
1240 1250 1280 1290 1410
Wages in Manufacturing 107.50
Index Points
105 145 109 119 157
Wage Growth 5.60
percent
3.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.7
Minimum Wages 676.67
EUR/Month
677 677 700 700 720
Population 10.29
Million
10.29 10.29 10.28 10.28 10.28
Retirement Age Women 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.33
66.33 66.33 66.42 66.42 66.5
Unemployment Change -17321.00
-7500 -3700 -12100 -20500 -3200
Wages Low Skilled 615.00
EUR/Month
650 650 700 700 750
Wages High Skilled 1360.00
EUR/Month
1450 1450 1500 1500 1650
Productivity 98.80
Index points
110 103 99.7 104 104
Living Wage Family 870.00
EUR/Month
890 890 1150 1150 1205
Living Wage Individual 595.00
EUR/Month
650 650 700 700 850
Employment Change 1.00
percent
0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.7 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.57
Index Points
105 104 104 106 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.29
Index Points
105 105 105 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 104.31
Index Points
105 104 105 106 108
Core Inflation Rate 0.95
percent
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8
Producer Prices 103.90
Index Points
106 108 110 106 119
Producer Prices Change 4.00
percent
2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 107.91
Index Points
107 108 109 110 112
CPI Transportation 101.43
Index Points
99.04 101 101 103 105
Food Inflation 1.24
percent
1.5 1.7 1.9 2 2
GDP Deflator 1.30
percent
1.8 1.8 2 2 2.2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M0 27383.00
EUR Million
29500 30200 30900 31600 34500
Money Supply M1 122636.00
EUR Million
145100 156200 159700 165100 244400
Money Supply M2 209456.00
EUR Million
242400 251500 256100 261200 293300
Foreign Exchange Reserves 20389.12
EUR Million
20166 25620 20262 20264 28220
Banks Balance Sheet 368224.00
EUR Million
387800 395100 405100 408100 429200
Loans to Private Sector 72950.00
EUR Million
78100 81400 85900 88447 98200
Private Debt to GDP 257.50
percent
252 252 248 248 244
Loan Growth -0.60
percent
0.5 0.9 1 1.5 2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 112255.00
EUR Million
116200 119500 122500 125200 151250
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1121.70
EUR Million
-1270 -1430 -800 -940 -1260
Exports 5174.13
EUR Million
4850 4320 5680 5250 4850
Imports 6295.83
EUR Million
6120 5750 6480 6190 6110
Current Account -1159.58
EUR Million
451 -160 -120 51 -90
Current Account to GDP 0.50
percent
0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5
External Debt 410196.09
EUR Million
410300 412300 414100 415900 423300
Capital Flows -613.99
EUR Million
270 304 480 -280 287
Foreign Direct Investment 487.54
EUR Million
320 450 340 450 120
Remittances 290.13
EUR Million
290 396 285 307 402
Tourism Revenues 1597.47
EUR Million
1840 1020 1000 1410 1400
Gold Reserves 382.50
Tonnes
383 383 383 383 383
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Tourist Arrivals 4195909.00
4660000 1774000 2990000 4722000 2153000
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million
100 100 80 80 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 125.70
percent
123 123 119 119 115
Government Budget -3.00
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7
Government Budget Value -3204.00
EUR Million
-2970 -3160 -1670 -3900 -2310
Government Spending 8415.70
EUR Million
8476 8563 8567 8536 8839
Government Spending to GDP 45.90
percent
45.1 45.1 44.7 44.7 44.2
Government Revenues 13202.00
EUR Million
33750 45410 10050 22050 47250
Government Debt 245829.00
EUR Million
253200 254000 257400 259100 271000
Fiscal Expenditure 11607.00
EUR Million
36720 48570 11720 25950 49560
Military Expenditure 3662.30
USD Million
3525 4329 3484 3494 4334
Asylum Applications 85.00
persons
80 45 50 51 35
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.40
Index Points
2.5 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.5
Industrial Production -2.70
percent
2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -1.90
percent
-3.8 0.5 2.9 -0.2 0.5
Manufacturing Production -2.20
percent
4.4 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.3
Capacity Utilization 80.58
percent
80.8 80.9 81 81.5 81.4
Changes in Inventories 22.20
EUR Million
42 56 105 150 88
Car Registrations 23576.00
14950 21550 28600 25150 25420
Leading Economic Index 1.80
percent
2.4 2.3 2 2.2 2.4
Internet Speed 12894.80
KBps
12907 12940 12932 12939 12988
IP Addresses 3662187.00
IP
3699162 3702855 3706932 3710223 3742609
Mining Production 15.70
percent
0.5 1 1.5 1.7 2
Competitiveness Index 4.57
Points
4.57 4.57 4.65 4.65 4.74
Competitiveness Rank 42.00
42 42 41 41 40
Ease of Doing Business 29.00
28 28 27 27 26
Electricity Production 4646.00
Gigawatt-hour
4720 4620 4950 4700 4720
Corruption Index 63.00
Points
64 64 65 65 66
Corruption Rank 29.00
28 28 27 27 26
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 2.80
Index Points
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.1
Retail Sales MoM 4.60
percent
0.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.20
percent
4.4 3.8 3.2 3 2.2
Consumer Spending 29073.90
EUR Million
28994 29378 29597 28810 30326
Personal Savings 5.10
percent
4.8 4.5 4.2 4.4 5.8
Consumer Credit 114757.00
EUR Million
115200 115400 115500 115600 116900
Personal Spending 2.20
percent
1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 2
Bank Lending Rate 2.83
percent
2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 3.58
Disposable Personal Income 41689.80
EUR Million
41920 42960 43250 43860 46120
Gasoline Prices 1.88
USD/Liter
1.78 1.68 1.59 1.5 0.86
Households Debt To Gdp 69.40
percent of GDP
65.7 64.8 63.8 63.4 57.8
Households Debt To Income 100.95
percent
99.8 99.8 95.1 95.1 91.9
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 3.70
percent
3.7 3.6 3.2 3 2
Housing Index 125.58
Index points
125 127 129 130 140
Building Permits 1644.00
1750 1400 1690 1720 1620
Home Ownership Rate 75.20
percent
74.2 74.2 74 74 73.8
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 34.75
percent
34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75 34.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.75
percent
23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75 23.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 56.68
mm
22.3 103 94.51 69.64 69.39
Temperature 10.55
celsius
21.14 11.86 9.66 17.82 15.05