Retail sales in Poland increased 4.7 percent year-on-year in December of 2018, easing from a 8.2 percent jump in the prior month and missing market expectations of a 7.7 percent rise. It is the slowest advance in retail trade since April. Sales went up less for fuels (10.7% vs 16% in November); other retail sale in non-specialized stores (5.4% vs 6.2%); pharmaceuticals, cosmetics (8% vs 14.7%); clothing & footwear (4.3% vs 15.6%) and furniture, appliances & electronics (9.2% vs 12.6%). In addition, sales fell for food, beverages & tobacco (-1.4% vs 3.9%). On the other hand, sales advanced faster for newspapers, books (1.1% vs 0.7%) and rebounded for motor vehicles, parts (2.2% vs -4.4%). On a monthly basis, retail trade grew 12.9 percent, recovering sharply from a 2.7 percent decline in November. Considering 2018 full-year, retail trade increased 7.5 percent. Retail Sales YoY in Poland averaged 7.23 percent from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in April of 2004 and a record low of -14.40 percent in April of 2005.
Retail Sales YoY in Poland is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Poland to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.