The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.0 in December 2019 from 46.7 in the previous month, and above market expectations of 46.8. Still, the latest figure signalled a 14th successive month of deteriorating manufacturing business conditions, albeit the slowest downturn since August. New orders and output declined at softer rates, with new export business falling for the 17th consecutive month, the longest downturn for over a decade. In addition, employment dropped for the sixth month running, while input volumes were down for the 13th successive period. On the price front, input cost inflation was at a three-month high, while prices charged for manufactured goods fell for the second time in three months. Lastly, output expectations rebounded from November's all-time low, but was still the fourth-lowest on record, as firms reported subdued forecasts for 2020 in light of an economic slowdown and Brexit concerns. Manufacturing PMI in Poland averaged 51.35 points from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 55.90 points in February of 2014 and a record low of 45.60 points in October of 2019. source: Markit Economics

Manufacturing PMI in Poland is expected to be 48.10 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Poland to stand at 52.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Poland Manufacturing PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
48.00 46.70 55.90 45.60 2011 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Polish Factory Activity Shrinks for the 13th Month
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI edged up to 46.7 in November of 2019 from 45.6 in October, compared to market expectations of 46.6. The reading pointed to the 13th straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector albeit slower than in the previous month. Yet, November's figure was the second-lowest since July 2009. New orders, export orders and output continued to decrease although at slower paces. Also, a lack of incoming new orders was reflected in a further steep decrease in backlogs of work; and the rate of job cuts remained was unchanged from the previous month. On the price front, input price inflation was the weakest since September of 2016, mainly due to drops in steel prices and average output charges rose marginally. Finally, business confidence dropped further: expectations towards output in a year’s time moderated to the lowest since this series began in 2012, reflecting a sustained decline in demand and generally weaker economic forecasts.

Polish Factory Activity Shrinks the Most in 10 Years
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI slumped to 45.6 in October 2019 from 47.8 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 48.1. The latest reading pointed to the steepest contraction in the sector since June 2009. It was also the biggest month-on-month fall in the headline figure in three-and-a-half years. New orders dropped at the fastest rate since April 2009, with export sales falling the most in more than a decade, and production contracted by the most since June 2009. This led to more job cuts and reduced purchasing activity. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to a three-year low while output charges declined for the first time in three years. Finally, business confidence was the weakest since the series began in 2012, amid signs of an economic slowdown, especially in Europe.

Polish Factory Activity Shrinks for 11th Month
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI edged down to 47.8 in September of 2019 from 48.8 in August and against market expectations of 47.9. The manufacturing sector remained in contraction for the eleventh straight month, as new orders declined at the fastest in over ten years. In addition, output, purchasing and backlogs all dropped at faster rates. On the price front, input cost increased at the quickest pace in four months while output prices were unchanged. Finally, manufacturer’s optimism regarding production over the next year dropped to the lowest level since 2012.

Poland Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecasts
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 in August of 2019 from July's 75-month low of 47.4 and above market expectations of 47.6. The reading pointed to the tenth consecutive monthly decline in factory activity but the softest since May. Output, new orders and employment fell at a softer pace. On the price front, input prices rose at the third-slowest rate in around three years while output prices increased at the fastest rate since March. Finally, the 12-month outlook for production was little-changed from July's 79-month low.

Polish Manufacturing Activity Contracts the Most since 2013
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in July of 2019 from 48.4 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48. The reading pointed to the largest contraction in factory activity since April of 2013, with new orders falling sharply and firms reducing output and employment levels. Also, input purchases declined at the sharpest rate in over six years, as stocks of inputs registered the first monthly contraction since September 2018. On the price front, input price inflation rose only fractionally, while output prices slowed for the fourth straight month and at the softest pace recorded on the current 33-month sequence of inflation.

Polish Manufacturing PMI Falls to 4-Month Low
The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in June 2019 from 48.8 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48.9. The reading pointed to the eighth successive month of contraction in factory activity and the strongest since February. New orders declined further and the most in 2019 so far, mainly due to domestic demand, given that exports fell at the slowest rate in seven months. As a result, output was cut steeply. On a more positive note, employment rose for the first time in five months; and stocks of purchases increased for the ninth straight month. On the price front, input inflation was the slowest since October 2016, linked to the stronger zloty-euro exchange rate. Also, output prices rose the least in the current 32-month sequence of inflation. Looking ahead, sentiment was the weakest since December 2012.

Poland Manufacturing PMI
The Markit Poland Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 200 manufacturing companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Poland Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence -4.90 -3.30 24.90 -21.90 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.00 46.70 55.90 45.60 points [+]
Industrial Production 1.40 3.50 23.50 -15.30 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.60 1.40 8.40 -6.80 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.50 5.70 22.50 -15.80 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.20 81.80 83.50 67.40 percent [+]
New Orders 99.80 103.70 202.50 67.50 points [+]
Changes in Inventories 6728.50 11269.00 16249.10 -4937.40 PLN Million [+]
Car Production 33.40 36.10 85.50 4.00 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 52499.00 45375.00 56701.00 15750.00 [+]
Internet Speed 12609.78 12350.00 12754.88 1605.26 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 6362131.00 6321317.00 8712238.00 2628566.00 IP [+]
Steel Production 730.00 690.00 1250.00 433.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -6.10 2.20 21.40 -21.70 percent [+]
Cement Production 1621.00 1801.00 2037.00 189.00 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 68.89 68.16 68.89 4.28 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 37.00 37.00 53.00 37.00 [+]
Corporate Profits 133466.20 91888.30 168721.40 8747.00 PLN Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 33.00 72.00 24.00 [+]
Electricity Production 13824.00 12829.00 16381.00 11068.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 60.00 60.00 62.00 34.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 36.00 36.00 70.00 24.00 [+]