The retail price index in the Philippines increased by 1.4 percent year-on-year in February 2019, the least since March 2016, following a 2 percent rise in the previous month. Cost rose at a softer rate for most commodity groups: food (1.1 percent vs 2.1 percent in January); beverages and tobacco (4.8 percent vs 6.6 percent); crude materials (4.9 percent vs 5.4 percent); chemicals (1.1 percent vs 1.2 percent); manufactured goods (1.8 percent vs 1.9 percent); machinery and transport equipment (1.3 percent vs 1.6 percent); and miscellaneous manufactured articles (1 percent vs 1.2 percent). In contrast, prices of mineral fuels, lubricants and related material rebounded firmly (0.7 percent vs -0.6 percent). On a monthly basis, the retail price index fell 0.1 percent in February, after a 0.4 percent rise in January. Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines averaged 7.46 percent from 1980 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 79.50 percent in September of 1984 and a record low of -3.13 percent in November of 1999.
Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines is expected to be 1.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Philippines Retail Price Index YoY is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.