Philippines - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 6.40 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.2 3.3 percent
Interest Rate 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 percent
Balance of Trade -3546064.93 -3480000 -3120000 -3020000 -2890000 -3480000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 41 41 40 40 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 54.07
 53.66 53.87 54.08 54.29 55.14
Stock Market 7383.00
points		 7725 7621 7518 7417 7024
Government Bond 10y 6.83
percent		 6.66 6.96 7.28 7.61 9.07
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30
percent		 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.00
percent		 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6
GDP 313.60
USD Billion		 321 321 325 325 330
GDP Constant Prices 2352509.00
PHP Million		 2256822 2293489 2279557 2507775 2613555
Gross National Product 2728917.00
PHP Million		 2713576 2739969 2869781 2909026 3122342
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 695414.08
PHP Million		 624010 707470 722073 741311 806200
GDP per capita 2891.36
USD		 2970 2970 3063 3063 3170
GDP per capita PPP 7599.19
USD		 7627 7627 7900 7900 8400
GDP From Agriculture 146315.01
PHP Million		 138275 185849 166866 155972 211784
GDP From Construction 260401.00
PHP Million		 209542 236150 208337 277587 269106
GDP From Manufacturing 525944.46
PHP Million		 486589 598967 566568 560657 682555
GDP From Mining 28252.08
PHP Million		 17968 18387 21991 30117 20953
Gdp From Public Administration 109633.48
PHP Million		 84547 95708 88504 116869 109064
Gdp From Services 1378389.00
PHP Million		 1271232 1359761 1295733 1469363 1549522
GDP From Transport 80303.47
PHP Million		 59730 65739 75791 85603 74913
GDP From Utilities 74429.53
PHP Million		 81371 69036 69377 79342 78671
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40
percent		 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.2
Employed Persons 40659.00
Thousand 		40659 41300 41650 41960 43700
Unemployed Persons 2323.00
Thousand 		2323 2500 2520 2560 2700
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10
percent		 60.1 61.2 62 62.4 64
Wages 10113.00
PHP/Month		 11500 11500 12000 12000 12500
Wages in Manufacturing 1251.70
Index Points		 1700 1750 1300 1450 1950
Population 104.90
Million		 106 106 106 106 107
Employment Rate 94.60
percent		 94.6 94.2 94.1 94.6 94.3
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 6.40
percent		 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.2 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90
percent		 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 118.50
Index Points		 119 120 122 122 128
Core Consumer Prices 116.10
Index Points		 116 116 118 119 126
Core Inflation Rate 4.80
percent		 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.4 4.1
GDP Deflator 183.78
Index Points		 186 190 183 185 193
Producer Prices 133.00
Index Points		 134 134 135 137 140
Producer Prices Change 0.40
percent		 1.2 1.8 2 2.1 2
Food Inflation 8.50
percent		 7.7 6.9 5.5 4.9 3.9
Export Prices 92.52
Price Index		 91.8 110 105 95.8 111
CPI Housing Utilities 111.40
Index Points		 114 114 115 115 122
CPI Transportation 106.20
Index Points		 105 106 108 109 114
Import Prices 117.52
Price Index		 120 121 117 118 128
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.00
percent		 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5
Money Supply M0 1029049.56
PHP Million		 1035000 1044000 1056000 1062000 1109000
Money Supply M1 3727219.84
PHP Million		 3810000 3920000 4050000 4130000 4560000
Money Supply M2 10638540.33
PHP Million		 10740000 10920000 11030000 11140000 11880000
Money Supply M3 11103178.87
PHP Million		 11150000 11210000 11250000 11360000 12100000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 77830.00
USD Million		 77900 78900 79100 79300 82500
Banks Balance Sheet 1136.30
PHP Billion		 1154 1167 1122 1134 1280
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent		 3.75 3.88 4 4 4
Lending Rate 4.50
percent		 4.75 4.88 5 5 5
Loans To Banks 211367.05
PHP Million		 225000 237000 228000 241000 299000
Loans To Private Sector 6862360.57
PHP Million 		6910000 7100000 7370000 7550000 9300000
Cash Reserve Ratio 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 17.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4683.50
PHP Billion		 4830 4875 4900 4915 5090
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3546064.93
USD Thousand		 -3480000 -3120000 -3020000 -2890000 -3480000
Exports 5851324.67
USD Thousand		 5770000 5830000 5850000 5890000 6100000
Imports 9397389.59
USD Thousand		 9250000 8950000 8870000 8780000 9580000
Current Account -823.78
USD Million		 -182 855 -182 -385 589
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent		 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.5
External Debt 73097.87
USD Million		 72000 72000 73000 73000 73500
Capital Flows 0.86
USD Million		 8.8 9.5 12.1 7.3 12
Remittances 2401000.00
USD Thousand		 2410000 2480000 2520000 2590000 2900000
Tourist Arrivals 601322.00
 645100 662000 677000 615000 691000
Gold Reserves 196.40
Tonnes		 196 196 196 196 197
Terrorism Index 7.13
 7.2 7.2 7.25 7.25 7.1
Foreign Direct Investment 831.00
USD Million		 840 890 750 790 1050
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K		 15 15 15 15 30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10
percent		 41 41 40 40 39
Government Budget -2.20
percent of GDP		 -3 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.2
Government Budget Value -86400.00
PHP Million		 -42100 -82000 -46000 -60000 -87000
Government Spending 308024.77
PHP Million		 226070 218552 252128 328354 249051
Government Revenues 241743.00
PHP Million		 295000 268000 242000 235000 265000
Fiscal Expenditure 328126.00
PHP Million		 273000 280000 288000 295000 319000
Military Expenditure 4507.80
USD Million		 4800 4800 5000 5000 6200
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 30.10
Index Points		 30.1 35 38 42 50
Industrial Production 12.20
percent		 16.7 9.5 6.6 7.5 5.3
Capacity Utilization 84.23
percent		 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.3 83.9
Changes in Inventories -7153.45
PHP Million		 -3500 4700 24500 19600 19300
Internet Speed 5450.74
KBps		 6300 6900 7250 7390 8900
IP Addresses 1536948.00
IP		 1540000 1560000 1574000 1579000 1600000
Total Vehicle Sales 6975.00
 6500 6300 6600 6900 8900
Manufacturing Pmi 51.90
 52.1 52.5 52.3 52.7 54.4
Ease of Doing Business 113.00
 118 118 123 123 126
Corruption Index 34.00
Points		 33 33 34 34 32
Corruption Rank 111.00
 112 112 114 114 117
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points		 4.35 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.32
Competitiveness Rank 56.00
 56 56 55 55 53
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.10
Index Points		 -7.1 -7.5 -5.8 2.1 7
Retail Sales Yoy 4.20
percent		 4.9 4.8 4.2 3.9 4
Consumer Spending 1566498.00
PHP Million		 1546890 1573478 1641463 1669887 1793063
Personal Savings 4617753.79
Million PHP		 4690000 4720000 4810000 4890000 5660000
Bank Lending Rate 5.90
percent		 6.15 6.28 6.4 6.4 6.4
Retail Sales Mom 0.10
percent		 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1
Consumer Credit 318.96
PHP Billion		 327 333 345 353 375
Gasoline Prices 1.04
USD/Liter		 1.06 1 0.95 0.89 0.71
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 12682.00
PHP/SQ. METRE		 11100 11700 11400 10880 14000
Building Permits 40182.00
 37500 38300 38900 39400 41000
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.36
percent		 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67
percent		 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69
percent		 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 244.42
mm		 291 237 110 211 210
Temperature 25.79
celsius		 26.95 25.98 25.59 26.31 27.07