Philippines - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 5.20 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.3 percent
Interest Rate 3.50 3.75 3.75 4 4 4 percent
Balance of Trade -3700751.30 -3217156 -3052000 -3211596 -3210645 -2740000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 41 41 40 40 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 53.30
53.99 54.61 55.23 55.86 58.45
Stock Market 7399.61
points
7072 6806 6550 6304 5408
Government Bond 10y 6.40
percent
7.29 8.37 9.61 11.04 19.22
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80
percent
6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.6
GDP 313.60
USD Billion
321 321 325 325 330
GDP Constant Prices 2253539.00
PHP Million
2256822 2293489 2402273 2295719 2608665
Gross National Product 2694630.00
PHP Million
2713576 2739969 2872476 2755948 3116501
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 678002.38
PHP Million
624010 707470 722751 612798 804692
GDP per capita 2891.36
USD
2970 2970 3063 3063 3170
GDP per capita PPP 7599.19
USD
7627 7627 7900 7900 8400
GDP From Agriculture 157444.22
PHP Million
138275 185849 167836 155998 211388
GDP From Construction 195843.19
PHP Million
209542 236150 208769 246413 268602
GDP From Manufacturing 533765.45
PHP Million
486589 598967 568994 531734 681278
GDP From Mining 20186.99
PHP Million
17968 18387 21519 33865 20914
Gdp From Public Administration 83102.42
PHP Million
84547 95708 88587 101825 108860
Gdp From Services 1219503.00
PHP Million
1271232 1359761 1299990 1381313 1546623
GDP From Transport 70380.05
PHP Million
59730 65739 75025 81146 74772
GDP From Utilities 64856.80
PHP Million
81371 69036 69137 76567 78524
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.50
percent
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.2
Employed Persons 40896.00
Thousand
41065 41300 41968 41959 43700
Unemployed Persons 2360.00
Thousand
2312 2500 2302 2332 2700
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90
percent
60.6 61.2 62 62.4 64
Wages 10113.00
PHP/Month
11500 11500 12000 12000 12500
Wages in Manufacturing 1650.06
Index Points
1700 1750 1300 1450 1950
Population 104.90
Million
106 106 106 106 107
Employment Rate 94.50
percent
94.3 94.2 94.4 94.5 94.3
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.20
percent
4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.80
Index Points
118 118 120 121 126
Core Consumer Prices 115.20
Index Points
116 116 118 119 125
Core Inflation Rate 4.30
percent
3.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.8
GDP Deflator 182.62
Index Points
186 199 187 186 207
Producer Prices 133.98
Index Points
134 133 134 132 135
Producer Prices Change -1.80
percent
1.5 0.8 1.2 -0.1 1.2
Food Inflation 6.10
percent
5.7 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9
Export Prices 104.93
Price Index
110 107 105 98.8 111
CPI Housing Utilities 110.20
Index Points
112 112 114 114 120
CPI Transportation 104.70
Index Points
104 105 107 109 112
Import Prices 117.10
Price Index
120 121 116 114 128
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.50
percent
3.75 3.75 4 4 4
Money Supply M0 1059473.00
PHP Million
994782 1000000 1142784 1168032 1080000
Money Supply M1 3752451.00
PHP Million
3915209 4038201 4160910 4283275 5486793
Money Supply M2 10572988.00
PHP Million
10920752 11168684 11417774 11666287 14094421
Money Supply M3 11032673.00
PHP Million
11403511 11668255 11934291 12199816 14798496
Foreign Exchange Reserves 77675.00
USD Million
81200 81300 82500 83000 84000
Banks Balance Sheet 1150.70
PHP Billion
1190 1250 1122 1122 1430
Deposit Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.5
Lending Rate 4.00
percent
4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5
Loans To Banks 253709.00
PHP Million
246463 305000 246361 246331 384000
Loans To Private Sector 6678118.00
PHP Million
6990185 6110000 7465829 7700722 7160000
Cash Reserve Ratio 18.00
percent
18 18 18.2 18 17.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4683.50
PHP Billion
4719 4840 4723 4725 5090
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3700751.30
USD Thousand
-3217156 -3052000 -3211596 -3210645 -2740000
Exports 5761742.45
USD Thousand
5219284 5508000 5217850 5218562 5990000
Imports 9462493.74
USD Thousand
8436440 8560000 8429446 8429207 8730000
Current Account -203.88
USD Million
-182 855 -182 -385 589
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
External Debt 73097.87
USD Million
72000 72000 73000 73000 73500
Capital Flows 6.31
USD Million
8.8 13 8.8 7.3 12
Remittances 2469000.00
USD Thousand
2388774 2900000 2364785 2364649 3340000
Tourist Arrivals 591137.00
608400 680000 603300 603200 731000
Gold Reserves 196.40
Tonnes
196 199 197 197 205
Terrorism Index 7.13
7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1
Foreign Direct Investment 14208.40
PHP Million
46103 173000 27701 36664 197000
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15 15 15 15 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10
percent
41 41 40 40 39
Government Budget -2.20
percent of GDP
-3 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.2
Government Budget Value -32873.00
PHP Million
-31628 -82000 -36458 -36179 -87000
Government Spending 236740.19
PHP Million
226070 218552 252365 293949 248585
Government Revenues 258992.00
PHP Million
241401 228000 235342 236010 245000
Fiscal Expenditure 291865.00
PHP Million
273029 310000 271801 272189 332000
Military Expenditure 4507.80
USD Million
4800 4800 5000 5000 6200
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 39.30
Index Points
45.8 47 41.89 41.35 50
Industrial Production 21.30
percent
16.7 9.5 6.6 7.9 5.3
Capacity Utilization 84.25
percent
84.23 84.5 84.78 84.23 83.9
Changes in Inventories 26887.92
PHP Million
24253 25376 24232 19559 19991
Internet Speed 5450.74
KBps
7332 7626 7914 8198 10763
IP Addresses 1536948.00
IP
1646837 1663466 1679262 1694810 1839761
Total Vehicle Sales 9401.00
9887 17785 9773 9772 21450
Manufacturing Pmi 52.90
51.8 52.5 52.3 53 54.4
Ease of Doing Business 113.00
118 90 124 123 83
Corruption Index 34.00
Points
33 33 34 35 38
Corruption Rank 111.00
109 109 118 119 110
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.35 4.35 4.35 4.34 4.34
Competitiveness Rank 56.00
56 56 55 55 53
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 3.80
Index Points
11 12 5.8 6.2 7
Retail Sales Yoy 3.40
percent
3.2 3.3 3.5 3.4 4
Consumer Spending 1541280.00
PHP Million
1546890 1573478 1643004 1581030 1789708
Personal Savings 4544295.00
Million PHP
4659881 4751128 4841278 4930368 5766454
Bank Lending Rate 6.03
percent
6.28 6.28 6.53 6.53 6.53
Retail Sales Mom 0.10
percent
0.25 -0.2 0.26 0.26 0.1
Consumer Credit 302.29
PHP Billion
316 291 330 337 346
Gasoline Prices 1.01
USD/Liter
0.96 0.9 0.85 0.81 0.45
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 12682.00
PHP/SQ. METRE
11111 12800 11468 10889 14000
Building Permits 36002.00
35405 36200 35299 35268 39900
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.36
percent
11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67
percent
7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69
percent
3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 244.42
mm
291 237 110 211 210
Temperature 25.79
celsius
26.95 25.98 25.59 26.31 27.07