This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 6.70 5.3 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.3 percent
Interest Rate 4.75 5 5 5 4.5 3.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3927000.00 -3120000 -3020000 -2890000 -3220000 -3480000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 41 40 40 40 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 52.76
 54.53 54.74 54.95 55.16 56
Stock Market 6952.59
points		 7121 7021 6923 6826 6452
Government Bond 10y 7.44
percent		 7.56 7.93 8.32 8.72 10.55
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40
percent		 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.10
percent		 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.6
GDP 313.60
USD Billion		 321 325 325 325 330
GDP Constant Prices 2221342.94
PHP Million		 2423078 2279557 2512193 2372394 2761228
Gross National Product 2784498.00
PHP Million		 2739969 2869781 2909026 2973844 3122342
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 704050.49
PHP Million		 707470 721686 741326 751926 806200
GDP per capita 2891.36
USD		 2970 3063 3063 3063 3170
GDP per capita PPP 7599.19
USD		 7627 7900 7900 7900 8400
GDP From Agriculture 163797.00
PHP Million		 185849 166866 185830 174935 211784
GDP From Construction 232896.53
PHP Million		 236150 208337 277587 248733 269106
GDP From Manufacturing 430229.00
PHP Million		 598967 566568 559948 459485 682555
GDP From Mining 17207.00
PHP Million		 18387 21991 30117 18377 20953
GDP From Public Administration 96479.00
PHP Million		 95708 88504 116869 103040 109064
GDP From Services 1316267.00
PHP Million		 1359761 1295733 1472021 1405773 1549522
GDP From Transport 146883.00
PHP Million		 65739 75791 192108 156871 74913
GDP From Utilities 82731.00
PHP Million		 69036 69377 79258 88357 78671
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40
percent		 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2
Employed Persons 40659.00
Thousand 		41300 41650 41960 42550 43700
Unemployed Persons 2323.00
Thousand 		2500 2520 2560 2585 2700
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10
percent		 61.2 62 62.4 63 64
Wages 10113.00
PHP/Month		 11500 12000 12000 12000 12500
Wages in Manufacturing 1686.41
Index Points		 1750 1300 1450 1600 1950
Population 104.90
Million		 106 106 106 106 107
Employment Rate 94.60
percent		 94.2 94.1 94.6 94.7 94.3
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 6.70
percent		 5.3 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent		 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 119.80
Index Points		 119 122 122 124 128
Core Consumer Prices 117.00
Index Points		 116 118 119 121 126
Core Inflation Rate 4.90
percent		 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.1
GDP Deflator 190.10
Index Points		 190 183 185 188 193
Producer Prices 132.10
Index Points		 134 135 134 133 135
Producer Prices Change -0.20
percent		 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.3
Food Inflation 9.40
percent		 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.5 3.9
Export Prices 91.59
Price Index		 110 105 95.8 93.5 111
CPI Housing Utilities 112.30
Index Points		 113 115 115 116 121
CPI Transportation 108.10
Index Points		 106 108 109 111 113
Import Prices 114.15
Price Index		 121 117 118 122 128
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.75
percent		 5 5 5 4.5 3.75
Money Supply M0 1065815.07
PHP Million		 1044000 1056000 1062000 1075000 1109000
Money Supply M1 3713749.39
PHP Million		 3920000 4050000 4130000 4270000 4560000
Money Supply M2 10695186.66
PHP Million		 10920000 11030000 11140000 11270000 11880000
Money Supply M3 11157031.36
PHP Million		 11210000 11250000 11360000 11450000 12100000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 74722.00
USD Million		 78900 79100 79300 79700 82500
Banks Balance Sheet 1181.50
PHP Billion		 1167 1122 1134 1145 1280
Deposit Interest Rate 4.25
percent		 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.75 3
Lending Rate 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 4.5 3.75
Loans To Banks 278961.54
PHP Million		 237000 228000 241000 263000 299000
Loans To Private Sector 7036275.30
PHP Million 		7100000 7370000 7550000 7810000 9300000
Cash Reserve Ratio 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 17.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4653.90
PHP Billion		 4875 4900 4915 4934 5090
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3927000.00
USD Thousand		 -3120000 -3020000 -2890000 -3220000 -3480000
Exports 5827150.00
USD Thousand		 5830000 5850000 5890000 5930000 6100000
Imports 9753910.00
USD Thousand		 8950000 8870000 8780000 9150000 9580000
Current Account -823.78
USD Million		 855 -182 -385 153 589
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent		 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2
External Debt 73097.87
USD Million		 72000 73000 73000 73000 73500
Capital Flows 0.86
USD Million		 9.5 12.1 7.3 6.5 12
Remittances 2237000.00
USD Thousand		 2480000 2520000 2590000 2650000 2900000
Tourist Arrivals 512240.00
 662000 677000 615000 643000 691000
Gold Reserves 197.90
Tonnes		 196 196 196 197 197
Terrorism Index 7.13
 7.2 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.1
Foreign Direct Investment 752.00
USD Million		 890 750 790 900 1050
Crude Oil Production 13.00
BBL/D/1K		 15 13.02 13.02 13.02 30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10
percent		 41 40 40 40 39
Government Budget -2.20
percent of GDP		 -3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.2
Government Budget Value -96247.00
PHP Million		 -12000 -46000 -60000 13000 -54000
Government Spending 250174.31
PHP Million		 218552 252128 328354 267186 249051
Government Revenues 202351.00
PHP Million		 268000 242000 235000 275000 265000
Fiscal Expenditure 298598.00
PHP Million		 280000 288000 295000 262000 319000
Military Expenditure 4507.80
USD Million		 4800 5000 5000 5000 6200
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 30.10
Index Points		 35 38 42 43 50
Industrial Production 3.70
percent		 9.5 6.6 7.5 7.9 5.3
Capacity Utilization 84.22
percent		 84.5 84.7 84.3 83.9 83.9
Changes in Inventories -1813.03
PHP Million		 4700 24500 19600 -6800 19300
Internet Speed 5450.74
KBps		 6900 7250 7390 7450 8900
IP Addresses 1536948.00
IP		 1560000 1574000 1579000 1567000 1600000
Total Vehicle Sales 9441.00
 6300 6600 6900 7100 8900
Manufacturing Pmi 54.00
 52.5 52.3 52.7 53 54.4
Ease of Doing Business 124.00
 118 123 121 123 126
Corruption Index 34.00
Points		 34 34 34 34 34
Corruption Rank 111.00
 111 111 111 111 111
Competitiveness Index 62.13
Points		 62.63 62.63 62.63 62.63 65.13
Competitiveness Rank 56.00
 56 56 56 56 56
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.10
Index Points		 -7.5 -5.8 2.1 3.4 7
Retail Sales Yoy 4.30
percent		 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.5 4
Consumer Spending 1479834.36
PHP Million		 1756526 1572894 1659725 1580463 2001657
Personal Savings 4677797.59
Million PHP		 4720000 4810000 4890000 4940000 5660000
Bank Lending Rate 6.21
percent		 6.21 6.21 6.21 5.71 4.96
Retail Sales Mom 0.90
percent		 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.1
Consumer Credit 318.96
PHP Billion		 333 345 353 362 375
Gasoline Prices 1.06
USD/Liter		 1.04 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.91
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 12682.00
PHP/SQ. METRE		 11700 11400 10880 10690 14000
Building Permits 40182.00
 38300 38900 39400 40100 41000
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.36
percent		 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67
percent		 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69
percent		 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 244.42
mm		 237 110 211 211 210
Temperature 25.79
celsius		 25.98 25.59 26.31 26.31 27.07



Philippines - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook