The Norwegian economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, reversing an upwardly revised 0.6 percent growth in the previous period and missing market expectations of a 0.6 percent expansion. This marked the first quarterly GDP contraction since the third quarter of 2016, due to declines in both fixed investment (-1.2 percent vs 2.3 percent), and petroleum activities and ocean transport (-2.9 percent, the same as in Q4), while net external demand contributed negatively to GDP. Imports rose 2.4 percent (vs 1.8 percent in Q4), faster than an increase of 2.2 percent in exports (vs -0.7 percent in Q4). Meantime, household consumption growth was unchanged (at 0.5 percent) and government spending advanced firmly (1 percent vs 0.2 percent). Mainland GDP, which excludes the largely petroleum-based offshore sector, expanded 0.3 percent in the first quarter, much slower than a 1.1 percent growth in Q4. GDP Growth Rate in Norway averaged 0.63 percent from 1978 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 1994 and a record low of -2.60 percent in the third quarter of 1987.
GDP Growth Rate in Norway is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Norway to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Norway GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.