Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.3 2 1.9 2.4 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.5 percent
Balance of Trade 21989.66 8900 19800 25400 6300 14900 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.20 34 34 32 32 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 8.17
 8.3 8.48 8.66 8.85 9.65
Stock Market 994.60
points		 974 946 918 891 791
Government Bond 10Y 1.73
percent		 1.88 1.99 2.11 2.23 2.79
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent		 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30
percent		 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.5
GDP 398.83
USD Billion		 380 381 459 459 478
GDP Constant Prices 812179.00
NOK Million		 817816 825665 829235 823399 862387
Gross National Product 848278.00
NOK Million		 806973 888958 866092 830695 928495
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 185182.00
NOK Million		 194903 199655 189071 199627 208534
GDP per capita 91218.62
USD		 91500 91500 92200 92200 93000
GDP per capita PPP 64800.06
USD		 65000 65000 65800 65800 66300
GDP From Agriculture 5389.00
NOK Million		 5360 5474 5502 5434 5718
GDP From Construction 48589.00
NOK Million		 48482 49664 49609 48727 51872
GDP From Manufacturing 51869.00
NOK Million		 51547 53181 52958 52747 55546
GDP From Mining 1346.00
NOK Million		 1382 1305 1374 1360 1363
GDP From Public Administration 47518.00
NOK Million		 47308 48077 48516 47834 50215
GDP From Utilities 4973.00
NOK Million		 4951 5038 5077 4935 5262
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent		 4 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.7
Employed Persons 2682.00
Thousand 		2696 2704 2712 2718 2760
Unemployed Persons 79977.00
 80280 79420 79250 72205 78250
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.50
percent		 69.86 71.6 69.6 70.2 72.1
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent		 1.02 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.87
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent		 8.95 8.97 8.96 8.96 8.96
Productivity 122.81
Index Points		 122 122 123 122 123
Labour Costs 120.80
Index Points		 120 123 123 129 127
Job Vacancies 68400.00
 64889 63949 70788 74025 68165
Wages in Manufacturing 158.70
Index Points		 158 154 156 162 160
Wage Growth 4.68
percent		 7.5 6.08 5.04 5.92 5.88
Population 5.30
Million		 5.3 5.3 5.36 5.36 5.41
Retirement Age Women 62.00
 62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
 62 62 62 62 62
Part Time Employment 663.10
Thousand		 644 651 661 656 653
Wages 44310.00
NOK/Month		 45200 45200 46000 45842 46600
Employment Change 0.50
percent		 0.42 0.41 0.38 0.37 0.33
Employment Rate 66.80
percent		 67.43 67.1 67.2 67.75 67.71
Full Time Employment 1889.30
Thousand		 1930 1909 1900 1921 1919
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent		 2.3 2 1.9 2.4 2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 109.10
Index Points		 109 109 110 112 113
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.50
Index Points		 108 108 109 111 112
Core Consumer Prices 106.30
Index Points		 106 107 107 107 111
Core Inflation Rate 1.10
percent		 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.07 2
GDP Deflator 105.08
Index Points		 106 106 106 106 106
Producer Prices 260.60
Index Points		 230 249 251 268 266
Producer Prices Change 20.00
percent		 3.4 3 2.9 2.8 3.2
Export Prices 151.50
Index Points		 151 153 154 153 154
Import Prices 143.10
Index Points		 144 146 146 146 146
Food Inflation 0.40
percent		 2 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent		 0.16 0.5 0.17 0.18 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 112.80
Index Points		 110 111 114 116 116
CPI Transportation 109.90
Index Points		 108 108 109 113 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.50
percent		 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.5
Interbank Rate 1.06
percent		 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 2.06
Money Supply M0 74875.00
NOK Million		 90187 87058 87267 87031 87170
Money Supply M1 2057316.00
NOK Million		 2059062 2058956 2058948 2058948 2058948
Money Supply M2 2208440.00
NOK Million		 2236222 2257670 2278879 2300135 2506499
Foreign Exchange Reserves 536840.00
NOK Million		 537194 537299 537067 537148 537140
Loans to Private Sector 1761178.00
NOK Million		 1791849 1812403 1831122 1848171 1953848
Deposit Interest Rate -0.50
percent		 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 0.5
Lending Rate 1.50
percent		 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5
Loan Growth 6.00
percent		 5.97 5.92 5.87 5.83 5.67
Private Debt to GDP 286.78
percent		 278 278 272 272 266
Central Bank Balance Sheet 8903639.00
NOK Millions		 9165168 9318816 9457161 9596621 10885909
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 21989.66
NOK Million		 8900 19800 25400 6300 14900
Exports 80851.86
NOK Million		 67900 79200 80100 75400 85100
Imports 58862.20
NOK Million		 59000 59400 54700 69100 70200
Current Account 60999.00
NOK Million		 44825 47822 53375 52003 50481
Current Account to GDP 5.10
percent		 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.9 7.5
External Debt 5204408.00
NOK Million		 5205718 5206972 5208000 5207172 5207535
Terms of Trade 105.87
Index Points		 105 105 106 105 105
Capital Flows 131480.00
NOK Million		 55989 59451 73640 72887 68838
Crude Oil Production 1549.00
BBL/D/1K		 1578 1578 1578 1578 1578
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0.24 0.32 0.4 0.47 1.42
Weapons Sales 134.00
USD Million		 166 178 166 154 183
Foreign Direct Investment -54502.00
NOK Million		 -14491 -22077 -24105 -22709 -21705
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.20
percent		 34 34 32 32 30
Government Budget 4.40
percent of GDP		 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.1
Government Budget Value -10110.00
NOK Million		 -317 -12665 -18678 -15080 -34675
Government Spending 192856.00
NOK Million		 192778 196101 196906 194614 204823
Government Spending to GDP 50.30
percent		 50 50 49.7 49.7 49.4
Government Revenues 335796.00
NOK Million		 301658 318765 335137 332785 328319
Government Debt 633565.00
NOK Million		 638394 549114 626435 541557 517418
Fiscal Expenditure 345906.00
NOK Million		 301975 328172 353815 347865 362995
Military Expenditure 6329.60
USD Million		 6283 6380 6395 6410 6617
Asylum Applications 145.00
persons		 951 954 952 952 952
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.30
Index Points		 6.9 7.4 8 8.5 4
Manufacturing PMI 55.80
 56.09 56.08 56.08 56.08 56.08
Industrial Production -1.60
percent		 2.6 4 4.1 3.8 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -0.90
percent		 -0.7 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4
Manufacturing Production 0.50
percent		 3.2 4.5 4.2 4 3
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent		 78.08 78.07 78.08 78.08 78.07
New Orders 146.10
Index Points		 129 137 126 138 137
Changes in Inventories 54179.00
NOK Million		 39171 38544 38402 38370 38360
Bankruptcies 421.00
Companies and Individuals		 433 431 432 431 431
Car Registrations 16610.00
 15699 15730 15717 15719 15719
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps		 28813 29776 30644 31522 38804
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP		 2716964 2715078 2718238 2718019 2719570
Mining Production -1.30
percent		 1.66 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72
Steel Production 46.61
Thousand Tonnes		 49.64 49.3 49.34 49.33 49.34
Competitiveness Index 5.40
Points		 5.43 5.43 5.38 5.36 5.35
Competitiveness Rank 11.00
 12 12 11 11 11
Ease of Doing Business 8.00
 8 8 8 9 7
Electricity Production 10547.00
Gigawatt-hour		 11769 14767 12312 10369 12592
Corruption Index 85.00
Points		 86 85 86 86 86
Corruption Rank 3.00
 4 4 4 4 3
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 19.60
Index Points		 19 17 14 14 17
Retail Sales MoM 1.80
percent		 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.14 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 3.20
percent		 3.8 2.5 2.2 2.34 2
Consumer Spending 357037.00
NOK Million		 357821 365408 364535 360307 381660
Disposable Personal Income 269803.00
NOK Million		 277492 291670 276953 291628 294950
Personal Savings 7.30
percent		 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.5 7
Consumer Credit 3338708.00
NOK Million		 3400212 3446077 3491807 3537407 3986303
Gasoline Prices 1.95
USD/Liter		 1.85 1.74 1.65 1.55 0.87
Household Spending 0.10
percent		 -0.3 0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.5
Households Debt To Gdp 102.30
percent of GDP		 103 103 103 103 103
Households Debt To Income 197.54
percent		 198 199 200 200 205
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 116.40
Index Points		 119 119 118 118 118
Housing Starts 2435.00
 2547 2552 2554 2554 2554
New Home Sales 26514.00
 25720 25450 25235 25084 24683
Building Permits 2181.00
 2661 2621 2614 2617 2617
Home Ownership Rate 82.60
percent		 83.39 83.31 83.48 83.65 84.12
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 26 26 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent		 38.52 38.52 38.75 39 39
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent		 22.3 22.3 22.25 22 23
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent		 14.17 14.17 14.38 14.45 14.44
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent		 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -2.91
celsius		 8.92 -3.9 -7.82 3.82 0.12
Precipitation 163.15
mm		 94.68 100 78.35 90.37 85.12