The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI decreased to 56.8 in December 2019 from 57.7 in the prior month, but still pointing to a marked monthly improvement in the health of the Nigerian private sector. Output and new orders continued to advance solidly. Meantime, employment growth was the fastest in a year-and-a-half, and purchasing activity rose to the greatest extent since May 2018. In terms of prices, input prices continued to increase sharply, mainly attributed to the border closure and scarcity of certain products. Wages and salaries also rose and at the fastest pace in a year. As a result, output prices were also raised, extending the current sequence of inflation to four years. Looking ahead, business optimism improved to an 11-month high, with respondents planning to invest in and expand their business over the coming year to support output growth. Composite Pmi in Nigeria averaged 53.76 points from 2014 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 59.10 points in May of 2018 and a record low of 46.30 points in August of 2016. source: Markit Economics

Composite Pmi in Nigeria is expected to be 55.80 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite Pmi in Nigeria to stand at 55.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI is projected to trend around 54.60 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
56.80 57.70 59.10 46.30 2014 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Nigeria Private Sector Growth Nears 1-1/2-Year High
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 57.7 in November 2019 from 56.9 in the previous month. The reading pointed to the quickest expansion in the country's private sector since June last year, as output and new orders grew sharply. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation was modest and weaker than in October. On the price front, purchase cost inflation accelerated to a 13-month high, namely fabric, meat and raw material costs, partly linked to the closure of the border and shortages of inputs. Subsequently, output charges rose solidly and at the fastest pace in 11 months. Looking ahead, business sentiment ticked up and remained strongly positive, amid planned product launches, business expansion plans and marketing efforts.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth Remains Strong
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI edged down to 56.9 in October 2019 from 57.1 in the previous month, as new orders continued to rise sharply despite the rate of expansion slowing slightly. Also, output growth quickened for the third straight month and was the strongest in 13 months and employment rose solidly and at a faster pace. Meantime, purchasing activity went up further, helping support ongoing inventory building. In terms of prices, the rate of input cost inflation quickened, reflecting higher costs for raw materials and also the impact of border closure. As such, firms raised their output prices accordingly. Looking ahead, sentiment remained strongly positive, despite easing from the previous month.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth at 15-Month High
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 57.1 in September 2019 from 56.4 in the previous month, signalling a the sharpest monthly improvement in business conditions since June 2018. New order growth accelerated to a 15-month high, which led to an accumulation of backlogs of work for the fifth month running. Despite pressure on capacity, companies increased their staffing levels only modestly, and to a lesser extent than was seen in August. On the other hand, substantial growth of purchasing activity was recorded, helping to contribute to the sharpest accumulation of inventories since May 2018. On the price front, both input costs and output prices rose at slightly sharper rates in September. Looking ahead, optimism regarding the 12-month outlook for activity improved to a five-month high, due to planned investment and business expansions.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth at Over 1-Year High
The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI rose to 56.4 in August 2019 from 54.6 in the prior month, pointing to the strongest improvement in the health of the private sector since June 2018. New orders growth was the fastest in 14 months and output rose the most in nearly a year. In addition, employment increased at a solid pace, and one that was the fastest since June 2018. Purchasing activity went up the most in 14 months, and stocks of purchases also rose sharply, to the greatest extent in 2019 so far. Regarding prices, input costs were higher amid higher raw material prices, which led output prices to rise, albeit only marginally. Looking ahead, planned investment in new products and branches, as well as predictions of new order growth, supported optimism that activity will rise over the coming year.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth Slows in July
The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI edged down to 54.6 in July 2019 from 54.8 in the previous month, but still signalling a marked monthly improvement in business conditions across the Nigerian private sector. New business increased sharply, with the rate of growth quickening for the second month running. Output also rose at a marked pace, albeit one that was softer than in June and one of the slowest for two years. Also, employment rose modestly for the twenty-seventh successive month. Purchasing activity expanded at a sharp pace again in July, with inventories increasing to the greatest extent since January. In terms of prices, inflationary pressures remained relatively muted, despite both input costs and output prices rising at slightly faster rates than seen in June. Looking ahead, business expansion plans supported continued optimism that output will increase over the coming year, although sentiment dipped to a seven-month low.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth at 6-Month High: Markit
The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI increased to 54.8 in June 2019 from 52.9 in the previous month. The reading signalled a marked improvement in business conditions in the Nigerian private sector that was the strongest since December, as both new orders and output rose quicker. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation slowed and was only slight. On the price front, overall input costs rose only marginally and at the slowest pace since January 2015; and the rate of output charge inflation was at an 11-month low as some firms offered discounts to attract customers. Regarding business confidence, sentiment remained strong, linked to business expansion plans, including the opening of new outlets.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the private sector and is derived from a survey of 400 companies from agriculture, manufacturing, services, construction and retail. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a composite index based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the private sector activity compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Nigeria Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 30.30 29.00 41.10 -29.00 points [+]
Industrial Production -2.90 4.70 20.10 -20.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.00 4.70 24.60 -7.00 percent [+]
Internet Speed 3853.93 4129.28 4129.28 348.64 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 209207.00 194830.00 244394.00 29604.00 IP [+]
Leading Economic Index 45.90 45.50 53.00 45.50 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 60.80 59.30 61.10 41.90 points [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 17.00 20.00 20.00 3.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 131.00 146.00 170.00 120.00 [+]
Corruption Index 27.00 27.00 28.00 6.90 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 144.00 148.00 152.00 52.00 [+]
Changes In Inventories 156043.05 146816.73 178909.34 32488.05 NGN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 48.33 47.53 48.33 3.37 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 116.00 115.00 127.00 94.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 56.80 57.70 59.10 46.30 points [+]
Capacity Utilization 55.00 54.60 60.50 48.50 percent [+]
Services Pmi 62.10 60.10 62.30 41.00 points [+]
Mining Production 5.70 5.70 48.20 -34.10 percent [+]