The volume of total retail sales in New Zealand climbed 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2019, after a 0.2 percent advance in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 1.2 percent gain. It was the largest rise in retail sales since Q4 2018, boosted by electrical and electronic goods (4.4 percent vs 5.2 percent in Q2), which coincided with some promoting sales of big screen televisions before the Rugby World Cup in Japan, which started near the end of September. Other significant rises in sales were recorded for furniture, floor coverings, houseware & textiles (5.1 percent vs -3.7 percent); recreational goods (4 percent vs 6.1 percent) and pharmaceutical & other store-based retailing (2.3 percent vs 2.4 percent). In contrast, accommodation sales declined 1.4 percent after a 1.6 percent advance in Q2, while specialised food sales decreased 1.3 percent (vs -1.7 percent). On an annual basis, retail sales jumped 4.5 percent following a 2.9 percent expansion. Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand averaged 0.75 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in the third quarter of 2004 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009. source: Statistics New Zealand
Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand is expected to be 0.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.