New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade 294.00 -1000 620 370 260 710 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.20 21.5 21.5 20 20 21 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 0.68
0.66 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.57
Stock Market 8955.54
points
8841 8659 8482 8308 7648
Government Bond 10Y 2.79
percent
2.9 3.02 3.15 3.29 3.89
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70
percent
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6
GDP 205.85
USD Billion
215 215 225 225 250
GDP Constant Prices 61197.00
NZD Million
61688 62771 62849 61796 66142
Gross National Product 64823.00
NZD Million
63719 65919 66573 63820 69459
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15709.00
NZD Million
15390 15976 16133 15334 16834
GDP per capita 37852.87
USD
38100 38100 38500 38500 38900
GDP per capita PPP 36085.84
USD
36600 36600 37100 37100 37700
GDP From Agriculture 3205.00
NZD Million
3375 3310 3292 3433 3488
GDP From Construction 3804.00
NZD Million
3866 3945 3907 3780 4157
GDP From Manufacturing 5977.00
NZD Million
6026 6102 6138 6055 6430
GDP From Mining 763.00
NZD Million
773 798 784 758 841
GDP From Public Administration 2607.00
NZD Million
2561 2616 2677 2598 2757
GDP From Services 40801.00
NZD Million
40668 41664 41903 40909 43901
GDP From Transport 2826.00
NZD Million
2808 2894 2902 2802 3049
GDP From Utilities 1721.00
NZD Million
1732 1782 1767 1786 1877
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.40
percent
4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2
Employed Persons 2618.00
Thousand
2656 2673 2690 2706 2838
Unemployed Persons 119.00
Thousand
116 116 117 118 120
Employment Change 0.60
percent
1.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.80
percent
70.76 70.84 70.77 70.83 70.81
Labour Costs 1162.00
Index Points
1172 1177 1182 1186 1232
Productivity 167.97
Index Points
168 168 168 168 168
Job Vacancies 191.48
Index Points
190 190 189 189 189
Job Advertisements 43165.08
43325 43198 43169 43139 43092
Wages 31.03
NZD/Hour
31.55 31.57 32.04 32.27 34.49
Wages in Manufacturing 29.53
NZD/Hour
29.6 29.7 31.2 29.84 34
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour
16.5 16.5 18 18 20
Population 4.84
Million
4.91 4.91 5.1 5.1 5.2
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20
percent
11.57 11.75 11.73 11.65 11.68
Part Time Employment 554.00
Thousand
558 560 563 565 586
Employment Rate 67.70
percent
67.8 68.04 67.9 68.04 68.02
Full Time Employment 2062.00
Thousand
2091 2103 2116 2127 2216
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent
2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 1015.00
Index Points
1027 1028 1029 1029 1067
Core Consumer Prices 1015.00
Index Points
1012 1016 1022 1026 1038
Core Inflation Rate 1.01
percent
0.75 0.86 0.96 1.05 1.09
GDP Deflator 1181.00
Index Points
1188 1184 1187 1186 1186
Producer Prices 1113.00
Index Points
1123 1132 1129 1129 1130
Export Prices 1155.00
Index Points
1118 1109 1103 1100 1104
Import Prices 799.00
Index Points
815 824 831 839 874
Inflation Expectations 2.00
percent
1.91 1.91 1.94 1.92 1.91
Food Inflation 0.20
percent
0.13 0.1 1.5 1.2 1.2
Cpi Housing Utilities 1031.00
Index Points
1033 1038 1040 1045 1077
CPI Transportation 1020.00
Index Points
1011 1042 1036 1034 1081
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.35
percent
2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 3.6
Money Supply M0 6292.00
NZD Million
9382 9314 9316 9316 9316
Money Supply M1 65717.00
NZD Million
68299 69899 71454 72980 87574
Money Supply M3 295316.00
NZD Million
295263 295437 295457 295457 295432
Foreign Exchange Reserves 32240.00
NZD Million
31097 31209 31236 31227 31227
Banks Balance Sheet 532777.00
NZD Million
535671 536463 536615 536729 536758
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.45
Loans To Private Sector 110548.00
NZD Million
112053 113298 114442 115505 122822
Central Bank Balance Sheet 32203.00
NZD Million
30480 30749 30782 30757 30761
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 294.00
NZD Million
-1000 620 370 260 710
Exports 5415.00
NZD Million
4300 5910 5290 5410 6620
Imports 5121.00
NZD Million
5300 5290 4920 5150 5910
Current Account 180.00
NZD Million
-4509 -2922 89.48 -1182 -2881
Current Account to GDP -2.70
percent
-4.1 -4.1 -5.3 -5.3 -4.8
External Debt 273275.00
NZD Million
276068 277430 278968 280381 293560
Terms of Trade 1445.00
Index Points
137 132 133 131 126
Capital Flows 105.00
NZD Million
1861 1650 1086 1329 1672
Foreign Direct Investment 122.00
NZD Million
168 434 502 547 526
Tourist Arrivals 212245.00
293200 351600 298900 280900 303000
Terrorism Index 0.61
0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
Weapons Sales 4.00
USD Million
2.5 2.5 5 5 1.5
Crude Oil Production 23.00
BBL/D/1K
24.37 24.38 24.38 24.38 24.38
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.20
percent
21.5 21.5 20 20 21
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP
2 2 1.6 1.6 1
Government Budget Value 1831.00
NZD Million
5755 7164 6876 7164 10433
Government Spending 11499.00
NZD Million
11629 11782 11809 11476 12415
Government Revenues 104227.00
NZD Million
106404 108100 109038 109976 119251
Fiscal Expenditure 99812.00
NZD Million
100649 101512 102162 102812 108817
Military Expenditure 2225.60
USD Million
2300 2300 2450 2450 2480
Asylum Applications 24.00
Persons
20.67 19.97 20.35 20.22 20.25
Government Debt 61880.00
NZD Million
61000 61000 58000 58000 57000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -39.00
percent
-36.2 -32.2 -33.8 -33.6 -31
Manufacturing PMI 52.80
54.11 54.2 54.09 54.02 53.98
Industrial Production 3.10
percent
3.2 2.8 3 3.6 3.4
Capacity Utilization 92.80
percent
93.02 92.47 92.48 92.48 92.68
Changes in Inventories 565.00
NZD Million
183 163 174 182 184
Car Registrations 5998.00
5610 5515 5499 5485 5480
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps
20324 21208 22079 22937 30799
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP
1880073 1899649 1894925 1902392 1908450
Services Pmi 52.80
54.13 57.54 54.66 54.68 54.68
Steel Production 55.62
Thousand Tonnes
55.35 55.83 55.59 55.54 55.48
Competitiveness Index 5.37
Points
5.37 5.37 5.42 5.42 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 13.00
13 13 11 11 10
Composite Pmi 56.70
56.88 56.86 56.84 56.83 56.82
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
Corruption Index 89.00
Points
90 90 90 90 90
Corruption Rank 1.00
2 2 2 2 2
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.60
Index Points
107 108 108 108 108
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent
0.84 0.79 0.96 0.92 0.98
Retail Sales YoY 3.00
percent
3.56 3.05 4.13 4.16 3.98
Consumer Spending 37584.00
NZD Million
37718 38704 38599 37799 40783
Private Sector Credit 437926.00
NZD Million
443645 448315 452967 457504 498146
Bank Lending Rate 9.40
percent
9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.65
Households Debt To Gdp 91.80
Percent
91.47 91.38 91.28 91.21 90.74
Households Debt To Income 168.10
percent
168 169 169 169 169
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 3108.00
2972 3040 3013 3011 3016
Housing Index 0.90
percent
-1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 1.2
Construction Output 7.00
percent
4.2 3.7 3.8 4 4
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent
64.58 64.58 64.29 64.29 62.6
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius
6.69 11.86 14.61 10.45 10.62