The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand declined unexpectedly to -38.1 in June 2019 from -32.0 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -22.7. It was the lowest reading in eight months, as profit expectations fell further (-12.5 vs -9.6 in May) and pricing intentions dropped to its lowest since April last year (22.6 vs 28.5). Additionally, activity outlook (8 vs 8.5), capacity utilisation (5.3 vs 5.4) and investment intentions (2.5 vs 2.9) deteriorated while cost pressures were stable (at 49.7). On the other hand, employment intentions improved slightly (0.0 vs -0.3) and export expectations rose sharply (5.3 vs 0.0). Also, inflation expectations edged up from the previous month's 1-1/2 year low (1.87 vs 1.81). Among sectors, commercial construction intentions strengthened (4.8 vs 4.2) and residential rebounded from the prior month's 10-year low (0.0 vs -27.3). Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.61 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974.
Business Confidence in New Zealand is expected to be -38.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in New Zealand to stand at -25.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business Confidence is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.