The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI declined to 47.5 in January of 2021 from 49.3 in December 2020, indicating a solid deterioration in the sector and the fastest seen in four months, amid the coronavirus pandemic. Output and new orders both declined sharply, after having neared stabilisation at the end of 2020. Meanwhile, employment rose for the third successive month, with growth accelerating to the fastest in a year. Purchasing activity dropped for the second straight month, due to a fall in new orders. On the price front, input costs inflation eased, due to a weaker exchange rate. As a result, selling prices increased slightly. Finally, sentiment strengthened, as firms often cited plans to expand their operations. source: Markit Economics
Composite PMI in Mozambique is expected to be 49.60 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite PMI in Mozambique to stand at 51.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mozambique Standard Bank PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 points in 2021 and 53.00 points in 2022, according to our econometric models.
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Mozambique Standard Bank PMI
The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI™ is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 private sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services. Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted. The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.