Morocco Interest Rate1995-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar | Historical

The National Bank of Morocco left its monetary policy rate steady at 1.5% at its September 2020 meeting, amid a deteriorating economic outlook and low inflationary pressures. Policymakers also considered that the economy financing conditions remain adequate after enacting a host of mitigating measures to cushion the impact of the global pandemic. The bank noted that consumer prices rebounded by 0.9% in August driven by volatile food prices; but inflation is expected to remain low, averaging 0.4% in 2020 (vs 1% estimated in June) before speeding up moderately to 1% in 2021. The economy is now projected to contract 6.3% in 2020 (vs -5.2% estimated in June), owing to a slower-than-expected recovery of activity amid the implementation of restrictions following the resurgence of infections and the continued closure of borders. In 2021, the GDP would rebound by 4.7%, assuming improvements in both agricultural and non-agricultural activities.

The National Bank of Morocco trimmed its monetary policy rate by 50 bps to 1.5% during its June 2020 meeting, saying the decision aims to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and support economic recovery amid a lack of inflationary pressure. Policymakers noted that the headline inflation fell further to 0.9% in April, mainly due to the lower prices of fuels and lubricants; and it is expected to remain at a moderate level of around 1% in both 2020 and 2021. The economy is seen contracting 5.2% in 2020, the most since 1996, due to the combined effect of drought and the restrictions adopted to limit the spread of Covid-19. Growth is expected to rebound to 4.2% in 2021, assuming improvements in both agricultural and non-agricultural activities. In the face of high uncertainty posed by the pandemic, the Committee said it will closely monitor the economic situation both at the domestic and international levels and take necessary actions if needed.

The National Bank of Morocco slashed its monetary policy rate by 25 bps to 2% during its March 2020 meeting, saying the decision aims to support the economy amid the impact of drought and the coronavirus outbreak. Policymakers noted that inflation, which stood at a low level of 0.2% in 2019, rose to 1.3% in January, mainly due to volatile food prices; and it is expected to average 0.7% in 2020 and to quicken to 1.2% in 2021. Meantime, core inflation is seen rising from 0.6% in 2019 to 1% in 2020 and then to 1.3% in 2021. Regarding growth, the economy is projected to have slowed to 2.3% in 2019 (previously seen at 2.6%), as a result of an expected 5.3% plunge in agriculture; and the GDP growth should stagnate at 2.3% in 2020 (previously seen at 3.8%), amid the combined effect of unfavourable climate conditions on agriculture and uncertainty caused the global spread of the Covid-19 disease.

The National Bank of Morocco left its monetary policy rate steady at 2.25% at its December 17th 2019 meeting, even after King Mohammed VI urged banks to raise lending. Policymakers noted that inflation, which stood at 1.9% in 2018, decelerated sharply in the first ten months of 2019, mainly due to food prices; and it is expected to end 2019 averaging 0.3%, before picking up to 1.1% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. Meantime, core inflation is estimated to increase to 0.6% this year, and then advance to 1.3% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021. Regarding growth, the economy is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2019 (previously seen at 2.7%) from 3% in 2018, with agriculture shrinking 4% (vs 4% in 2018) due to a lack of rainfall while non-agricultural activity rising 3.3% (vs 2.6% in 2018); but it should accelerate to 3.8% in 2020 and 3.7% in 2021, assuming improvements in cereals production and non-agricultural output.