Montenegro - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Montenegro including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Montenegro economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.42 19 18.6 18.4 18.2 16.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.40 3 2.5 3.9 4 2.7 percent
Balance of Trade -209891.00 -163500 -194400 -169000 -187700 -193700 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 62.50 66.7 66.7 68.7 68.7 70.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 10208.21
points
11800 11600 11600 11600 10400
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.50
percent
2 2 2.6 2.6 1.9
GDP 4.77
USD Billion
5.7 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.9
GDP Constant Prices 812.59
EUR Million
1366 1070 834 993 1121
GDP per capita 7812.95
USD
8100 8100 8250 8250 8450
GDP per capita PPP 16409.29
USD
16550 16550 16850 16850 17200
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 263332.00
EUR Thousand
257711 334604 270179 286886 350508
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.42
percent
19 18.6 18.4 18.2 16.5
Employed Persons 189341.00
188496 187227 187123 187210 187230
Wages 768.00
EUR/Month
776 780 782 767 800
Minimum Wages 288.05
EUR/Month
288 288 288 288 288
Population 0.62
Million
0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.63
Long Term Unemployment Rate 12.30
percent
11.2 12.35 11.77 11.08 11.71
Wages In Manufacturing 603.00
EUR/Month
653 657 660 615 690
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40
percent
3 2.5 3.9 4 2.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.14 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.80
Index Points
107 105 108 109 111
Producer Prices 165.20
Index Points
165 166 169 169 173
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.50
Index Points
108 106 109 111 112
Producer Prices Change 1.50
percent
2 2.1 2.17 2.55 2.4
Food Inflation -0.20
percent
2.98 3 2.5 2.2 3.46
Export Prices 140.90
Index Points
142 142 142 142 142
Cpi Housing Utilities 101.20
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Cpi Transportation 109.80
Index Points
110 109 109 110 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Loans to Private Sector 1023318.00
EUR Thousand
1087317 1126177 1158071 1184240 1287319
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -209891.00
EUR Thousand
-163500 -194400 -169000 -187700 -193700
Exports 30295.00
EUR Thousand
32200 37800 34700 30200 42500
Imports 240186.00
EUR Thousand
195700 232200 203700 217900 236200
Current Account -304467.52
EUR Thousand
-305282 -567140 -306092 -566333 -562372
Current Account to GDP -19.10
percent
-9.8 -9.8 -8.7 -8.7 -7.5
Capital Flows -182314.33
EUR Thousand
-257861 -380546 -275577 -256308 -315776
Tourist Arrivals 109886.00
136200 34600 34800 86900 44500
Terrorism Index 0.08
0.19 0.17 0.33 0.5 0.19
Foreign Direct Investment 659232.90
EUR Thousand
856810 882808 859076 835344 909901
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 62.50
percent
66.7 66.7 68.7 68.7 70.2
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-5.4 -5.4 0.39 0.28 -3.2
Government Budget Value -70097186.53
EUR
-127235905 -135820639 -134793782 -135108263 -135062719
Government Spending 163619.00
EUR Thousand
188917 254137 167873 195045 266217
Government Revenues 327432236.86
EUR
902478308 910978819 910006226 910117506 910106081
Government Debt 2665.27
EUR Million
2663 2727 2719 2705 2760
Fiscal Expenditure 397529423.39
EUR
1029714213 1047556168 1044800008 1045225769 1045168800
Military Expenditure 71.70
USD Million
68.43 70.86 70.94 71.02 71.11
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 6.50
percent
3.8 2 2.5 2.8 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -17.00
percent
-0.9 0.47 1.09 1.05 1.04
Manufacturing Production -16.10
percent
-2.27 -1.78 -1.25 -1.61 -1.5
Changes in Inventories 57767.00
EUR Thousand
-40876 78900 52480 70525 71984
Internet Speed 6689.26
KBps
6676 6676 6676 6676 6676
IP Addresses 73349.00
IP
71495 71712 74031 72755 72858
Mining Production -26.10
percent
3.03 11.16 15.27 17.34 19.44
Competitiveness Index 4.15
Points
4.06 4.06 4.11 4.13 4.12
Competitiveness Rank 77.00
79 79 76 75 73
Ease of Doing Business 42.00
42 38 38 38 34
Corruption Index 46.00
Points
46 47 47 47 47
Corruption Rank 64.00
62 63 64 65 68
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales Yoy 4.20
percent
3.88 2.7 3.74 3.74 2
Consumer Spending 699124.00
EUR Thousand
816385 868010 717301 810401 909268
Retail Sales Mom 5.60
percent
1.72 7 1.52 1.52 6
Gasoline Prices 1.64
USD/Liter
1.55 1.47 1.39 1.31 0.76
Consumer Credit 1175959.00
EUR Thousand
1217827 1245198 1269540 1291196 1411536
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 1079.00
EUR/SQ. METRE
1006 1034 1053 1058 1054
Construction Output 46.80
percent
50.9 49.52 56.37 48.63 52.71
Building Permits 275.00
259 269 255 262 262
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Personal Income Tax Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 20.5 21 21
Social Security Rate 34.30
percent
34.3 34.3 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.30
percent
10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Social Security Rate For Employees 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 1.16
mm
76.13 120 89.73 96.86 97.14
Temperature 1.80
celsius
19.13 5.79 1.86 16.82 10.46