Moldova - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Moldova including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Moldova economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.10 3.2 4.2 3.8 3.1 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.20 2.8 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6 5.5 5.25 5.25 4.25 percent
Balance of Trade -282.40 -212 -210 -210 -213 -197 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 34.40 38.7 38.7 39.4 39.4 40.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 16.64
 16.94 17.15 17.35 17.57 18.43
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.80
percent		 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.70
percent		 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.8 2.6
GDP 8.13
USD Billion		 8.5 8.5 9.3 9.3 11
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7687492.00
MDL Thousand 		9875334 9432334 7933492 7732619 9958225
GDP per capita 2165.16
USD		 2230 2230 2370 2370 2450
GDP per capita PPP 5189.97
USD		 5190 5190 5220 5220 5300
GDP Constant Prices 141043266.10
MDL Thousand		 130860980 146261867 145556651 132913729 154416551
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent		 3.2 4.2 3.8 3.1 4.5
Unemployed Persons 48.30
Thousand		 38.23 37.71 43.46 37.19 38.38
Labor Force Participation Rate 39.30
percent		 43.26 40.13 39.35 42.67 40.12
Wages 5906.50
MDL/Month		 6100 6500 5800 6038 7000
Wages in Manufacturing 5438.10
MDL/Month		 5500 6000 5250 5566 6300
Population 3.55
Million		 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.52
Retirement Age Women 58.00
 58 58 58.5 58 59
Retirement Age Men 63.00
 63 63 63.5 63 64
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40
percent		 10.91 10.67 9.97 10.31 10.23
Employed Persons 1124.60
Thousand		 1256 1166 1136 1247 1169
Employment Rate 37.70
percent		 42.12 39.08 38.06 41.79 39.19
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20
percent		 2.8 3.2 3 2.8 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 2418.66
Index Points		 2400 2476 2479 2486 2602
Core Inflation Rate 3.70
percent		 3.52 3.46 3.41 3.39 3.37
Producer Prices 129.30
Index Points		 131 133 130 134 139
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Producer Prices Change 0.20
percent		 2.5 2.4 -0.04 3.43 2
Food Inflation 5.10
percent		 6.25 6.91 7.28 7.45 7.54
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent		 6 5.5 5.25 5.25 4.25
Money Supply M0 18296.50
MDL Million		 18310 18460 18309 18459 18456
Money Supply M3 77427.71
MDL Million		 77581 77634 77684 77724 77774
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent		 3 2.5 5.63 5.13 1.5
Money Supply M1 33554.16
MDL Million		 33445 33426 33422 33421 33420
Money Supply M2 53523.89
MDL Million		 54067 54309 54450 54536 54668
Lending Rate 9.50
percent		 9 8.5 11.63 11.13 7.5
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2834196.38
USD Thousand		 2814480 2808262 2808987 2806685 2807014
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -282.40
USD Million		 -212 -210 -210 -213 -197
Exports 223.00
USD Million		 236 275 255 198 308
Imports 505.40
USD Million		 448 485 465 411 505
Current Account -86.21
USD Million		 -125 -120 -121 -121 -118
Current Account to GDP -4.10
percent		 -6 -6 -5.7 -5.7 -5.2
Capital Flows 110.33
USD Million		 88.23 87.99 86.67 86.59 86.43
Terrorism Index 0.47
 0.56 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.91
Tourist Arrivals 27128.00
 33300 33300 33300 33300 33300
Remittances 211.78
USD Million		 219 214 202 214 213
Foreign Direct Investment 64.09
USD Million		 49.88 50.3 49.28 48.36 44.44
External Debt 7204.68
USD Million		 7607 7785 7942 8079 8613
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 34.40
percent		 38.7 38.7 39.4 39.4 40.2
Government Budget -1.80
percent of GDP		 -1.2 -1.2 -1.67 -1.66 -0.7
Government Revenues 45946.90
MDL Million		 48150 48722 49416 50109 59822
Military Expenditure 28.40
USD Million		 28.87 28.67 28.13 27.58 26.11
Government Spending 48462.60
MDL Million		 49529 50256 50013 50304 53058
Government Budget Value -1144.80
MDL Million		 -2487 -2487 -2487 -2487 -2487
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 10.00
percent		 5.8 4.21 3.26 2.69 1.84
Industrial Production Mom 13.30
percent		 2.35 1.79 1.1 1.1 1.12
Manufacturing Production 8.10
percent		 5.46 4.43 3.62 3.16 2.4
Mining Production 19.20
percent		 7.21 7.56 7.7 7.76 7.79
Steel Production 60.00
Thousand Tonnes		 46.47 42.67 40.81 39.9 39.06
Corruption Index 31.00
Points		 32 32 32 32 32
Corruption Rank 122.00
 112 111 112 112 115
Ease of Doing Business 44.00
 46 48 47 46 47
Changes In Inventories -629973.90
MDL Thousand		 1089012 4073 -18999 -217228 118528
Competitiveness Index 3.99
Points		 3.92 3.92 3.9 3.89 4.02
Competitiveness Rank 89.00
 90 90 81 78 90
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM 4.40
percent		 1.06 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.95
Retail Sales YoY 4.70
percent		 5.61 5.23 4.87 4.59 3.66
Consumer Spending 34199632.00
MDL Thousand		 39336649 35729380 35294020 31541441 37721436
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Personal Income Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 29.00
percent		 29 29 29 29 29
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.00
percent		 23.02 23.02 22.99 22.97 22.97
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00
percent		 5.99 5.99 6 6 6
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 2.44
celsius		 19.12 3.73 -1.54 14.8 9.17
Precipitation 3.13
mm		 50.9 35.64 30.62 43.1 43.43