The unemployment rate in Mexico rose to 3.6 percent in January of 2019 from 3.4 percent in the same month of the previous year, slightly below market expectations of 3.7 percent. The jobless rate increased for women (3.8% vs 3.3% in January 2018) while it remained steady for men (at 3.4%). In January, about 17.1 percent of unemployed did not have a full secondary education while 82.9 percent had a higher education. Meantime, the activity rate rose only marginally to 59.2 percent from 59.0 percent in January 2018. When adjusted for seasonality, the jobless rate dropped to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent in the prior month and below market consensus of 3.6 percent. Unemployment Rate in Mexico averaged 3.76 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.42 percent in September of 2009 and a record low of 2.22 percent in March of 1997.
Unemployment Rate in Mexico is expected to be 3.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in Mexico to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.