Mexico's economic activity shrank 2.3% year-on-year in March of 2020, following a 0.6% fall in February and compared with market expectations of a 3.5% decline. It was the third consecutive contraction in economic activity and the steepest since October of 2009, reflecting the earliest signs of disruptions caused by the global pandemic. Output fell for secondary activities (-5% vs -2% in February), primarily manufacturing (.6.1% vs -1.2%) and construction (-7.5% vs -9%). The services sector also shrank (-1.4% vs 0.4%), in particular food & accommodation services (-26.4% vs 2.3%); recreation activities (-8.7% vs -1%); transportation & storage (-2.6% vs 1.3%); wholesale trade (-2.3% vs -5.7%) and retail trade (-0.9% vs 2.1%). In contrast, primary activities rebounded sharply (9.3% vs -6.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.3%, after an upwardly revised 0.6% decrease in February and compared with market consensus of a 2.3% contraction.

Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.31 percent from 1994 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -11 percent in April of 2009. This page provides the latest reported value for - Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2020. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica, Mexico

Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be -5.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2021 and 2.00 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-2.30 -0.60 12.60 -11.00 1994 - 2020 percent Monthly
2013=100, NSA


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-02-25 12:00 PM Dec 0.7% -1.2% 0.5% 0.6%
2020-03-26 12:00 PM Jan -0.8% 0.7% -0.2% -0.3%
2020-04-24 11:00 AM Feb -0.6% -0.8% -1% -1.5%
2020-05-26 11:00 AM Mar -2.3% -0.6% -3.5% -11%
2020-06-26 11:00 AM Apr -2.3% -9%
2020-07-27 11:00 AM May
2020-08-24 11:00 AM Jun -5%
2020-09-25 11:00 AM Jul


News Stream
Mexico Economic Activity Falls the Most since 2009
Mexico's economic activity shrank 2.3% year-on-year in March of 2020, following a 0.6% fall in February and compared with market expectations of a 3.5% decline. It was the third consecutive contraction in economic activity and the steepest since October of 2009, reflecting the earliest signs of disruptions caused by the global pandemic. Output fell for secondary activities (-5% vs -2% in February), primarily manufacturing (.6.1% vs -1.2%) and construction (-7.5% vs -9%). The services sector also shrank (-1.4% vs 0.4%), in particular food & accommodation services (-26.4% vs 2.3%); recreation activities (-8.7% vs -1%); transportation & storage (-2.6% vs 1.3%); wholesale trade (-2.3% vs -5.7%) and retail trade (-0.9% vs 2.1%). In contrast, primary activities rebounded sharply (9.3% vs -6.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.3%, after an upwardly revised 0.6% decrease in February and compared with market consensus of a 2.3% contraction.
2020-05-26
Mexico Economic Activity Shrinks for 2nd Month
Mexico's economic activity shrank 0.6 percent year-on-year in February 2020, following a 0.8 percent contraction in January and compared with market expectations of a 1 percent decline. It was the second consecutive contraction in economic activity, as secondary activities continued to shrink (-1.9 percent vs -1.6 percent in January), namely manufacturing (-1 percent vs -0.9 percent) and construction (-9.1 percent vs -8.6 percent). Also, the primary sector contracted 8.4 percent, after expanding 1.6 percent in the prior month. Meanwhile, the services sector grew 0.4 percent, recovering from a 0.5 percent decline, driven by retail trade (1.9 percent vs 1.2 percent); transportation, storage & information (1.5 percent vs -0.3 percent); financial services & insurance and real estate (0.4 percent vs -0.3 percent); and hotels & restaurants (2.3 percent vs 2.2 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell 0.2 percent, after stalling in January.
2020-04-24
Mexico Economic Activity Shrinks More than Expected
Mexico's economic activity shrank 0.8 percent year-on-year in January 2020, after increasing 0.7 percent in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 0.2 percent decline. The services sector contracted 0.5 percent (vs 1.5 percent in December), mainly due to wholesale trade (-5.3 percent vs -4 percent), transportation, storage and information (-0.3 percent vs 2.2 percent), financial services & insurance and real estate (-0.3 percent vs 0.2 percent), and education (-1.7 percent vs 0.2 percent). Also, secondary activities shrank further (-1.6 percent vs -1 percent), in particular manufacturing (-0.9 percent vs -0.5 percent), construction (-8.6 percent vs -4.5 percent) and utilities (0.4 percent vs 6.5 percent). Meanwhile, the primary sector grew 1.1 percent, faster than a 0.7 percent expansion in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity stalled, after expanding a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in January.
2020-03-26
Mexico Economic Activity Grows the Most in 9 Months
Mexico's economic activity increased 0.7 percent year-on-year in December of 2019, recovering from a 1.2 percent decline in the previous month and beating market estimates of a 0.5 percent advance. It was the strongest rise in economic activity since last March, boosted by services (1.5 percent vs -0.7 percent in November), mostly retail trade (6.1 percent vs 0.2 percent) and primary activities (0.4 percent vs -2 percent). Meantime, secondary activities shrank at a softer pace (-1 percent vs -2.3 percent), as manufacturing output fell much less (-0.5 percent vs -3.2 percent) and the utilities sector posted the largest gain in over a year (6.5 percent vs 3.3 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity went up 0.2 percent, marginally above a 0.1 percent increase in November and in line with market consensus. Considering the full year of 2019, economic activity dropped 0.2 percent, for the first time since 2009, compared to a 2.1 percent rise in 2018.
2020-02-25

Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity
In Mexico, the Leading Index provides early signal on the direction in which the economy is going. It aggregates the following indicators: employment trend in manufacturing sector, non-oil exports, Mexican stock exchange index in real terms, real exchange rate, the interbank interest rate, Standard & Poor's 500. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2008.