The economic activity in Mexico increased 1.8 percent year-on-year in November 2018, easing from a 2.9 percent rise in the previous month, and above market expectations of a 1.2 percent gain. It was the weakest expansion since August, as output growth slowed in the services sector (3 percent from 4.1 percent in October), namely wholesale trade (-0.7 percent from 5.7 percent); public administration (-0.5 percent from 2.7 percent) and educational services (1.2 percent from 1.3 percent). Also, the industry sector contracted 1.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent expansion in the prior month, mainly due to mining (-8 percent from -5.6 percent); construction (-3.3 percent from 1.4 percent); manufacturing (1.4 percent from 2.6 percent) and utilities (0.8 percent from 4.6 percent). Meanwhile, the agricultural sector rebounded (5.1 percent from -3 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Mexican economy advanced 0.4 percent, after shrinking 0.3 percent in the prior month. Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.65 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -9.80 percent in October of 1995.
Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be 2.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.