Economic activity in Mexico shrank 0.8 percent year-on-year in October of 2019, reversing from a 0.1 percent gain in September. It is the fourth month of declining activity so far in 2019. The manufacturing sector came back to contraction (-1.2 percent vs 0.8 percent in September); and mining continued to fall (-2.1 percent vs -3 percent) as well as construction (-9.3 percent vs -8.3 percent). Also, the primary sector slowed (8.4 percent vs 9.5 percent) and retail trade eased (3.1 percent vs 3.2 percent). On a monthly basis, economic activity declined 0.5 percent. Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.37 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -11 percent in April of 2009. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica, Mexico

Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 1.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.80 0.10 12.60 -11.00 1994 - 2019 percent Monthly
2013=100, NSA



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-26 11:00 AM Jul 0.3% -0.9% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-10-24 11:00 AM Aug -0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
2019-11-25 12:00 PM Sep 0.1% -1% -0.6% 0.1%
2019-12-24 12:00 PM Oct -0.8% 0.1% 0.4%
2020-01-24 12:00 PM Nov -0.8% -0.7% 0.3%


News Stream
2019-11-25
Mexico Economic Activity Rebounds in September
Mexico's economic activity increased 0.1 percent year-on-year in September of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1 percent fall in August. The third sector rebounded (0.6 percent compared to -1.1 percent in August) and the primary sector grew at a faster 9.4 percent (3 percent in August). On the other hand, secondary activities shrank further (-1.8 percent compared to -1.3 percent). On a monthly basis, economic activity increased 0.3 percent. Considering Q3, the GDP contracted 0.3 percent over a year earlier and stalled when compared with the previous quarter.

2019-10-24
Mexico Economic Activity Unexpectedly Contracts
Mexico's economic activity shrank 0.9 percent from a year earlier in August 2019, after expanding 0.3 percent in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent growth. The tertiary sector contracted 0.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent expansion in July; and the primary activities growth slowed to 0.2 percent from 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, secondary activities shrank 1.3 percent, less than a 1.8 percent contraction in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity advanced 0.1 percent, rebounding from a 0.2 percent contraction in July.

2019-09-26
Mexico Economic Activity Expands More than Expected
Mexico's economic activity expanded 0.3 percent from a year earlier in July 2019, rebounding from a 0.9 percent contraction in the previous month and beating market consensus of a 0.2 percent growth. Primary activities advanced 4.1 percent, faster than a 2.5 percent rise in June and the tertiary sector grew 1.2 percent, after shrinking 0.2 percent. Additionally, secondary output contracted 1.7 percent, less than a 2.9 percent decline in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity shrank 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent expansion in June.

2019-08-23
Mexico Economic Activity Falls More than Expected
Mexico's economic activity shrank 0.9 percent from a year earlier in June 2019, following a 0.4 percent contraction in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 0.6 percent fall. It is the third straight month of decline in economic activity, as secondary output slumped 2.9 percent (vs -3.3 percent in May) and tertiary activities posted a 0.1 percent drop (vs 1 percent growth). In contrast, primary activities expanded 2.5 percent, faster than 0.5 percent in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity went up 0.2 percent, after stalling in the preceding month.

2019-07-26
Mexico Economic Activity Falls Less than Expected
Mexico's economic activity shrank 0.4 percent from a year earlier in May 2019, following a revised 1.5 percent contraction in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 0.9 percent fall. Secondary activities output plunged 3.3 percent, the seventh consecutive month of decline, while primary activities growth slowed to 0.5 percent from 1.3 percent. On the other hand, tertiary activities output climbed 0.9 percent, reversing a 0.9 percent drop in April. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity was unchanged, after a 0.1 percent advance in April.

2019-06-24
Mexico Economic Activity Contracts the Most since 2013
The economic activity in Mexico shrank 1.4 percent year-on-year in April 2019, following a 1.3 percent growth in the previous month. It is the steepest contraction since March 2013, as the services sector shrank 0.8 percent, after expanding 1.8 percent in March, namely transportation & storage (-0.7% vs 0.3%), wholesale trade (-3.8% vs -0.4%), professionals, scientists & technical services; corporate business support services and waste, waste management & remediation services (-3% from 9.3%) and educational services; health & social assistance services (-1.3% vs 2.2%). In addition, the secondary sector declined further (-2.9% from -0.1%), mostly due to manufacturing (-0.4% vs 2.8%), mining (-9% vs -6%) and construction (-0.4% vs 2.8%). Also, output growth slowed in the agricultural sector (1.3% from 5.4%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the economy advanced 0.1 percent, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.5 percent contraction in March.


Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity
In Mexico, the Leading Index provides early signal on the direction in which the economy is going. It aggregates the following indicators: employment trend in manufacturing sector, non-oil exports, Mexican stock exchange index in real terms, real exchange rate, the interbank interest rate, Standard & Poor's 500. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2008.

Mexico Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 49.50 49.90 58.60 34.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.10 48.00 57.10 47.10 points [+]
Industrial Production -2.10 -3.00 23.80 -17.50 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 -1.50 8.50 -8.00 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.00 -1.30 18.30 -17.70 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.70 81.10 82.60 74.10 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 128308.00 125471.00 280410.00 49273.00 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 70607.00 62538.00 127604.00 6318.00 [+]
Car Production 207.62 299.97 381.99 35.61 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 70607.00 62538.00 127604.00 6318.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.80 0.10 12.60 -11.00 percent [+]
Internet Speed 7538.43 7213.58 7538.43 949.27 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 13309655.00 13057425.00 14700484.00 4009120.00 IP [+]
Steel Production 1420.00 1515.00 1850.00 466.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment -8.60 -6.80 33.10 -41.90 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.90 -2.30 45.30 -25.20 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 64.95 64.60 64.95 4.18 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 48.00 46.00 66.00 44.00 [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 49.00 50.00 107.00 8.00 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29.00 37.00 26.60 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 138.00 135.00 138.00 32.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 60.00 54.00 60.00 42.00 [+]
Gold Production 6990.00 6383.00 11688.00 384.00 Kg [+]