Industrial production in Mexico declined 2.5 percent year-on-year in December 2018, following a 1.3 percent fall in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. It is the biggest decline in industrial output since March, as production of utilities dropped (-1.1 percent from 0.8 percent in November), mainly due to electricity generation (-2.1 percent). Also, output decreased further for mining & quarrying (-8.2 percent from -8.0 percent), namely extraction of oil and gas (-8.4 percent); and construction (-3.9 percent from -3.3 percent), of which civil engineering works (-10.9 percent). Additionally, output growth slowed for manufacturing (0.5 percent from 1.4 percent). Considering 2018 as a whole, industrial production increased 0.2 percent over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output went down 0.4 percent, after declining 0.6 percent in November. Industrial Production in Mexico averaged 1.76 percent from 1980 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.82 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -17.50 percent in October of 1995.
Industrial Production in Mexico is expected to be -2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Mexico to stand at 1.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Industrial Production is projected to trend around 1.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.