Retail sales in Macau dropped 0.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent fall in the previous quarter. It was the third straight quarter decrease in retail sales, and the steepest fall since the third quarter 2016, as sales declined more for: motor vehicles (-17.1 pct vs -3.4 pct in Q2); adult's clothing (-14.8 pct vs -11.3 pct); automotive fuels (-4.2 pct vs -3.9 pct), and watches, clothes & jewelry (-9.1 pct vs -4.9 pct), while sales of goods in pharmacies went down (-1.5 pct vs 3.0 pct). In addition, sales rose softer for goods in supermarkets (1.2 pct vs 2.8 percent). On the other hand, sales increased faster for: communication (23.5 pct vs 18.1 pct); cosmetics & sanitary articles (18.3 pct vs 6.9 pct); goods in department stores (12.1 pct vs 6.5 pct), and leather goods (8.3 pct vs 5.0 pct). Retail Sales YoY in Macau averaged 15.85 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 49.95 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and a record low of -8.50 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Retail Sales YoY in Macau is expected to be 2.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Macau to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.