Macau GDP shrank 4.5 percent year-on-year in the three months to September of 2019, following a revised 1.8 percent slump in the previous period. It was the third consecutive quarter of contraction, as both household (2.8 percent vs 3.2 percent in Q2) and government spending (4.3 percent vs 6.5 percent) slowed. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation dropped at a much softer pace (-8.5 percent vs -26.1 percent). Regarding net trade, totals exports declined 4.5 percent, with services down 4.7 percent (from -0.1 percent in Q2) while exports of goods increased 0.5 percent (from -24.3 percent in Q2). Meantime, total imports went up 1.8 percent. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau averaged 8.41 percent from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 54.30 percent in the second quarter of 2004 and a record low of -24.60 percent in the second quarter of 2015.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Macau to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Macau GDP Annual Growth Rate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-4.50 -1.80 54.30 -24.60 2002 - 2019 percent Quarterly

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-02-28 10:25 AM Q4 2.1% 1.9% 2.5%
2019-06-03 07:20 AM Q1 -3.2% 2.1% 2.3%
2019-08-24 03:00 AM Q2 -1.8% -3.2% 2.5%
2019-11-15 10:00 AM Q3 -4.5% -2.2% -0.6%
2020-02-28 04:00 AM Q4 -4.5% -3.2%

News Stream
Macau Economy Enters in Recession
Macau's GDP shrank 1.8 percent year-on-year in Q2 2019, after a 3.2 percent contraction in the prior period. It was the second straight quarterly decline, as fixed investment continued to slid (-25% vs -31.7% in Q1), owing to a 30.1% fall in construction investment. Public investment in construction plunged 51.6%, as a result of the relatively high comparison basis due to the huge investment launched by the government in the same period last year in the completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge Artificial Border Island. Also, private investment slid by 19.3% on lower investment in large-scale construction projects and a drop in number of new residential projects. Meantime, total exports fell (-0.3% vs -0.4%), dragged down by goods (-24.4%) and gaming services (-0.8%). Total imports also slumped (-4.6% vs -5.0%), namely goods (-0.8) and services (-13.7%). In contrast, private consumption (2.2% vs 2.1%) and government spending (5.7% vs 4.1%) advanced faster.

Macau Economy Shrinks for 1st Time in Nearly 3 Years
The economy of Macau shrank 3.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a 2.1 percent expansion in the previous quarter. That was the first economic contraction since the second quarter of 2016, mainly due to a decline in exports of services (-0.3 percent vs 5.2 percent in Q4), in particular gaming services (-0.6 percent) and other tourism services (-0.3 percent), as well as a steep fall in fixed investment (-31.7 percent vs -14.3 percent) due to a 37.5 percent drop in construction investment. In addition, the completion of the Macau boundary crossing area of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge led to a 82.3 percent plunge in public construction investment. On the other hand, private consumption growth slowed (2.1 percent vs 2.8 percent) while government spending continued to increase at a solid pace (4.1 percent vs 3.4 percent).

Macau GDP Grows 2.1% YoY in Q4
The economy of Macau advanced 2.1% yoy in Q4 2018, higher than an upwardly revised 1.9% expansion in Q3 which was the weakest since a contraction in 2016. Service trade remained the major driving force of economic growth. Exports of services rose 5.2% (6.2% in Q3) while shipments of goods rebounded (10.2% vs -8.1% in Q3). Also, imports of services shrank 1.7% (+1.7% in Q3) and those of goods went up 2.3% (0.9% in Q3). On the other hand, slowdown was observed for private consumption (2.8% vs 4.2%), government spending (3.4% vs 5.7%) and inventories (12.1% vs 16.1%). Also, investment continued to fall (-14.3% vs -21.4%) as private investment shrank 20.4%, due to notable drop in large-scale construction projects while public investment went up 4%. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 4.7%, below 9.7% in 2017.

Macau GDP Annual Growth Rate
Macau, a former Portuguese colony, has become a special administrative region of China since 1999. After opening of its borders to Chinese citizens and liberalization of the gaming industry in 2001, it has become the world’s largest casino market. As a result, gaming accounts for 50 percent of GDP, 84 percent of fiscal revenues and around 21 percent of the workforce. Given Macau’s semi-autonomous status inside China, large gaming industry and relaxed tax laws, it has become a base for wealthy investors especially from Mainland China. Attempts to diversify the economy while limiting casino growth have been fairly unsuccessful.

Macau GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Annual Growth Rate -4.50 -1.80 54.30 -24.60 percent [+]
GDP 54.55 50.56 55.35 1.12 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 99656.00 102100.00 134453.00 26210.00 MOP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14500.00 13372.00 26674.00 1108.00 MOP THO [+]
GDP per capita 58054.10 56249.70 71992.00 16452.90 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 108831.30 105448.70 134960.10 40380.40 USD [+]
Gross National Product 366753.70 332584.20 388120.70 95974.40 MOP Million [+]