Retail sales in Lithuania increased 2.9 percent year-on-year in May of 2019, slowing from an upwardly revised 14.3 percent gain in the previous month. This was the smallest gain in retail sales since February of 2018, as sales growth eased for both non-food products (7.8 pct from 13.3 pct in April) and automotive fuel (1.2 pct from 8.6 pct) while those of food products fell (-0.6 percent from 18.6 percent), namely in specialised stores (-7.6 pct from 0.5 pct). Within non-food products, sales rose softer via mail order houses or via internet (20.0 pct from 37.9 pct); dispensing chemist, medical & orthopaedic goods (17.1 percent from 21.2 percent); audio, video, hardware, furniture & lighting (5.4 pct from 10.5 pct); textiles clothing & footwear (3.9 pct from 5.2 pct), and information & communication equipment (3.0 percent from 8.7 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade decreased 0.3 percent, down from an upwardly revised 6.8 percent jump in April. Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania averaged 4.98 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania is expected to be 5.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania to stand at 4.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Lithuania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.