Retail sales in Lithuania rose 5.9 percent year-on-year in January of 2019, accelerating from an upwardly 4.5 percent gain in the previous month. Sales growth accelerated for food products (4.0 percent from 2.6 percent in December); non-food products (5.1 percent from 5.0 percent), and automotive fuel (4.6 percent from 3.8 percent). Within non-food products, sales increased faster for dispensing chemist, medical & orthopedic goods (16.6 percent from 7.9 percent). Meanwhile, sales went up at a softer pace for audio, video, hardware, furniture & lighting (2.1 percent from 7.4 percent); via mail order houses or via internet (12.9 percent from 13.8 percent), and textiles clothing & footwear (1.0 percent from 10.3 percent). In addition, sales of information & communication equipment fell less (-2.2 percent from -11.3 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade tumbled 19 percent, after a 15.6 percent jump in December. Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania averaged 4.95 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania to stand at 4.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Lithuania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.