Retail sales in Lithuania rose 3.5 percent year-on-year in March of 2019, easing from an 8.5 percent gain in the previous month. This was the smallest gain in retail sales since February of 2018, as sales growth slowed for both non-food products (9.0 pct from 13.1 pct in February) and automotive fuel (7.5 pct from 10.2 pct) while those of food products fell (-3.3 pct from 3.4). Within non-food products, sales increased softer for: via mail order houses or via internet (12.7 pct from 25.9 pct); dispensing chemist, medical & orthopedic goods (3.6 percent from 12.9 percent). Meanwhile, sales went up at a faster pace for: audio, video, hardware, furniture & lighting (13.2 pct from 12.1 pct); textiles clothing & footwear (15.3 pct from 14.9 pct), and information & communication equipment (9.1 percent from 9.0 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade jumped 13.3 percent, rebounding from a 5.6 percent drop in February. Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania averaged 4.96 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Lithuania to stand at 4.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Lithuania Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.