Retail sales in Latvia increased 1.7 percent year-on-year in November 2019, accelerating from a revised 0.1 percent gain in the previous month. Sales rose faster for both food (2.0 percent vs 0.6 percent in October) and non-food products (2.9 percent vs 1.3 percent) while fuel sales fell at a softer pace (-0.6 percent vs -3.1 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade surged 2.6 percent, after a 0.3 percent increase in October. Retail Sales YoY in Latvia averaged 5.63 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 60.60 percent in January of 1999 and a record low of -28.50 percent in December of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Latvia is expected to be 2.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Latvia to stand at 3.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Latvia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.