Retail sales in Latvia increased 1.2 percent year-on-year in May 2019, following a downwardly revised 6.3 percent gain in the prior month. It was the slowest rise in retail trade since January, as sales fell for food products (-0.5 percent vs 6.6 percent in April) and automotive fuel (-2.8 percent vs 4.8 percent) while those went up at a softer pace for non-food products (2.1 percent vs 6.2 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade dropped 1.1 percent, after a 0.8 percent increase in April. Retail Sales YoY in Latvia averaged 5.74 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 60.60 percent in January of 1999 and a record low of -28.50 percent in December of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Latvia is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Latvia to stand at 3.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Latvia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.