The Latvian economy shrank 0.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, below an earlier estimate of a 0.3 percent contraction and after a downwardly revised 0.9 percent growth in the previous period, final figures showed. It was the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2015, as construction output contracted (-0.7 percent vs 5.6%) and growth slowed in agriculture, forestry, fishing (1.4% vs 4.5%); manufacturing (a flat reading vs 2.4% in Q4); information & communication (1.2% vs 3.2); arts, entertainment and recreation (1.6% vs 1.7%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (0.8% vs 1%). Meanwhile, output fell less in mining & utilities (-4.2% vs -4.8%); finance & insurance (-6.4% vs -9.9%); real estate activities (-1.2% vs -4.7%). Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 3 percent, the weakest growth since the third quarter of 2018, easing from a 5.1 percent expansion in the prior quarter but higher than a flash estimate of 2.8 percent. GDP Growth Rate in Latvia averaged 0.98 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996 and a record low of -6.10 percent in the second quarter of 2009.
GDP Growth Rate in Latvia is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Latvia to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Latvia GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.