Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.20 8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -230.50 -330 -210 -190 -310 -210 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.16
 1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 1029.82
points		 995 952 911 872 732
Government Bond 10y 0.55
percent		 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent		 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent		 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.3 2.8
GDP 30.26
USD Billion		 40 40 44 44 48
GDP Constant Prices 5222004.00
EUR Thousand		 6071723 6344587 5383886 5879470 6711380
Gross National Product 6537.00
EUR Million		 7175 7408 6740 6944 7837
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1103106.00
EUR Thousand		 1582853 1668775 1137302 1320233 1765250
GDP per capita 15553.33
USD		 15961 15961 16200 16200 16902
GDP per capita PPP 25063.85
USD		 25617 25617 26141 26141 26610
Gdp From Agriculture 180654.00
EUR Thousand		 278622 178355 186254 261235 188666
Gdp From Construction 207224.00
EUR Thousand		 409554 387329 213648 273885 409721
Gdp From Manufacturing 589203.00
EUR Thousand		 705351 722656 607468 752439 764434
Gdp From Mining 232153.00
EUR Thousand		 166760 216261 239350 203053 228764
Gdp From Public Administration 253995.00
EUR Thousand		 321141 469532 261869 344398 496676
Gdp From Services 695256.00
EUR Thousand		 935085 901383 716809 769346 953494
Gdp From Transport 530926.00
EUR Thousand		 563014 542209 547385 561782 573555
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.20
percent		 8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2
Employed Persons 898.00
Thousand 		907 906 905 907 910
Unemployed Persons 59119.00
 57810 57481 57385 57355 57342
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.20
percent		 2.28 2.09 2.05 1.95 1.52
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.70
percent		 10.7 10.18 10.4 10.27 10.31
Labour Costs 133.07
Index Points		 133 133 133 133 133
Job Vacancies 20886.00
 24115 24853 26077 27193 31443
Wages 733.00
EUR/Month		 720 790 770 719 880
Minimum Wages 430.00
EUR/Month		 430 430 480 457 540
Population 1.93
Million		 1.93 1.93 1.91 1.91 1.89
Retirement Age Women 63.25
 63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Retirement Age Men 63.25
 63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent		 69.48 69.48 69.48 69.51 69.58
Part Time Employment 62.00
Thousand		 65.16 64.13 63.93 64.22 64.05
Productivity 112.00
Index Points		 130 129 113 126 127
Employment Change 0.90
percent		 0.28 0.17 0.11 0.06 -0.01
Employment Rate 66.70
percent		 68.81 69.27 70.41 71.13 73.07
Full Time Employment 799.70
Thousand		 812 812 815 818 822
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent		 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent		 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.59
Index Points		 107 107 108 109 112
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.50
Index Points		 106 108 108 109 113
Core Consumer Prices 105.96
Index Points		 106 105 106 108 110
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent		 1.99 2.04 2.07 2.1 2.15
GDP Deflator 1.21
percent		 1.22 1.2 1.23 1.22 1.23
Producer Prices 116.80
Index Points		 118 117 119 119 123
Producer Prices Change 3.70
percent		 3.24 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.4
Export Prices 103.90
Index Points		 100 100 99.87 99.83 99.8
Import Prices 98.00
Index Points		 90.8 88.75 87.44 86.54 84.72
CPI Housing Utilities 103.20
Index Points		 103 103 105 106 108
CPI Transportation 107.10
Index Points		 103 106 107 110 111
Food Inflation 0.20
percent		 0.7 3.2 3.77 3.31 3.8
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate 0.17
percent		 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.92
Money Supply M0 9729.30
EUR Million		 9704 9708 9707 9708 9707
Money Supply M1 10649.80
EUR Million		 10748 10776 10794 10813 10906
Money Supply M2 12774.50
EUR Million		 12637 12676 12559 12634 12615
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3858.00
USD Million		 3859 3859 3858 3859 3859
Banks Balance Sheet 24623.30
EUR Million		 24680 24788 24683 24787 24787
Loans To Private Sector 5286.60
EUR Million		 5194 5134 5085 5044 4865
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17970.80
EUR Million		 17786 17780 17782 17782 17782
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -230.50
EUR Million		 -330 -210 -190 -310 -210
Exports 1047.00
EUR Million		 1150 1040 1250 1180 1380
Imports 1277.50
EUR Million		 1480 1250 1440 1490 1590
Current Account -35.00
EUR Million		 -23.79 -20.16 -21.07 -20.96 -20.99
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent		 -1.2 -1.2 -1 -1 -0.7
External Debt 35416.00
EUR Million		 34928 34398 33973 33631 31412
Capital Flows 518000.00
EUR THO		 336991 419215 448902 405975 419562
Gold Reserves 6.60
Tonnes		 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0 0 0 0 0
Foreign Direct Investment 47.00
EUR Million		 45.34 46.7 46.46 46.5 46.5
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10
percent		 37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37
Government Budget -0.50
percent of GDP		 0.7 0.7 -2.37 -2.34 0.2
Government Budget Value 265296344.00
EUR Million		 65496 64506 66150 65201 65402
Government Spending 868734.00
EUR Thousand		 894946 1160721 895665 1046264 1227825
Government Spending to GDP 38.00
percent		 38.24 38.7 38.62 38.54 37.98
Government Revenues 1116723.00
EUR Thousand		 974233 968873 972484 971283 971537
Government Debt 9766.10
EUR Million		 9929 9836 9768 9739 9521
Fiscal Expenditure 849617.00
EUR Thousand		 908737 905256 906334 906083 906135
Military Expenditure 491.61
USD Million		 510 520 520 521 502
Asylum Applications 15.00
persons		 23.01 23.81 24.15 24.31 24.43
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.70
Index Points		 2.53 2.62 2.51 2.6 2.57
Industrial Production -1.10
percent		 -0.22 -1.3 -0.84 -0.95 1
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent		 -0.07 0.5 -0.09 -0.1 0.6
Manufacturing Production 2.90
percent		 2.1 1.49 1.81 1.65 1.7
Capacity Utilization 76.30
percent		 76.38 76.56 76.4 76.36 76.32
Car Registrations 4211.00
 4280 4367 4309 4477 4477
Internet Speed 16580.44
KBps		 19012 19338 19687 20043 23524
IP Addresses 878525.00
IP		 965654 980175 994696 1009217 1154419
Mining Production 7.10
percent		 5.12 6.18 6.57 6.71 6.78
Changes In Inventories -14066.00
EUR Thousand		 148984 -3408 29501 71759 39277
Competitiveness Index 4.40
Points		 4.37 4.37 4.31 4.29 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 54.00
 56 56 61 63 63
Ease of Doing Business 19.00
 17 17 17 17 18
Electricity Production 831.00
Gigawatt-hour		 565 613 617 608 610
Corruption Index 58.00
Points		 59 59 59 59 59
Corruption Rank 40.00
 42 41 42 43 43
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.60
Index Points		 -7.34 -7.21 -7.24 -7.23 -7.23
Retail Sales MoM 3.40
percent		 0.87 0.55 0.62 0.61 0.61
Retail Sales YoY 7.00
percent		 7.03 7.33 7.52 7.61 7.72
Consumer Spending 3503249.00
EUR Thousand		 3917194 3736756 3611850 3713280 3952785
Personal Savings 2.66
percent		 1.73 1.38 1.08 0.78 -0.03
Consumer Credit 503.00
EUR Million		 507 509 511 513 525
Bank Lending Rate 3.79
percent		 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 4.54
Economic Optimism Index 105.90
 105 105 105 105 105
Gasoline Prices 1.47
USD/Liter		 1.39 1.31 1.24 1.17 0.67
Households Debt To Income 37.56
percent		 36.52 37.05 36.63 36.21 33.04
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 128.65
Index Points		 139 141 143 144 146
Home Ownership Rate 81.50
percent		 81.62 81.75 81.81 81.86 82.33
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 31.40
percent		 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 35.09
percent		 35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09
Social Security Rate For Companies 24.09
percent		 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 46.46
mm		 73.65 54.63 36.15 56.38 54.93
Temperature 2.26
celsius		 15.21 0.42 -4.62 9.08 5.47