This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.

Overview	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.80	0.8	0.9	0.5	1.6	0.6	percent
Unemployment Rate	7.00	8.1	8	8	6.2	8.2	percent
Inflation Rate	3.20	3.6	2.9	2.7	2.8	2.2	percent
Interest Rate	0.00	0	0	0	0.25	0.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-349.10	-210	-190	-310	-228	-210	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	40.10	37.6	37.2	37.2	37.2	37	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Currency	1.14	1.15	1.14	1.13	1.13	1.1
Stock Market	941.64 points	961	946	932	918	863
Government Bond 10y	0.55 percent	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55

GDP	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.80 percent	0.8	0.9	0.5	1.6	0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate	4.80 percent	2.7	3.1	2.9	3.3	2.8
GDP	30.26 USD Billion	40	44	44	44	48
GDP Constant Prices	5997093.00 EUR Thousand	6283647	5373523	6171009	6194997	6730892
Gross National Product	7150.00 EUR Million	7337	6740	7357	7386	7859
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	1486248.00 EUR Thousand	1652682	1137302	1529349	1535294	1770314
GDP per capita	15553.33 USD	15961	16200	16200	16200	16902
GDP per capita PPP	25063.85 USD	25617	26141	26141	26141	26610
GDP From Agriculture	286036.00 EUR Thousand	176635	186254	294331	295475	189207
GDP From Construction	346543.00 EUR Thousand	383594	213648	356593	357979	410896
GDP From Manufacturing	730513.00 EUR Thousand	715688	607468	751698	754620	766627
GDP From Mining	166872.00 EUR Thousand	212715	239350	171711	172379	227856
GDP From Public Administration	335009.00 EUR Thousand	465004	261869	344724	346064	498101
GDP From Services	817915.00 EUR Thousand	892691	716809	841635	844906	956229
GDP From Transport	519403.00 EUR Thousand	536980	547386	534466	536543	575200

LABOUR	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	7.00 percent	8.1	8	8	6.2	8.2
Employed Persons	920.00 Thousand	920	919	925	929	936
Unemployed Persons	56726.00	56264	56072	56011	55994	55986
Long Term Unemployment Rate	3.20 percent	2.99	3.12	3.06	3.02	3.04
Youth Unemployment Rate	8.60 percent	9.38	8.83	9.13	8.95	9.02
Labour Costs	112.32 Index Points	106	103	103	105	106
Job Vacancies	24078.00	26317	27697	29154	30192	35005
Wages	755.00 EUR/Month	790	770	747	747	880
Minimum Wages	430.00 EUR/Month	430	480	480	480	540
Population	1.93 Million	1.93	1.91	1.91	1.91	1.89
Retirement Age Women	63.25	63.25	63.5	63.25	63.25	63.75
Retirement Age Men	63.25	63.25	63.5	63.25	63.25	63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate	70.20 percent	70.09	70.08	70.2	70.29	70.4
Part Time Employment	59.60 Thousand	60.55	59.88	59.68	60.29	59.66
Productivity	128.10 Index Points	130	113	129	131	128
Employment Change	-0.30 percent	0.02	0.02	0	0	0
Employment Rate	65.30 percent	65.43	65.41	65.76	66.11	66.64
Full Time Employment	813.80 Thousand	817	817	824	826	831

PRICES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Inflation Rate	3.20 percent	3.6	2.9	2.7	2.8	2.2
Inflation Rate Mom	0.70 percent	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices	106.75 Index Points	107	108	109	109	112
Consumer Price Index CPI	106.90 Index Points	108	108	109	109	113
Core Consumer Prices	105.75 Index Points	105	106	108	108	110
Core Inflation Rate	2.00 percent	2.03	2.09	2.12	2.15	2.2
GDP Deflator	1.21 percent	1.22	1.24	1.23	1.25	1.26
Producer Prices	119.70 Index Points	124	120	122	124	134
Producer Prices Change	5.00 percent	4.3	3.8	3.6	3.5	2.4
Export Prices	104.90 Index Points	105	105	105	105	105
Import Prices	99.50 Index Points	99.42	99.46	99.47	99.47	99.48
CPI Housing Utilities	104.90 Index Points	103	105	106	107	108
CPI Transportation	107.20 Index Points	106	107	110	109	111
Food Inflation	1.00 percent	3.2	3.77	3.31	3.76	3.8

MONEY	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Interest Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0.25	0.75
Interbank Rate	0.17 percent	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.42	0.92
Money Supply M0	8842.00 EUR Million	8825	8820	8821	8821	8821
Money Supply M1	11515.10 EUR Million	11713	11913	12099	12265	13188
Money Supply M2	13582.20 EUR Million	13887	14121	14341	14540	15685
Foreign Exchange Reserves	3873.00 USD Million	3870	3870	3867	3869	3868
Banks Balance Sheet	21799.00 EUR Million	19628	18431	17772	17216	16105
Loans To Private Sector	5047.30 EUR Million	4902	4801	4725	4665	4418
Central Bank Balance Sheet	18063.00 EUR Million	18140	18142	18142	18142	18142

TRADE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-349.10 EUR Million	-210	-190	-310	-228	-210
Exports	1034.46 EUR Million	1040	1250	1180	1033	1380
Imports	1383.59 EUR Million	1250	1440	1490	1396	1590
Current Account	-46.00 EUR Million	-47.09	-45.43	-45.29	-45.25	-45.27
Current Account to GDP	-0.80 percent	-1.9	-2.4	-2.4	-2.4	-2.7
External Debt	35568.00 EUR Million	34910	34588	34325	34063	32562
Capital Flows	576000.00 EUR THO	537372	571596	554821	540848	554707
Gold Reserves	6.60 Tonnes	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6
Terrorism Index	0.00	0	0	0	0	0
Foreign Direct Investment	154.00 EUR Million	74.23	78.66	87.15	84.8	84.58

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	40.10 percent	37.6	37.2	37.2	37.2	37
Government Budget	-0.50 percent of GDP	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.2
Government Budget Value	-18040630.00 EUR Million	73086	58655	63618	62733	62854
Government Spending	1050484.00 EUR Thousand	1149528	895665	1080948	1085150	1231347
Government Spending to GDP	38.00 percent	38	38	38	38	38
Government Revenues	846658.00 EUR Thousand	990577	959214	965749	964448	964657
Government Debt	10385.80 EUR Million	10229	10203	10236	10216	10220
Fiscal Expenditure	879214.00 EUR Thousand	907274	900559	902131	901715	901802
Military Expenditure	491.61 USD Million	520	520	521	522	502
Asylum Applications	10.00 persons	19.45	20.68	21.27	21.55	21.82

BUSINESS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Business Confidence	3.90 Index Points	3.59	3.71	3.75	3.68	3.72
Industrial Production	-1.20 percent	-1.15	0.53	-0.57	-0.07	1
Industrial Production Mom	-3.30 percent	0.5	0.34	0.35	0.28	0.6
Manufacturing Production	2.00 percent	1.33	2.38	1.74	2.09	1.97
Capacity Utilization	75.90 percent	77.45	76.03	75.87	75.67	75.84
Car Registrations	4192.00	4261	4055	4481	4023	4142
Internet Speed	16580.44 KBps	19338	19687	20043	20390	23524
IP Addresses	878525.00 IP	980175	994696	1009217	1023738	1154419
Mining Production	2.70 percent	5.42	6.44	6.73	6.81	6.84
Changes In Inventories	-48267.00 EUR Thousand	-45132	1062	-34595	65926	-21608
Competitiveness Index	66.25 Points	66.75	66.75	66.75	66.75	69.25
Competitiveness Rank	42.00	42	42	42	42	42
Ease of Doing Business	19.00	17	18	18	19	19
Electricity Production	398.00 Gigawatt-hour	531	536	517	519	521
Corruption Index	58.00 Points	58	58	58	58	58
Corruption Rank	40.00	40	40	40	40	40

CONSUMER	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	-8.20 Index Points	-7.93	-7.88	-7.89	-7.89	-7.89
Retail Sales MoM	1.60 percent	1.1	2.1	1.9	1.8	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	3.50 percent	3.8	3.3	3.4	3.2	4.2
Consumer Spending	3726501.00 EUR Thousand	3700722	3606167	3834570	3849476	3964124
Personal Savings	2.66 percent	1.38	1.08	0.78	0.48	-0.03
Consumer Credit	515.10 EUR Million	520	523	527	530	549
Bank Lending Rate	3.61 percent	3.61	3.61	3.61	3.86	4.36
Economic Optimism Index	107.20	107	107	107	107	108
Gasoline Prices	1.51 USD/Liter	1.49	1.46	1.43	1.41	1.3
Households Debt To Income	35.94 percent	35.31	35.52	35.72	35.93	40.28

HOUSING	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Housing Index	129.91 Index Points	133	134	134	134	134
Construction Output	3.90 percent	9.1	5.73	7.27	7.17	6.83
Home Ownership Rate	81.50 percent	81.75	81.81	81.86	81.92	82.33

TAXES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	20.00 percent	20	20	20	20	20
Personal Income Tax Rate	31.40 percent	31.4	31.4	31.4	31.4	31.4
Sales Tax Rate	21.00 percent	21	21	21	21	21
Social Security Rate	35.09 percent	35.09	35.09	35.09	35.09	35.09
Social Security Rate For Companies	24.09 percent	24.09	24.09	24.09	24.09	24.09
Social Security Rate For Employees	11.00 percent	11	11	11	11	11

CLIMATE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Precipitation	46.46 mm	54.63	36.15	56.38	56.38	54.93
Temperature	2.26 celsius	0.42	-4.62	9.08	7.58	5.47

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Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

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