Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.6	percent
Unemployment Rate	7.70	8.2	8.1	8	8	8.2	percent
Inflation Rate	2.80	3.4	3.6	2.9	2.7	2.2	percent
Interest Rate	0.00	0	0	0	0	0.75	percent
Balance of Trade	-405.60	-330	-210	-190	-310	-210	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	40.10	37.6	37.6	37.2	37.2	37	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	1.18	1.16	1.15	1.15	1.14	1.12
Stock Market	986.72 points	969	955	940	926	872
Government Bond 10y	0.55 percent	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	0.90 percent	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate	5.30 percent	3.7	3.7	3.1	3.3	2.8
GDP	30.26 USD Billion	40	40	44	44	48
GDP Constant Prices	5997093.00 EUR Thousand	6074394	6344832	5373523	6194997	6711639
Gross National Product	7150.00 EUR Million	7175	7408	6740	7386	7837
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	1486248.00 EUR Thousand	1582853	1668775	1137302	1535294	1765250
GDP per capita	15553.33 USD	15961	15961	16200	16200	16902
GDP per capita PPP	25063.85 USD	25617	25617	26141	26141	26610
Gdp From Agriculture	286036.00 EUR Thousand	288749	178355	186254	295475	188666
Gdp From Construction	346543.00 EUR Thousand	409554	387329	213648	357979	409721
Gdp From Manufacturing	730513.00 EUR Thousand	705351	722656	607468	754620	764434
Gdp From Mining	166872.00 EUR Thousand	167314	214787	239350	172379	227204
Gdp From Public Administration	335009.00 EUR Thousand	321141	469532	261869	346064	496676
Gdp From Services	817915.00 EUR Thousand	926160	901383	716809	844906	953494
Gdp From Transport	519403.00 EUR Thousand	560844	542209	547386	536543	573555

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	7.70 percent	8.2	8.1	8	8	8.2
Employed Persons	909.60 Thousand	916	915	914	919	927
Unemployed Persons	58888.00	57810	57481	57385	57355	57342
Long Term Unemployment Rate	3.20 percent	2.86	2.81	2.9	2.8	2.69
Youth Unemployment Rate	9.50 percent	9.12	8.92	8.88	8.87	8.87
Labour Costs	133.07 Index Points	133	133	133	133	133
Job Vacancies	20886.00	24115	24853	26077	27193	31443
Wages	755.00 EUR/Month	720	790	770	747	880
Minimum Wages	430.00 EUR/Month	430	430	480	480	540
Population	1.93 Million	1.93	1.93	1.91	1.91	1.89
Retirement Age Women	63.25	63.25	63.25	63.5	63	63.75
Retirement Age Men	63.25	63.25	63.25	63.5	63	63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate	69.20 percent	69.48	69.48	69.48	69.51	69.58
Part Time Employment	62.00 Thousand	64.13	63.01	62.48	63.1	62.76
Productivity	128.10 Index Points	132	130	113	129	128
Employment Change	-0.30 percent	0.11	0.02	0.02	0	0
Employment Rate	64.40 percent	65.06	65.08	65.07	65.41	66.06
Full Time Employment	799.70 Thousand	807	807	807	809	813

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.80 percent	3.4	3.6	2.9	2.7	2.2
Inflation Rate Mom	-0.10 percent	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices	105.78 Index Points	107	107	108	109	112
Consumer Price Index CPI	105.50 Index Points	106	108	108	109	113
Core Consumer Prices	105.31 Index Points	106	105	106	108	110
Core Inflation Rate	1.70 percent	2.03	2.1	2.15	2.19	2.28
GDP Deflator	1.21 percent	1.23	1.22	1.24	1.23	1.26
Producer Prices	119.00 Index Points	119	119	120	122	126
Producer Prices Change	4.80 percent	4.5	4.3	3.8	3.6	2.4
Export Prices	104.80 Index Points	105	105	105	106	106
Import Prices	98.60 Index Points	97.36	96.76	96.31	96.02	95.44
CPI Housing Utilities	104.20 Index Points	103	103	105	106	108
CPI Transportation	106.30 Index Points	103	106	107	110	111
Food Inflation	-0.20 percent	0.7	3.2	3.77	3.31	3.8

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0	0.75
Interbank Rate	0.17 percent	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.92
Money Supply M0	8679.00 EUR Million	8521	8535	8527	8528	8528
Money Supply M1	11536.00 EUR Million	11700	11908	12172	12404	13818
Money Supply M2	13665.70 EUR Million	13782	14092	14394	14670	16419
Foreign Exchange Reserves	3839.00 USD Million	3847	3847	3849	3848	3848
Banks Balance Sheet	21645.30 EUR Million	20086	18187	16353	14997	10190
Loans To Private Sector	4941.80 EUR Million	4800	4452	4167	3932	2892
Central Bank Balance Sheet	17948.50 EUR Million	17929	17927	17923	17925	17924

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-405.60 EUR Million	-330	-210	-190	-310	-210
Exports	949.75 EUR Million	1150	1040	1250	1180	1380
Imports	1355.42 EUR Million	1480	1250	1440	1490	1590
Current Account	-29.00 EUR Million	-23.79	-20.16	-21.07	-20.96	-20.99
Current Account to GDP	-0.80 percent	-1.2	-1.2	-1	-1	-0.7
External Debt	35568.00 EUR Million	35381	34910	34588	34325	32562
Capital Flows	576000.00 EUR THO	473301	537372	571596	554821	554707
Gold Reserves	6.60 Tonnes	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6
Terrorism Index	0.00	0	0	0	0	0
Foreign Direct Investment	77.00 EUR Million	47.32	47.93	47.84	47.86	47.85

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	40.10 percent	37.6	37.6	37.2	37.2	37
Government Budget	-0.50 percent of GDP	0.7	0.7	-2.37	-2.34	0.2
Government Budget Value	209254626.00 EUR Million	117834	115605	117465	116334	116631
Government Spending	1050484.00 EUR Thousand	895183	1160721	895665	1085150	1227825
Government Spending to GDP	38.00 percent	38.24	38.7	38.62	38.54	37.98
Government Revenues	1145896.00 EUR Thousand	1033043	1024353	1027659	1026361	1026711
Government Debt	9766.10 EUR Million	9929	9836	9768	9739	9521
Fiscal Expenditure	945464.00 EUR Thousand	915209	909742	910194	910027	910080
Military Expenditure	491.61 USD Million	510	520	520	521	502
Asylum Applications	10.00 persons	23.01	23.81	24.15	24.31	24.43

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	3.90 Index Points	4.29	3.59	3.71	3.75	3.72
Industrial Production	3.60 percent	0.7	2.13	2.52	2.46	1
Industrial Production Mom	1.70 percent	0.2	0.5	0.22	0.22	0.6
Manufacturing Production	1.20 percent	1.17	0.43	0.86	0.63	0.71
Capacity Utilization	77.40 percent	76.38	76.56	76.4	76.36	76.32
Car Registrations	4945.00	4280	4367	4309	4477	4477
Internet Speed	16580.44 KBps	19012	19338	19687	20043	23524
IP Addresses	878525.00 IP	965654	980175	994696	1009217	1154419
Mining Production	11.40 percent	9.57	7.59	7.09	6.96	6.89
Changes In Inventories	-48267.00 EUR Thousand	108552	-45132	1062	-34595	-21608
Competitiveness Index	4.40 Points	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.29	4.22
Competitiveness Rank	54.00	56	56	61	63	63
Ease of Doing Business	19.00	17	17	17	17	18
Electricity Production	316.00 Gigawatt-hour	514	589	557	548	555
Corruption Index	58.00 Points	59	59	59	59	59
Corruption Rank	40.00	42	41	42	43	43

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	-8.20 Index Points	-7.72	-7.93	-7.88	-7.89	-7.89
Retail Sales MoM	-0.10 percent	0.9	1.1	2.1	1.9	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	4.30 percent	4.5	3.8	3.3	3.4	4.2
Consumer Spending	3726501.00 EUR Thousand	3917108	3736756	3606167	3849476	3952785
Personal Savings	2.66 percent	1.73	1.38	1.08	0.78	-0.03
Consumer Credit	505.30 EUR Million	508	510	513	515	528
Bank Lending Rate	3.55 percent	3.55	3.55	3.55	3.55	4.3
Economic Optimism Index	105.90	105	105	105	105	105
Gasoline Prices	1.51 USD/Liter	1.54	1.45	1.37	1.3	1.02
Households Debt To Income	37.56 percent	36.52	37.05	36.63	36.21	33.04

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Housing Index	128.65 Index Points	139	141	143	144	146
Home Ownership Rate	81.50 percent	81.62	81.75	81.81	81.86	82.33

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	20.00 percent	20	20	20	20	20
Personal Income Tax Rate	31.40 percent	31.4	31.4	31.4	31.4	31.4
Sales Tax Rate	21.00 percent	21	21	21	21	21
Social Security Rate	35.09 percent	35.09	35.09	35.09	35.09	35.09
Social Security Rate For Companies	24.09 percent	24.09	24.09	24.09	24.09	24.09
Social Security Rate For Employees	11.00 percent	11	11	11	11	11

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	46.46 mm	73.65	54.63	36.15	56.38	54.93
Temperature	2.26 celsius	15.21	0.42	-4.62	9.08	5.47

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