The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4 in December 2019, compared to the flash figure of 48.8 and the previous month's final 48.9. Output fell at the second-fastest rate in over three-and-a-half years, only narrowly beaten by March's decline. In addition, new orders continued to drop amid a further reduction in new export sales due to global trade conflicts and lower demand from China. Stocks of purchases were also trimmed, with firms reporting cost-cutting efforts and reduced purchasing activity. On a positive note, employment continued to rise and business optimism towards output strengthened to an eight-month high. In terms of prices, input costs rose the most since August while output charges were reduced slightly and for the seventh month in a row. Manufacturing PMI in Japan averaged 50.20 points from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 56.20 points in January of 2014 and a record low of 29.60 points in February of 2009. source: Markit Economics

Manufacturing PMI in Japan is expected to be 50.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Japan to stand at 51.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 50.20 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Japan Manufacturing PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
48.40 48.90 56.20 29.60 2008 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Japan Manufacturing Shrinks for 8th Month
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8 in December 2019, little-changed from 48.9 in the prior month and slightly above market consensus of 48.4, a flash figure showed. Output, new orders and new export orders all declined, amid unfavourable demand conditions. In addition, employment growth slowed, while backlogs of work fell and supplier delivery times improved for the first time since April 2016. On the price front, output prices continued to fall, while input price inflation accelerated. Lastly, business sentiment strengthened.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Revised Higher
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.9 in November 2019 from a flash figure of 48.6 and compared to a final 48.4 in October. The latest reading pointed to the seventh straight month of contraction in factory activity, as falling order book volumes led to an eleventh successive month-on-month fall in production. Weakness was particularly apparent in overseas markets, with export demand deteriorating at the fastest pace in five months. Meanwhile, employment rose the most since April, amid the fastest rate of depletion in backlogs since December 2012. On the price front, output prices fell faster, while input cost inflation slowed. Looking ahead, business sentiment remained subdued.

Japan Manufacturing Shrinks for 7th Month
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.6 in November 2019 from a final 48.4 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of 48.7, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading pointed to the seventh straight month of contraction in factory activity, with output, new orders and new export orders all falling. Meanwhile, employment growth accelerated and backlogs of works depleted further. On the price front, output prices fell faster, while input cost inflation slowed. Looking ahead, sentiment strengthened.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Revised Lower to 3-Year Low
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.4 in October 2019 from a preliminary 48.5 and compared to a final 48.9 in the previous month. This was the sixth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since June 2016, due to the impact of the typhoon and amid ongoing trade row between the US and China. Output fell the most in seven months and total new orders dropped the most since May 2016, led by another decline in new export orders. In addition, buying level fell at the sharpest rate in three months. Meantime, employment growth picked up to a six-month high, while backlogs of work declined. On the price front, input cost inflation remained relatively subdued. Lastly, business confidence edged up slightly.

Japan Manufacturing Shrinks the Most Since 2016
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 in October 2019 from a final 48.9 in September and missing market consensus of 48.8, a preliminary reading showed. This was the sixth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity and the steepest since June 2016, amid reports of weaker global trade conditions and softer growth at key export markets. New orders fell the most in nearly seven years and overseas sales also shrank but at a weaker pace. Meantime, output declined strongly with backlogs of work depleting faster. On the price front, input price inflation slowed, while selling charge decreased at a softer rate. Looking ahead, sentiment turned to negative.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Confirmed at 7-Month Low
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 48.9 in September 2019, compared to a final 49.3 in August, signalling a sharper deterioration in the health of the manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders declined at accelerated rates and overseas sales fell for the tenth month in a row, amid lower demand from China, the US and Europe. Also, firms tapered their purchasing of inputs, while pre-production stocks fell the most in eight months. At the same time, employment growth slowed, due to lower inflows of new work and the retirement of ageing employees. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to a near three-year low, while selling prices were reduced for a fourth month in succession. Looking ahead, confidence was subdued on the back of global trade frictions and fears of a domestic economic slowdown.

Japan Manufacturing PMI
The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI® is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. Survey responses indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.

Japan Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 0.00 5.00 53.00 -58.00 points [+]
Services Pmi 49.40 50.30 55.30 46.40 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.40 48.90 56.20 29.60 points [+]
Industrial Production -8.20 -7.70 30.00 -37.20 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.00 -4.50 6.80 -16.50 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -8.10 -7.70 29.30 -37.20 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 95.50 95.80 136.10 68.60 points [+]
New Orders 1153.53 1013.55 1624.17 693.64 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 18.00 -6.00 25.50 -17.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 871.20 1934.00 7639.10 -6605.20 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 704.00 728.00 1965.00 6.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 17323.17 23232.47 26401.12 43.24 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 95.10 95.30 106.90 69.40 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 39.80 39.40 57.50 18.90 [+]
Car Production 667462.00 714844.00 961994.00 249772.00 Units [+]
Car Registrations 194765.00 205814.00 585449.00 83044.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index 90.90 91.60 108.00 72.50 points [+]
Small Business Sentiment -9.00 -4.00 46.00 -60.00 [+]
Internet Speed 20171.96 19574.52 20171.96 6541.92 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 43689566.00 43995715.00 44977757.00 23570249.00 IP [+]
Private Investment 7.10 1.90 12.80 -25.33 percent [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 20.00 21.00 57.00 -41.00 points [+]
Machine Tool Orders 89969.00 81669.00 182860.00 19037.00 JPY Million [+]
Mining Production -9.80 -3.40 16.20 -16.10 percent [+]
Tertiary Industry Index 105.40 104.70 109.70 73.20 points [+]
Reuters Tankan Index -6.00 -6.00 39.00 -78.00 points [+]
Steel Production 7742.91 8157.07 10775.00 1177.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 5198.00 5076.00 9368.00 4218.00 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
All Industry Activity Index 103.60 108.20 108.70 94.20 points [+]
Competitiveness Index 82.27 82.47 82.47 5.36 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 5.00 10.00 5.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.60 49.80 54.10 46.30 points [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 73.00 80.00 58.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 20.00 25.00 14.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 29.00 39.00 39.00 13.00 [+]