Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, rebounded 7.6 percent in October 2018, after an 18.3 percent decline in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 10.5 percent increase. It was the biggest gain in machinery orders in three months, as manufacturing orders advanced 12.3 percent (vs -17.3 percent in September), mainly nudged by sharp rebounds in petroleum & coal products (+490.2 percent vs -23.7 percent), food & beverage (+170.6 percent vs -47.7 percent), non-ferrous metals (+173.2 percent vs -41.4 percent), and ship building (+60.6 percent vs -19.3 percent). Additionally, non-manufacturing orders rose by 4.5 percent following a 17.1 percent drop. Year-on-year, core machinery orders climbed 4.5 percent, after declining 7.0 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of a 5.9 percent gain. Machinery Orders in Japan averaged 0.27 percent from 1987 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25.50 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -18.30 percent in September of 2018.
Machinery Orders in Japan is expected to be -0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Machinery Orders in Japan to stand at 0.17 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Machinery Orders is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.