Industrial production in Japan fell 3.4 percent month-on-month in January 2019, less than the preliminary figure of a 3.7 percent drop but much faster than a 0.1 percent decline in December. This was the third straight month of fall in industrial output and the steepest since January 2018. Production shrank further for: fabricated metals (-4 pct vs -0.6 pct in December); production machinery (-9.6 pct vs -3.5 pct); business oriented machinery (-5.5 pct vs -0.3 pct); electronic parts (-7.8 pct vs -2.6 pct); and chemicals (-1.8 pct vs -1.2 pct). In addition, output slumped for: iron & steel (-4.8 pct vs 0.1 pct); general-purposes machinery (-7.1 pct vs 6.5 pct); electrical machinery (-10.5 pct vs 3.2 pct); transport equipment (-6.4 pct vs 0.6 pct); and motor vehicles (-8.6 pct vs 1.1 pct). Meanwhile, output of petroleum and coal products (0.6 pct vs -2.5 pct). On an annual basis, industrial output rose 0.3 percent in January, following a 1.9 percent fall in December. Industrial Production Mom in Japan averaged 0.40 percent from 1953 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in May of 2011 and a record low of -16.50 percent in March of 2011.
Industrial Production Mom in Japan is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Japan to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.