Industrial production in Japan dropped 1 percent month-on-month in November 2018, compared to a preliminary figure of a 1.1 percent fall and following a 2.9 percent surge in October. Output fell for: general-purpose machinery (-12.7 pct vs 9 pct in November); non-ferrous metals (-1 pct vs 1.7 pct); business oriented machinery (-2.4 pct vs 0.6 pct); electronic parts & devices (-1.7 pct vs 8.7 pct); electrical machinery (-3.5 pct vs 3.1 pct); and transport equipment (-0.2 pct vs 4.6 pct). In contrast, output grew for: iron & steel (0.8 pct vs 3.6 pct); motor vehicles (0.2 pct vs 3.1 pct); fabricated metals (1.1 pct vs 2.5 pct); information & communication electronics equipment (2 pct vs 10.4 pct); chemicals (1.6 pct vs 1.3 pct); production machinery (2.8 pct vs -3.1 pct); and petroleum & coal products (5.5 pct vs -5.3 pct). On an annual basis, output rose 1.5 percent in November. Industrial Production Mom in Japan averaged 0.41 percent from 1953 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in May of 2011 and a record low of -16.50 percent in March of 2011.
Industrial Production Mom in Japan is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Japan to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.