Housing starts in Japan slumped 12.7 percent year-on-year in November 2019, after a 7.4 percent fall in the previous month and compared to market consensus of an 8.1 percent drop. This was the fifth straight month of decline in housing starts and the steepest since January 2018, as new construction starts fell further for owned (-7.3 percent vs -5.6 percent in October), rented (-17.5 percent vs -16.5 percent), issued (-52.1 percent vs -58.7 percent), prefabricated (-14.8 percent vs -7.9 percent) and two-by-four (-5.4 percent vs -12.7 percent). Also, starts for built for sale fell for the first time in six months (-10.3 percent vs 7 percent), mainly due to collective housing (-23.6 percent vs 16.2 percent). Housing Starts in Japan averaged 2.39 percent from 1961 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 67.63 percent in March of 1972 and a record low of -43.96 percent in September of 2007. source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Housing Starts in Japan is expected to be -1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Starts in Japan to stand at 2.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Housing Starts is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Japan Housing Starts

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-12.70 -7.40 67.63 -43.96 1961 - 2019 percent Monthly
NSA



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-30 05:00 AM Aug -7.1% -4.1% -6.1% -4%
2019-10-31 05:00 AM Sep -4.9% -7.1% -6.7% -5.8%
2019-11-29 05:00 AM Oct -7.4% -4.9% -7.6% -6.4%
2019-12-26 05:00 AM Nov -12.7% -7.4% -8.1% -7.4%
2020-01-31 05:00 AM Dec -12.7% -1.2%


News Stream
2019-11-29
Japan Housing Starts Fall for 4th Month
Housing starts in Japan slumped 7.4 percent year-on-year in October 2019, the fourth straight month of decline, after a 4.9 percent fall in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 7.6 percent drop. New construction starts fell for owned (-5.6 percent vs -3.5 percent in September), rented (-16.5 percent vs -16.8 percent), issued (-58.7 percent vs -24.7 percent), prefabricated (-7.9 percent vs -5.8 percent) and two-by-four (-12.7 percent vs -6.9 percent). In contrast, there were increases in starts for built for sale (7 percent vs 14.1 percent), boosted by both collective housing (16.2 percent vs 34.6 percent) and detached houses (1.4 percent vs 0.1 percent).

2019-10-31
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less than Expected
Housing starts in Japan slumped 4.9 percent year-on-year in September 2019, the third straight month of decline and compared to market consensus of a 6.7 percent drop. New construction starts fell for issued (-24.7% vs -64.3% in August), two-by-four (-6.9% vs -12.5%), owned (-3.5% vs -1.6%), rented (-16.8% vs -17.5%), and prefabricated (-5.8% vs -5.3%). In contrast, starts rose for built for sale (14.1% vs 5.6%), boosted by both collective housing (34.6% vs 11.1%) and detached houses (0.1% vs 2.4%).

2019-09-30
Japan Housing Starts Fall More than Expected
Housing starts in Japan declined by 7.1 percent year-on-year in August 2019, compared to the previous month's 4.1 percent drop and market consensus of a 6.1 percent fall, led by decreases in owned (-1.6 percent vs 3.3 percent in July), rented (-17.5 percent vs -15.2 percent), issued (-64.3 percent vs -43.3 percent), prefabricated (-5.3 percent vs 0.7 percent), and two-by-four (-12.5 percent vs -4.1 percent). On the other hand, new construction starts for built for sale grew faster (5.6 percent vs 5.1 percent), due to a sharp rebound in collective housing (11.1 percent vs -1.1 percent) and a further rise in detached houses (2.4 percent vs 8.9 percent).

2019-08-30
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less than Estimated
Housing starts in Japan declined by 4.1 percent year-on-year in July 2019, compared to market consensus of a 5.4 percent fall and reversing a 0.3 percent gain in the previous month. There were falls in construction starts for both rented (-15.2 percent vs -12.2 percent in June) and two-by-four (-4.1 percent vs -0.6 percent). In addition, starts rose much softer for both owned (3.3 percent vs 12.9 percent) and prefabricated (0.7 percent vs 8.9 percent). Also, new construction starts for built for sale grew less (5.1 percent vs 7.8 percent), due to a drop in collective housing (-1.1 percent vs -4.2 percent) while detached houses eased (8.9 percent vs 10 percent). Meanwhile, starts for issued increased for the first time in three months (43.3 percent vs -34.3 percent).

2019-07-31
Japan Housing Starts Rise Unexpectedly in June
Housing starts in Japan rose 0.3 percent year-on-year in June 2019, beating market consensus of a 3.4 percent fall and recovering from a 8.7 percent decline in the previous month. There were increases in new construction starts for built for sale (7.8 percent vs-11.4 percent), namely collective housing (4.2 percent vs -22.7 percent) and detached houses (10.0 percent vs-0.4 percent); prefabricated (8.9 percent vs -1.7 percent); and owned (12.9 percent vs 6.5 percent). In addition, starts fell at softer rates for: rented (-12.2 percent vs -15.8 percent); issued (-34.3 percent vs -68.6 percent); and two-by-four (-0.6 percent vs -3.0 percent).

2019-06-28
Japan Housing Starts Fall the Most in 1-1/2 Year
Housing starts in Japan dropped by 8.7 percent year-on-year in May 2019, worse than market consensus of a 4.3 percent fall and after a 5.7 percent decline in the previous month. This was the biggest yearly decrease in housing starts since January 2018. New construction starts fell for: built for sale (-11.4 percent vs -6 percent in April), in particular collective housing (-22.7 percent vs -15.1 percent) and detached houses (-0.4 percent vs 3.0 percent); rented (-15.8 percent vs -16.7 percent); two-by-four (-3 percent vs -11.6 percent); issued (-68.6 percent vs 75.9 percent) and prefabricated (-1.7 percent vs 1 percent).


Japan Housing Starts
In Japan, housing starts refers to the year-on-year change in volume of new housing construction started.

Japan Housing Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Housing Starts -12.70 -7.40 67.63 -43.96 percent [+]
Construction Orders -1.20 6.40 104.90 -42.80 percent [+]
Housing Index 113.20 112.86 116.44 97.26 points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.70 61.10 61.70 59.80 percent [+]
Construction Output -0.70 -1.40 14.50 -17.00 percent [+]