The yield on the 10-year JGB was around 0.43%, tracking a general rise in global bond yields, as investors anticipate that interest rates in the US will need to remain elevated for a longer period. In Japan, traders have reduced their expectations the Bank of Japan will soon adjust its monetary policy stance or discontinue its yield curve control policy. However, there are still some hopes that such changes may occur by the end of the year. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently told the Japanese parliament the central bank will continue monetary easing as there's still some distance to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Ueda added it expects inflation to quietly slow below 2% toward the middle of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024. Core inflation in Tokyo slowed in May, but the core rate hit a four-decade high.
Historically, the Japan Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 7.59 in June of 1984. Japan Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2023.
The Japan Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 0.45 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 0.58 in 12 months time.