The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to over six-year low of 0 in the fourth quarter of 2019 from 5 in the prior period and missing market expectations of 2. Sentiment deteriorated among enterprises producing: business oriented machinery (0 vs 16 in Q3), motor vehicles (-11 vs 2), iron & steel (-2 vs 7), production machinery (4 vs 11), processed metals (-14 vs -8), shipbuilding & heavy machinery (-7 vs 0), textiles (3 vs 9), and chemicals (2 vs 5). In contrast, sentiment rose among firms producing pulp & paper (11 vs 0), petroleum & coal products (-12 vs -18), nonferrous metals (-15 vs -18), and food & beverages (10 vs 7). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 6.8 percent, above estimates of 6 percent. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment eased to 20 from 21 in Q3, but beating forecasts of 16. Business Confidence in Japan averaged 1.53 Index Points from 1983 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 53 Index Points in the second quarter of 1989 and a record low of -58 Index Points in the first quarter of 2009. source: Bank of Japan

Business Confidence in Japan is expected to be 2.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Japan to stand at 9.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Business Confidence is projected to trend around 2.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Japan Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.00 5.00 53.00 -58.00 1983 - 2019 points Quarterly



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-31 11:50 PM Q1 12 19 13 18
2019-06-30 11:50 PM Q2 7 12 9 8
2019-09-30 11:50 PM Q3 5 7 2 1
2019-12-12 11:50 PM Q4 0 5 2 2
2020-03-31 11:50 PM Q1 0 12


News Stream
2019-10-01
Japan Business Sentiment Falls to 6-Year Low
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a six-year low of 5 in the third quarter of 2019 from 7 in the prior period and compared to market expectations of 2. Sentiment deteriorated among enterprises producing: petroleum & coal products (-18 vs 12 in Q2); non-ferrous metals (-18 vs 0); general-purpose machinery (15 vs 23); production machinery (11 vs 17); motor vehicles (2 vs 5); shipbuilding & heavy machinery (0 vs 7); chemicals (5 vs 8); ceramics, stone & clay (14 vs 24); iron & steel (7 vs 10); food & beverages (7 vs 9); and textiles (9 vs 11). In contrast, sentiment rose among companies producing lumber & wood products (6 vs 0); business-oriented machinery (16 vs 8); and electrical machinery (5 vs 2). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 6.6 percent. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment weakened to 21, but remained above forecasts of 20.

2019-06-30
Japan Business Sentiment Weakest in Nearly 3 Years
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a near three-year low of 7 in the second quarter of 2019 from 12 in the previous period, missing market consensus of 9. Sentiment softened among enterprises producing: chemicals (8 vs 12 in Q1); iron & steel (10 vs 12); food & beverages (9 vs 11); processed metals (-11 vs 8); production machinery (17 vs 31); business oriented machinery (8 vs 13); electrical machinery (2 vs 9); shipbuilding & heavy machinery (7 vs 11); and motor vehicles (5 vs 15). In contrast, sentiment rose among companies producing textiles (11 vs 3); lumber & wood products (-6 vs 0); pulp & paper (0 vs -11); petroleum & coal products (12 vs 6); and non-ferrous metals (0 vs -9). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 7.4 percent in the financial year to March 2020, against forecasts of an 8.9 percent increase. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment improved to 23 from a two-year low of 21 in Q1.

2019-04-01
Japan Q1 Business Morale Weakest in 2 Years
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a two-year low of 12 in the first quarter 2019 from 19 in the previous three-month period and below market consensus of 14. Sentiment softened among enterprises producing: chemicals (12 vs 24 in Q4); petroleum & coal products (6 vs 25); processed metals (8 vs 18); production machinery (31 vs 40); general-purpose machinery (20 vs 47); electrical machinery (9 vs 21); food & beverages (11 vs 12); lumber & wood products (-6 vs 0); pulp & paper (-11 vs 4); and non-ferrous metals (-9 vs 12). In contrast, confidence rose for firms producing: iron & steel (12 vs 7); and motor vehicles (15 vs 14), while was unchanged for firms producing textiles (at 3) and business oriented machinery (at 13). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 1.2 percent in Q1, much softer than a 14.3 percent rise in Q4. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment also declined to a two-year low of 21.


Japan Business Confidence
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Index of Sentiment at Large Manufacturers covers about 1,100 companies with capital over 1 billion Yen. The survey is done by mail or e-mail and asks participants to evaluate current trends and conditions in the business place and their respective industries as well as their expected business activities for the next quarter and year. The indicator is calculated by subtracting the percentage share of enterprises responding on the negative side from the share giving positive assessments. The index varies on a scale of -100 to 100 such that a value above zero indicates business optimism, a value below zero pessimism and 0 indicates neutrality.

Japan Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 0.00 5.00 53.00 -58.00 points [+]
Services Pmi 49.40 50.30 55.30 46.40 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.40 48.90 56.20 29.60 points [+]
Industrial Production -8.20 -7.70 30.00 -37.20 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.00 -4.50 6.80 -16.50 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -8.10 -7.70 29.30 -37.20 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 95.50 95.80 136.10 68.60 points [+]
New Orders 1153.53 1013.55 1624.17 693.64 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 18.00 -6.00 25.50 -17.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 871.20 1934.00 7639.10 -6605.20 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 704.00 728.00 1965.00 6.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 17323.17 23232.47 26401.12 43.24 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 95.10 95.30 106.90 69.40 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 39.80 39.40 57.50 18.90 [+]
Car Production 667462.00 714844.00 961994.00 249772.00 Units [+]
Car Registrations 194765.00 205814.00 585449.00 83044.00 [+]
Leading Economic Index 90.90 91.60 108.00 72.50 points [+]
Small Business Sentiment -9.00 -4.00 46.00 -60.00 [+]
Internet Speed 20171.96 19574.52 20171.96 6541.92 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 43689566.00 43995715.00 44977757.00 23570249.00 IP [+]
Private Investment 7.10 1.90 12.80 -25.33 percent [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 20.00 21.00 57.00 -41.00 points [+]
Machine Tool Orders 89969.00 81669.00 182860.00 19037.00 JPY Million [+]
Mining Production -9.80 -3.40 16.20 -16.10 percent [+]
Tertiary Industry Index 105.40 104.70 109.70 73.20 points [+]
Reuters Tankan Index -6.00 -6.00 39.00 -78.00 points [+]
Steel Production 7742.91 8157.07 10775.00 1177.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 5198.00 5076.00 9368.00 4218.00 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
All Industry Activity Index 103.60 108.20 108.70 94.20 points [+]
Competitiveness Index 82.27 82.47 82.47 5.36 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 5.00 10.00 5.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.60 49.80 54.10 46.30 points [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 73.00 80.00 58.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 20.00 25.00 14.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 29.00 39.00 39.00 13.00 [+]