Italy’s retail trade showed no growth in April of 2019 in a seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms, following a 0.3 percent fall in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Sales of non-food dropped at a faster 0.7 percent (from -0.3 percent in March) while food sales rose 1 percent, recovering from a 0.4 percent decrease. Year-on-year, retail trade advanced 4.2 percent, rebounding from a 3.3 percent decline in March. Retail Sales MoM in Italy averaged 0.05 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.20 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in May of 2004.
Retail Sales MoM in Italy is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Italy to stand at -0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.