Italy’s retail trade fell 0.7 percent from a month earlier in December of 2018, after a downwardly revised 0.6 percent rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.7 percent gain. Both non-food sales (-0.7 percent from 0.8 percent in November) and food sales (-0.6 percent from 0.2 percent) dropped. On a yearly basis, retail trade declined 0.6 percent, down from an upwardly revised 1.7 percent advance in November. Retail Sales MoM in Italy averaged 0.03 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.20 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in May of 2004.
Retail Sales MoM in Italy is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Italy to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.