Italy's retail trade edged up 0.1 percent from a month earlier in February 2019, matching market consensus and following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent growth in January. An increase in non-food sales (0.5 percent vs 0.2 percent in January) was partially offset by a decline in food sales (-0.6 percent vs 1 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade rose 0.9 percent, following a revised 1.2 percent gain and easily beating market expectations of 0.1 percent. Retail Sales MoM in Italy averaged 0.05 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.10 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in May of 2004.
Retail Sales MoM in Italy is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Italy to stand at -0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.