This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.10 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 8.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 2564.00 5100 6800 1800 4400 5400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 131.80 129 126 126 126 124 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.12
 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1
Stock Market 19055.92
points		 20332 20058 19786 19520 18487
Government Bond 10Y 3.46
percent		 3.27 3.39 3.51 3.64 4.19
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00
percent		 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80
percent		 1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8
GDP 1934.80
USD Billion		 2060 2120 2120 2120 2240
GDP Constant Prices 404509.00
EUR Million		 406453 408872 410489 410981 419976
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74445.00
EUR Million		 73931 73311 75562 75636 76391
GDP per capita 34877.83
USD		 35100 35600 35600 35600 36000
GDP per capita PPP 35220.08
USD		 35600 36000 36000 36000 36400
GDP From Agriculture 7057.00
EUR Million		 6955 7251 7163 7170 7186
GDP From Construction 16278.00
EUR Million		 16409 16452 16522 16538 16955
GDP From Manufacturing 69300.00
EUR Million		 69970 70020 70340 70409 72298
GDP From Services 271930.00
EUR Million		 273171 274873 276009 276281 282259
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.10
percent		 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 8.8
Employed Persons 23307.66
Thousand 		23900 24100 24400 24700 25900
Unemployed Persons 2612.81
Thousand 		2650 2620 2600 2580 2500
Part Time Employment 35331.72
Hundreds Person		 39000 39400 39800 40900 43000
Full Time Employment 141063.95
Hundreds Person		 146000 146700 147200 147600 149000
Employment Rate 58.80
percent		 58.4 58.5 58.6 58.8 59
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent		 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.4 66.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.40
percent		 5.5 5.2 5 4.9 4.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.60
percent		 30.2 29.8 29.5 28.9 27
Labour Costs 107.00
Index Points		 107 107 108 109 112
Wages 2434.00
EUR/Month		 2450 2459 2459 2459 2475
Wage Growth 1.90
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9
Wages in Manufacturing 113.50
Index Points		 114 114 115 115 120
Population 60.48
Million		 60.48 60.21 60.21 60.21 60.02
Retirement Age Women 65.58
 66.58 66 65.58 64 66
Retirement Age Men 66.58
 66.58 67 67 66.58 67
Wages High Skilled 2340.00
EUR/Month		 2430 2440 2440 2440 2560
Wages Low Skilled 1130.00
EUR/Month		 1290 1410 1410 1410 1480
Living Wage Family 1440.00
EUR/Month		 1450 1550 1550 1550 1650
Living Wage Individual 935.00
EUR/Month		 900 1020 1020 1020 1120
Employment Change 0.50
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent		 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.07 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.70
Index Points		 104 104 105 106 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.60
Index Points		 103 104 104 105 107
Core Consumer Prices 101.90
Index Points		 102 103 104 104 106
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent		 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8
GDP Deflator 109.02
Index Points		 112 112 113 114 117
Producer Prices 105.00
Index Points		 105 105 105 107 110
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent		 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2
Export Prices 108.50
Index Points		 109 109 110 110 112
Import Prices 108.90
Index Points		 110 111 112 112 115
Food Inflation 1.00
percent		 2.2 2 2.1 2.3 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities 104.70
Index Points		 102 104 102 105 107
CPI Transportation 105.60
Index Points		 105 105 108 108 109
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.07 0.43
Money Supply M1 1178020.00
EUR Million		 1290000 1320000 1340000 1360000 1510000
Money Supply M2 1546444.00
EUR Million		 1740000 1780000 1810000 1830000 2010000
Money Supply M3 1553567.00
EUR Million		 1780000 1820000 1850000 1870000 2050000
Banks Balance Sheet 3740972.61
EUR Million		 3980000 4050000 4080000 4110000 4290000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128590.00
EUR Million		 128161 128265 128266 128264 128264
Loans to Private Sector 694968.00
EUR Million		 725000 765000 795000 815000 901000
Private Debt to GDP 168.90
percent		 170 168 168 168 166
Central Bank Balance Sheet 971603.50
EUR Million		 995000 1122000 1152000 1201000 1341000
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2564.00
EUR Million		 5100 6800 1800 4400 5400
Exports 30887.49
EUR Million		 37200 45500 38900 41500 42900
Imports 28323.79
EUR Million		 32100 38700 37100 37100 37500
Current Account 4994.00
EUR Million		 5760 2720 4750 3870 2510
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent		 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1
External Debt 2138556.00
EUR Million		 2210000 2230000 2260000 2290000 2370000
Terms of Trade 99.60
Index Points		 99.09 98.2 98.21 98.21 97.39
Capital Flows 6172.00
EUR Million		 5780 1820 6510 5250 5210
Remittances 141.61
EUR Million		 164 169 165 165 155
Gold Reserves 2451.80
Tonnes		 2452 2452 2452 2452 2452
Terrorism Index 2.75
 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Tourism Revenues 6037.83
EUR Million		 2300 2500 4500 4700 2500
Weapons Sales 660.00
USD Million		 694 695 696 698 694
Crude Oil Production 80.00
BBL/D/1K		 101 101 101 101 103
Foreign Direct Investment 1848.00
EUR Million		 960 -1220 2900 -600 470
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 131.80
percent		 129 126 126 126 124
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP		 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5
Government Budget Value 16.55
EUR Billion		 -6.8 -10 4.6 3.8 -4.9
Government Spending 78678.70
EUR Million		 79401 79646 79859 79938 82043
Government Spending to GDP 48.90
percent		 48 47 47 47 46
Government Revenues 45.50
EUR Billion		 98.2 37.6 49.8 38.2 105
Government Debt 2326545.80
EUR Million		 2398000 2408000 2421000 2439000 2514000
Fiscal Expenditure 28.94
EUR Billion		 105 47.6 45.2 34.4 110
Military Expenditure 28416.60
USD Million		 29368 29755 30143 30531 32354
Asylum Applications 4810.00
persons		 7270 10500 9950 8700 6820
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 104.90
Index Points		 108 108 108 107 108
Services PMI 49.20
Index Points		 52.9 50.8 54.5 54.2 54.4
Manufacturing PMI 49.20
 50.2 47.6 50.7 51.1 54.1
Industrial Production 1.30
percent		 2.5 3.2 3 2.6 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent		 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production -0.40
percent		 3.6 3.2 3 2.8 2.5
Capacity Utilization 77.90
percent		 79.5 79.4 79.4 79.2 78.6
Factory Orders 4.90
percent		 1.1 2.5 0.9 -1 0.7
New Orders 74.90
Index Points		 115 125 121 112 119
Changes in Inventories 157.50
EUR Million		 1155 1211 1141 1151 713
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -43.40
 -12 -22 -8 11 18.1
Car Registrations 146655.00
 121000 217000 199000 177000 129000
Internet Speed 9210.65
KBps		 10038 10132 10161 10228 10561
IP Addresses 13315518.00
IP		 13479313 13478577 13478435 13478492 13478686
Steel Production 2176.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1600 2250 2020 2060 1560
Mining Production -4.70
percent		 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 2
Bankruptcies 2949.00
Companies		 3800 2900 2900 2400 3400
Competitiveness Index 70.77
Points		 71.27 71.27 71.27 71.27 73.77
Competitiveness Rank 31.00
 31 31 31 31 31
Composite Pmi 49.30
 52.5 50.4 53.7 54 54
Ease of Doing Business 51.00
 45 44 44 44 43
Electricity Production 24984.00
Gigawatt-hour		 25800 26200 24200 24300 24500
Corruption Index 50.00
Points		 50 50 50 50 50
Corruption Rank 54.00
 54 54 54 54 54
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 116.60
Index Points		 114 114 114 113 111
Retail Sales MoM -0.80
percent		 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.4
Retail Sales YoY -2.50
percent		 1.5 1.9 2 1.9 2.1
Consumer Spending 242524.60
EUR Million		 243568 245487 246162 246405 251671
Disposable Personal Income 296399.00
EUR Million		 298000 302000 304000 306000 316000
Personal Savings 8.60
percent		 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.2
Bank Lending Rate 1.96
percent		 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.2 2.7
Consumer Credit 100349.28
EUR Million		 111000 115100 120200 125100 145000
Gasoline Prices 1.99
USD/Liter		 2 1.74 1.8 1.53 2
Households Debt To GDP 41.00
percent of GDP		 38.4 36.7 36.7 36.7 34.3
Households Debt To Income 61.12
percent		 57.4 55.2 55.2 55.2 53.2
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output 0.60
percent		 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2
Housing Index 99.40
Index Points		 102 103 104 105 108
Construction Pmi 55.90
 50.9 51.5 52 52.5 52.6
Home Ownership Rate 72.40
percent		 71.8 71.5 71.5 71.5 71
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 43.00
percent		 43 43 43 43 43
Sales Tax Rate 22.00
percent		 22 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 39.49
percent		 39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49
percent		 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 11.32
mm		 100 72.3 76.4 76.4 79.73
Temperature 6.69
celsius		 9.4 5.65 18.36 14.7 13.05



Italy - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook