Italy - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.40 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 8.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 5676.00 4150 5100 6800 1800 5400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 131.80 129 129 126 126 124 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 21639.02
points
20313 20052 19793 19538 18549
Government Bond 10Y 2.89
percent
3.3 3.41 3.53 3.65 4.19
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20
percent
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8
GDP 1934.80
USD Billion
2060 2060 2120 2120 2240
GDP Constant Prices 402976.40
EUR Million
402829 407605 408729 409021 421996
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74445.00
EUR Million
72641 74370 73528 75562 76996
GDP per capita 34877.83
USD
35100 35100 35600 35600 36000
GDP per capita PPP 35220.08
USD
35600 35600 36000 36000 36400
GDP From Agriculture 7057.00
EUR Million
6970 6996 7273 7163 7243
GDP From Construction 16278.00
EUR Million
16244 16507 16501 16522 17090
GDP From Manufacturing 69300.00
EUR Million
69293 70385 70227 70340 72870
GDP From Services 271930.00
EUR Million
271826 274793 275688 276009 284495
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.40
percent
10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 8.8
Employed Persons 23291.80
Thousand
23700 23900 24100 24400 25900
Unemployed Persons 2705.01
Thousand
2690 2650 2620 2600 2500
Part Time Employment 35331.72
Hundreds Person
38200 39000 39400 39800 43000
Full Time Employment 141063.95
Hundreds Person
144700 146000 146700 147200 149000
Employment Rate 58.70
percent
58.1 58.4 58.5 58.6 59
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70
percent
66.1 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent
5.7 5.5 5.2 5 4.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 30.80
percent
30.6 30.2 29.8 29.5 27
Labour Costs 107.00
Index Points
106 107 107 108 112
Wages 2434.00
EUR/Month
2450 2450 2459 2459 2475
Wage Growth 2.00
percent
1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9
Wages in Manufacturing 113.50
Index Points
113 114 114 115 120
Population 60.48
Million
60.48 60.48 60.21 60.21 60.02
Retirement Age Women 65.58
66.58 66.58 66 64 66
Retirement Age Men 66.58
66.58 66.58 67 67 67
Wages High Skilled 2390.00
EUR/Month
2430 2430 2440 2440 2560
Wages Low Skilled 1130.00
EUR/Month
1290 1290 1410 1410 1480
Living Wage Family 1370.00
EUR/Month
1450 1450 1550 1550 1650
Living Wage Individual 855.00
EUR/Month
900 900 1020 1020 1120
Employment Change 0.50
percent
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.80
Index Points
104 104 104 105 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.10
Index Points
103 103 104 104 107
Core Consumer Prices 102.90
Index Points
102 102 103 104 106
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8
GDP Deflator 109.02
Index Points
111 112 112 113 117
Producer Prices 103.10
Index Points
103 104 104 105 108
Producer Prices Change 3.20
percent
2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2
Export Prices 108.10
Index Points
108 109 109 110 112
Import Prices 108.70
Index Points
109 110 111 112 115
Food Inflation 2.20
percent
2.5 2.2 2 2.1 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities 102.70
Index Points
102 102 104 102 107
CPI Transportation 108.90
Index Points
104 105 105 108 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M1 1146957.00
EUR Million
1240000 1290000 1320000 1340000 1510000
Money Supply M2 1516770.00
EUR Million
1650000 1740000 1780000 1810000 2010000
Money Supply M3 1526871.00
EUR Million
1690000 1780000 1820000 1850000 2050000
Banks Balance Sheet 3723450.30
EUR Million
3920000 3980000 4050000 4080000 4290000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124722.30
EUR Million
124579 124563 124565 124565 124565
Loans to Private Sector 705513.00
EUR Million
714000 725000 765000 795000 901000
Private Debt to GDP 168.90
percent
170 170 168 168 166
Central Bank Balance Sheet 963558.70
EUR Million
968000 995000 1122000 1152000 1341000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 5676.00
EUR Million
4150 5100 6800 1800 5400
Exports 42732.72
EUR Million
39500 37200 45500 38900 42900
Imports 37056.49
EUR Million
35350 32100 38700 37100 37500
Current Account 8607.00
EUR Million
4150 5760 2720 4750 2510
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent
2 2 1.5 1.5 1.1
External Debt 2177794.00
EUR Million
2190000 2210000 2230000 2260000 2370000
Terms of Trade 99.40
Index Points
99.08 99.09 98.2 98.21 97.39
Capital Flows 10388.00
EUR Million
5751 5780 1820 6510 5210
Remittances 154.33
EUR Million
166 164 169 165 155
Gold Reserves 2451.80
Tonnes
2452 2452 2452 2452 2452
Terrorism Index 2.75
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Tourism Revenues 5494.80
EUR Million
4500 2300 2500 4500 2500
Weapons Sales 660.00
USD Million
704 694 695 696 694
Crude Oil Production 93.00
BBL/D/1K
100 101 101 101 103
Foreign Direct Investment 817.00
EUR Million
-400 960 -1220 2900 470
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 131.80
percent
129 129 126 126 124
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5
Government Budget Value 12.12
EUR Billion
2.5 -6.8 -10 4.6 -4.9
Government Spending 78678.70
EUR Million
79182 79873 79882 79859 82693
Government Spending to GDP 48.90
percent
48 48 47 47 46
Government Revenues 56.83
EUR Billion
34.7 98.2 37.6 49.8 105
Government Debt 2341685.80
EUR Million
2378000 2398000 2408000 2421000 2514000
Fiscal Expenditure 44.71
EUR Billion
32.2 105 47.6 45.2 110
Military Expenditure 28416.60
USD Million
29214 29368 29755 30143 32354
Asylum Applications 4810.00
persons
9500 7270 10500 9950 6820
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 104.80
Index Points
105 108 108 108 108
Services PMI 52.60
Index Points
52.5 52.9 50.8 54.5 54.4
Manufacturing PMI 50.10
51.2 52.7 50.5 53.7 54.1
Industrial Production -1.30
percent
2.1 2.5 3.2 3 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -1.80
percent
0.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2
Manufacturing Production -1.20
percent
3.8 3.6 3.2 3 2.5
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
79 79.5 79.4 79.4 78.6
Factory Orders -2.30
percent
-0.8 1.1 2.5 0.9 0.7
New Orders 119.30
Index Points
111 115 125 121 119
Changes in Inventories 157.50
EUR Million
367 1155 1211 1141 713
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -34.70
19.1 -12 -22 -8 18.1
Car Registrations 91551.00
171000 121000 217000 199000 129000
Internet Speed 9210.65
KBps
9860 10038 10132 10161 10561
IP Addresses 13315518.00
IP
13481285 13479313 13478577 13478435 13478686
Steel Production 2210.00
Thousand Tonnes
2050 1600 2250 2020 1560
Mining Production 2.80
percent
5.2 4.4 3.6 2.9 2
Bankruptcies 2949.00
Companies
2500 3800 2900 2900 3400
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.54 4.54 4.59 4.59 4.64
Competitiveness Rank 43.00
43 43 42 42 41
Composite Pmi 51.70
52 52.5 50.4 53.7 54
Ease of Doing Business 46.00
45 45 44 44 43
Electricity Production 24570.00
Gigawatt-hour
24100 25800 26200 24200 24500
Corruption Index 50.00
Points
51 51 52 52 53
Corruption Rank 54.00
53 53 52 52 51
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 115.20
Index Points
114 114 114 114 111
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.7 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY -0.60
percent
1.2 1.5 1.9 2 2.1
Consumer Spending 242524.60
EUR Million
242891 245015 246214 246162 253665
Disposable Personal Income 292224.00
EUR Million
296000 298000 302000 304000 316000
Personal Savings 7.60
percent
6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.2
Bank Lending Rate 1.92
percent
1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 2.67
Consumer Credit 100242.40
EUR Million
105400 111000 115100 120200 145000
Gasoline Prices 2.02
USD/Liter
2.06 1.94 1.84 1.73 1.37
Households Debt To Gdp 41.00
percent of GDP
38.4 38.4 36.7 36.7 34.3
Households Debt To Income 61.14
percent
57.4 57.4 55.2 55.2 53.2
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 2.60
percent
3.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
Housing Index 98.70
Index Points
102 102 103 104 108
Construction Pmi 53.50
51 50.9 51.5 52 52.6
Home Ownership Rate 72.40
percent
71.8 71.8 71.5 71.5 71
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 43.00
percent
43 43 43 43 43
Sales Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 39.49
percent
39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49
percent
9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 11.32
mm
66.53 100 72.3 76.4 79.73
Temperature 6.69
celsius
20.8 9.4 5.65 18.36 13.05