The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in December 2019 from 49.7 in the prior month. The latest reading signalled the sixth straight month of deterioration in business conditions, the longest downturn since the second half of 2011 through to early 2012. New orders dropped, following a two-month spell of marginal growth, amid subdued demand from the UK. New export orders declined for the sixth straight month, and the second-fastest rate in over ten years. Output also fell further, as firms tried to control rising stock levels. Meantime, employment shrank for second month in a row, though marginally. On the price front, purchase price continued to rise, extending the current sequence of increases to 44 months. However, output price inflation was little-changed from November. Lastly, confidence improved to a six-month high, linked to new product launches, improving US and European demand and reduced Brexit uncertainty. Manufacturing PMI in Ireland averaged 53.53 from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 59.10 in December of 2017 and a record low of 48.20 in January of 2012. source: Markit Economics

Manufacturing PMI in Ireland is expected to be 51.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Ireland to stand at 54.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ireland Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Ireland Manufacturing PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
49.50 49.70 59.10 48.20 2011 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Irish Manufacturing Activity Returns to Contraction
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in November 2019 from 50.7 in the previous month. The latest reading signalled the fifth deterioration in business conditions in the past six months as a reduction in output led to workforce numbers declining for the first time since September 2016. On the demand front, inflows of total new business increased for the second month running, albeit at a marginal pace. On the other hand, export sales decreased with the rate of contraction quickening amid weaker demand from US and UK customers. Meanwhile, confidence improved to a five-month high, but remained historically weak as Brexit uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

Irish Factory Activity Grows for First Time in 5 Months
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in October 2019 from 48.7 in September. This marked the first increase in factory activity since May, as output expanded the most since April, new orders expanded for the first time in six months, and the rate of job creation was the fastest since June. Meanwhile, buying activity rose for the first time since April, in line with the rise in pre-production inventories; and stocks of finished goods went up for the fifth month running, with some respondents indicated that they had built up their post-production inventories in order to guard against any potential supply disruptions after Brexit. On the price front, average selling prices increased after three months of decline and at the fastest pace since May, while input cost rose further. Lastly, sentiment improved slightly from September's record low.

Irish Manufacturing Shrinks for 4th Month
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI was at 48.7 in September 2019, little-changed from 48.6 in August. This was the fourth straight month of contraction in factory activity, amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Output fell for the third month running, and new orders shrank the most since January 2012, with export sales dropping at the steepest rate since August 2009 on the back of weaker sales to the UK. At the same time, employment was unchanged, the first time in three years that it had failed to rise, while backlogs of works declined for the 13th month. Meantime, input purchases fell for the fifth consecutive month, though the rate of contraction was the weakest since May. On the price front, input price inflation eased to a 38-month low. Concurrently, firms sought to reduce their selling prices for the third straight month in order to remain competitive and stimulate customer orders. Lastly, sentiment sank to the lowest ever reading in over seven years of data collection.

Ireland Manufacturing PMI Falls to Near 6-1/2-Year Low
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.6 in August 2019 from 48.7 in July. This was the third straight month of contraction in factory activity and the steepest since April 2013, amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Output, new orders and export sales all declined. Also, manufacturers decreased their purchasing activity at the fastest rate since September 2011. Meantime, employment grew marginally, while backlogs of works dropped for the twelve straight month. On the price front, input cost inflation was slightly faster than July's three-year low on the back of greater raw material prices. Meanwhile, selling prices fell for the second month running, as firms try to remain competitive and stimulate additional customer orders. Finally, sentiment hit its lowest in over three years.

Ireland Manufacturing PMI Dips to 75-Month Low
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in July 2019 from 49.8 in June. It was the second straight contraction and the lowest print since April 2013 amid a slowdown in global trade and Brexit uncertainties, with total new orders dropping at the fastest rate in over six years. Both domestic and external demand weakened. Export sales declined at the sharpest pace since August 2009 and backlogs increased to a new series record. On the price front, rising raw material prices, particularly for steel, fuelled costs. Looking ahead, optimism regarding future output weakened to a three-year low, amid reports of ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

Irish Manufacturing Shrinks for First Time Since May 2013
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in June 2019 from 50.4 in May. This was the first contraction in factory activity since May 2013 amid a slowdown in global trade and Brexit uncertainties, with total new orders dropping at the fastest rate since January 2012. In addition, for the second month in a row, there was a significant drop in the backlog of orders. At the same time, stocks of finished goods rose sharply, with the rate of accumulation was the second-fastest in the over 21-year series history. Meanwhile, output rose following May's fall, but the rate was slower than its long-run average. Also, export orders grew, reversing May's first drop since August 2016; while employment growth was very modest at just above May’s 32-month low. On the price front, input cost inflation went up a bit from May's 34 month-low, while selling prices increased marginally. Finally, sentiment hit a 34-month low, though still positive.

Ireland Manufacturing PMI
The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI Ireland measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 258 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Ireland Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence -26.00 1.00 50.00 -26.00 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.50 49.70 59.10 48.20 points [+]
Services PMI 55.90 53.70 64.00 48.30 points [+]
Industrial Production -2.60 -3.30 60.00 -19.20 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -4.00 -5.20 32.90 -24.00 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -2.90 -3.80 85.90 -20.10 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 260.00 -1244.00 3584.00 -1244.00 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 729.00 1676.00 32961.00 474.00 [+]
Internet Speed 15614.31 15285.23 16960.56 2269.39 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 1663376.00 1600356.00 1719799.00 775588.00 IP [+]
Competitiveness Index 75.12 75.68 75.96 4.74 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 24.00 23.00 29.00 22.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 24.00 23.00 24.00 7.00 [+]
Electricity Production 2458.00 2194.00 2820.00 1747.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 74.00 85.70 69.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 19.00 25.00 11.00 [+]