The Ulster Bank Construction PMI jumped to 52.0 in December 2019 from 48.2 in the previous month. This was the first increase in construction output since August, amid reduced Brexit uncertainty. Housing activity rebounded following a first decline in almost 6-1/2 years in November (51.8 vs 47.7) and commercial projects grew faster (53.6 vs 51.2). In addition, civil engineering activity fell at softer rate, which was the weakest since last May (43.1 vs 36.4). At the same time, new orders returned to growth following declines in the previous two months; employment continued to grew solidly for the 76th straight month and input buying increased sharply. On the price front, input cost inflation slowed to a three-month low, despite marked overall, while selling prices went up further amid higher cost of oil, insulation and steel. Finally, sentiment hit a six-month high, supported by new projects in the coming months and lower uncertainty around Brexit. Construction Pmi in Ireland averaged 57.61 points from 2013 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 68.80 points in February of 2016 and a record low of 43.40 points in June of 2013. source: Markit Economics

Construction Pmi in Ireland is expected to be 50.20 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Construction Pmi in Ireland to stand at 52.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ireland Ulster Bank Construction PMI is projected to trend around 52.90 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Ireland Ulster Bank Construction PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
52.00 48.20 68.80 43.40 2013 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Irish Construction Shrinks at Slower Pace
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI rose to 48.2 in November 2019 from a near 6-1/2-year low of 46.2 in the previous month, pointing to the third straight month of contraction, as housing activity fell for the first time since June 2013 (47.7 vs 51.3) and civil engineering output shrank for the 15th month and at the fastest pace in almost 6-1/2 years (36.4 vs 41.9). Meanwhile, commercial activity increased for the first time in three months (51.2 vs 46.9 in October). At the same time, new orders fell for the second month in a row on the back of Brexit uncertainty, and buying levels dropped for the second time in the past three months. Meanwhile, employment growth was at four-month high. On the price front, input cost inflation rose to a seven-month high, amid widespread reports of greater raw material prices such as steel, insulation and fuel. Finally, sentiment was little-changed from October's three-month high.

Irish Construction Output Falls the Most since 2013
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI fell to 46.2 in October 2019 from 48.3 in September, pointing to the steepest monthly decline in activity since June 2013, amid concerns about Brexit impacts. Commercial building dropped the most in nearly 6-1/2 years (46.9 vs 47.6); and civil engineering works declined for the 14th straight month, and at a sharper pace than in September (41.9 vs 42.1). At the same time, housing construction rose at a slower rate (51.3 vs 52.9). Overall new order decreased for the first time since June 2013, while the rate of job creation matched the almost six-year low recorded in September. On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated to a three-month high, on the back of higher raw material prices. Finally, optimism picked up in October as positive sentiment was linked to forecasts of improving economic conditions and new capital investment.

Irish Construction Activity Falls for First Time in 6 Years
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI plunged to 48.3 in September 2019 from 53.7 in August. This was the first contraction in Irish construction output since August 2013, amid negative impact of Brexit uncertainty. Commercial building fell for the first time in over six years (47.6 vs 55.1 in August) and civil engineering work declined for the 13th straight month (42.1 vs 42.5), while residential construction grew much softer (52.9 vs 58.4). Meantime, new order growth eased for the third month running and was the slowest in over six years. Also, employment growth hit the lowest in near six years. At the same time, buying activity fell for the first time since February 2014. On the price front, the rate of input price inflation was little changed from August's 64-month low. Nonetheless, cost burdens rose at a sharp pace amid reports of greater prices paid for copper, steel and insulation. Finally, sentiment picked up slightly from August's near nine-year low.

Ireland Ulster Bank Construction PMI Rises to 3-Month High
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI rose to a three-month high of 53.7 in August 2019 from 51.4 in the previous month. Housing activity growth accelerated substantially (58.4 vs 55.9 in July), with commercial activity advancing further (55.1 vs 54.7). Meanwhile, work on civil engineering projects fell for the twelfth straight month, but at a softer pace (42.5 vs 40.5). Meanwhile, new orders rose the least since February 2015, employment expanded the least since October 2013, and input buying was the weakest in 5-1/2 years. On the price front, input price inflation went up the least in 64 months, but remained solid amid reports of higher prices charged by suppliers for items such as insulation. Finally, business sentiment dipped to the lowest since November 2010, amid ongoing concerns over Brexit uncertainty.

Irish Construction Output Growth at 6-Year Low
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI fell to 51.4 in July 2019 from 53.1 in the previous month, pointing to the weakest pace of expansion in the construction sector since August 2013. Housing activity growth slowed to a six-month low (55.9 vs 58.4 in June), while civil engineering works declined at the fastest rate since November last year (40.5 vs 42.3). Meantime, commercial activity increased solidly, with growth quickening to the strongest in four months (54.7 vs 52.8). Overall new order growth eased to the slowest since February 2015, employment rose the least since March 2015 and purchasing activity expansion was the weakest in the current 65-month sequence of growth. On the price front, input price inflation rose to the highest since April, due to greater raw material prices, notably for steel and insulation. Finally, business sentiment dipped to 74-month low amid ongoing concerns over Brexit.

Irish Construction PMI at 8-Month Low
The Ulster Bank Construction PMI fell to 53.1 in June 2019, the lowest since October of 2018, from 54.9 in the previous month. Commercial activity expanded at the second slowest rate in the current 71-month sequence of growth (52.8 vs 53.1 in May), while civil engineering construction declined for the tenth straight month and at the steepest pace since November 2018. (42.3 vs 46.3). Meantime, housing activity growth inched a bit higher (58.4 vs 58.3). At the same time, new order growth was little-changed from May's five-month low, while employment rose for the 70th straight month and quickened from May's 50-month low. On the price front, input price inflation picked up slightly from May's 32-month low, amid higher material costs, notably for steel and insulation. Finally, sentiment dipped to a thee-month low.

Ireland Ulster Bank Construction PMI
The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® is a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity in Ireland. Data are collected at mid-month, asking respondents to compare a variety of business conditions with the situation one month ago. A reading of below 50.0 indicates that the economy is generally declining, above 50.0 that it is generally expanding and exactly 50.0 indicates no change on the level recorded the previous month.

Ireland Housing Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Housing Index 109.00 108.89 131.00 58.70 points [+]
New Home Sales 868.00 812.00 879.00 159.00 Units [+]
Building Permits 1922.00 1774.00 7563.00 751.00 [+]
Construction Output 3.10 5.30 36.10 -38.60 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 52.00 48.20 68.80 43.40 points [+]
Existing Home Sales 3123.00 3616.00 3671.00 610.00 Units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 69.50 69.80 81.80 68.60 percent [+]