Retail sales in Indonesia increased by 7.7 percent year-on-year in May 2019, accelerating from a 6.7 percent growth in the previous month, mainly due to the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which began on May 5 this year. Sales rose for: clothing (43.9 percent vs 22.8 percent in April); food, beverages and tobacco (6.4 percent vs 5.8 percent); and fuel (0.8 percent vs -0.1 percent). Meantime, sales growth slowed for cultural and recreational goods (1 percent vs 3.6 percent); motor vehicles and parts (25.4 percent vs 25.8 percent); and household equipment (7.0 percent vs 10.5 percent). On the other hand, sales of communications equipment and information continued to fall (-9.6 percent vs -7.9 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.66 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 6.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.