Retail sales in Indonesia rose by 10.1 percent year-on-year in March 2019, accelerating from a 9.1 percent growth in the previous month. This was the steepest increase in retail trade since December 2016 ahead of the fasting month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr celebration. Sales growth accelerated for: clothing (41.2 percent vs 33.7 percent in February); motor vehicles and parts (20.7 percent vs 14.0 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (10.9 percent vs 10.8 percent); and household equipment (8.2 percent vs 6.2 percent). In addition, sales of communications equipment and information fell much softer (-6.3 percent vs -8.7 percent). Meanwhile, sales rose at a slower rate for both fuel (3.9 percent vs 11.5 percent); and cultural goods (14.5 percent vs 26.5 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.69 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.