Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.2% in 2018, the same as in 2017. Investment is projected to increase further, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, and improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies. At the same time, private consumption is seen rising amid moderate inflation and a robust labor market. Meanwhile, net exports may drag on growth as import-intensive investment remains robust, also due to the ongoing streamlining of import processes. Inflation is seen at 3.5% on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure amid global uncertainty, including the Fed’s decision to raise its reference rate and intensifying trade disputes. The central bank is seen tightening further this year, depending on how domestic and global developments play out and how aggressive is the normalization of US monetary policy. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.09 -1.2 -0.3 3.4 2.6 -0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.34 5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 3.16 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 5.75 6 6 6 6.5 5.75 percent
Balance of Trade 227.10 1700 -600 300 1500 300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.70 29.3 30.9 30.9 30.9 32.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 14810.00
15093 15145 15198 15252 15467
Stock Market 5807.79
points
5870 5796 5723 5650 5371
Government Bond 10Y 8.26
percent
8.12 8.22 8.31 8.41 8.82
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.09
percent
-1.2 -0.3 3.4 2.6 -0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.17
percent
5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.3
GDP 1015.54
USD Billion
1070 1126 1126 1126 1150
GDP Constant Prices 2684193.60
IDR Billion
2639396 2626029 2731281 2739092 2921027
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 880777.29
IDR Billion
907323 862440 869143 871628 1004137
GDP per capita 4130.66
USD
4251 4332 4332 4332 4567
GDP per capita PPP 11188.74
USD
11406 11733 11733 11733 12037
GDP From Agriculture 82332.00
IDR Billion
46079 88891 88231 88484 50996
GDP From Construction 265600.00
IDR Billion
276867 263880 265862 279411 306410
GDP From Manufacturing 559400.00
IDR Billion
558020 561392 572849 588489 617562
GDP From Mining 200700.00
IDR Billion
206251 204828 208990 211136 228259
GDP From Services 47654.30
IDR Billion
46830 47308 48811 48950 51826
GDP From Utilities 36766.40
IDR Billion
36735 35891 37386 37493 40655
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.34
percent
5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3
Employed Persons 127067835.00
127067835 128000000 128000000 128000000 129000000
Unemployed Persons 6871264.00
6871264 6775000 6775000 6775000 6610000
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent
69.2 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.1
Minimum Wages 3.60
IDR Million/Month
3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1
Wages in Manufacturing 2478868.00
IDR/Month
2630000 2740000 2740000 2850000 3100000
Population 261.90
Million
264 266 266 266 271
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Living Wage Family 2954800.00
IDR/Month
3000000 3150000 3150000 3150000 3230000
Living Wage Individual 1456700.00
IDR/Month
1740000 1820000 1820000 1820000 1890000
Wages Low Skilled 3427900.00
IDR/Month
3200000 3270000 3270000 3270000 3330000
Wages High Skilled 5017000.00
IDR/Month
5100000 5240000 5240000 5240000 5310000
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.16
percent
3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28
percent
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 134.20
Index Points
136 138 139 139 147
Core Consumer Prices 126.03
Index Points
126 127 128 129 135
Core Inflation Rate 2.94
percent
2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.5
GDP Deflator 142.90
Index Points
143 144 145 146 151
Producer Prices 167.20
Index Points
170 174 176 178 189
Export Prices 171.40
Index Points
170 171 173 175 182
Import Prices 150.36
Index Points
152 153 155 156 162
Food Inflation 4.36
percent
4.6 4 3.5 3.8 4
Producer Prices Change 7.30
percent
6.9 7.1 6.8 6.5 5
CPI Housing Utilities 130.55
Index Points
133 133 134 135 143
CPI Transportation 131.36
Index Points
146 146 137 137 158
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 5.75
percent
6 6 6 6.5 5.75
Interbank Rate 7.53
percent
7.51 7.51 7.51 8.01 7.26
Money Supply M0 590804.87
IDR Billion
620000 634000 645000 582000 650000
Money Supply M1 1411672.60
IDR Billion
1450000 1462000 1436000 1452000 1470000
Money Supply M2 5606300.00
IDR Billion
5720000 5830000 5910000 5990000 6270000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 115200.00
USD Million
116300 115900 115400 115800 172000
Loans to Private Sector 4486735.00
IDR Billion
4510000 4620000 4690000 4750000 4950000
Deposit Interest Rate 5.00
percent
5.25 5.25 5.25 5.75 5
Lending Rate 6.50
percent
6.75 6.75 6.75 7.25 6.5
Loan Growth 12.75
percent
6.8 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.9
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 227.10
USD Million
1700 -600 300 1500 300
Exports 14828.60
USD Million
15600 14500 14000 14700 16500
Imports 14601.50
USD Million
13900 15100 13700 13200 16200
Current Account -8846.10
USD Million
-1400 -5660 -5000 -3900 -3100
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2
External Debt 355740.40
USD Million
380000 410000 410000 410000 420000
Terms of Trade 113.97
Index Points
112 112 112 113 112
Foreign Direct Investment 89.10
IDR Trillion
94.7 94.2 93.8 94.5 98.8
Remittances 2809.00
USD Million
2530 2490 2450 2510 2610
Tourist Arrivals 1351675.00
1510000 1490000 1470000 1520000 1580000
Gold Reserves 80.60
Tonnes
80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6
Crude Oil Production 787.00
BBL/D/1K
787 791 794 797 805
Terrorism Index 4.55
4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1
Weapons Sales 102.00
USD Million
99 97 97 97 95
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.70
percent
29.3 30.9 30.9 30.9 32.2
Government Budget -2.50
percent of GDP
-2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3
Government Budget Value -347356.70
IDR Billion
-319636 -390000 -390000 -390000 -297086
Government Spending 205839.31
IDR Billion
285134 153539 203104 203684 315559
Government Revenues 1656890.70
IDR Billion
1670000 1700000 1700000 1700000 1720000
Fiscal Expenditure 2004247.20
IDR Billion
2040000 2090000 2090000 2090000 2130000
Military Expenditure 7910.80
USD Million
7930 7950 7950 7950 7980
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 108.05
Index Points
107 107 106 106 108
Manufacturing PMI 50.50
50.5 51 51.2 50.9 51.5
Industrial Production 9.00
percent
4.7 5.3 6 5.7 6.6
Industrial Production Mom 12.92
percent
2.4 1.5 -0.6 0.7 1.8
Capacity Utilization 75.33
percent
77.7 78.1 78.5 78.7 79.8
Changes in Inventories 45518.35
IDR Billion
-26800 61500 48200 25400 -29600
Car Registrations 93133.00
98000 102000 75000 97000 109000
Internet Speed 7203.29
KBps
7700 8300 8300 8300 8900
IP Addresses 2826875.00
IP
2880000 2910000 2930000 2950000 2990000
Competitiveness Index 64.94
Points
65.44 65.44 65.44 65.44 67.94
Competitiveness Rank 45.00
45 45 45 45 45
Copper Production 218520.00
Tonnes
280000 274000 269000 266000 268000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 96.00
96 96 96 96 96
Ease of Doing Business 73.00
70 68 68 68 65
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 119.20
Index Points
123 123 122 122 128
Retail Sales MoM -1.60
percent
5.1 3.6 6.4 -0.4 3.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.80
percent
4.3 3.9 3.6 2.8 5.1
Consumer Spending 1440841.50
IDR Billion
1443537 1443588 1463003 1467187 1597567
Consumer Credit 2296057.00
IDR Billion
2290000 2310000 2330000 2350000 2460000
Households Debt To GDP 17.00
percent of GDP
16.9 16.8 16.8 16.8 17
Gasoline Prices 0.42
USD/Liter
0.56 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.6
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 207.69
Index Points
209 210 210 212 217
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 9.74
percent
9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.74
percent
5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 26.41
celsius
25.74 25.77 26.35 26.35 26.32
Precipitation 297.99
mm
261 278 243 243 244



Indonesia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook