Indonesia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Indonesia's economy is expected to advance 5.2% in 2018, the same as in 2017. Investment is projected to increase further, due to the ongoing recovery in commodity prices, and improved investor confidence after the country was upgraded to the investment grade by all the major agencies. At the same time, private consumption is seen rising amid moderate inflation and a robust labor market. Meanwhile, net exports may drag on growth as import-intensive investment remains robust, also due to the ongoing streamlining of import processes. Inflation is seen at 3.5% on the assumptions that there is no extreme weather disrupting food production. The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure amid global uncertainty, including the Fed’s decision to raise its reference rate and intensifying trade disputes. The central bank is seen tightening further this year, depending on how domestic and global developments play out and how aggressive is the normalization of US monetary policy. This page has economic forecasts for Indonesia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Indonesia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.21 3.5 -1.2 -0.3 3.4 -0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.13 5 5 4.9 4.9 5.3 percent
Inflation Rate 3.20 3.5 3.6 3.9 4 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 5.50 5.75 6 6 5.75 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade -1021.40 300 1700 -600 300 300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.70 29.3 29.3 30.9 30.9 32.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 14915.00
14701 14753 14804 14857 15066
Stock Market 5874.30
points
5994 5924 5855 5786 5520
Government Bond 10Y 8.23
percent
8.05 8.15 8.25 8.35 8.76
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.21
percent
3.5 -1.2 -0.3 3.4 -0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.27
percent
5.1 5.2 5 4.9 5.1
GDP 1015.54
USD Billion
1070 1070 1126 1126 1150
GDP Constant Prices 2603700.00
IDR Billion
2617298 2639396 2623530 2731281 2918253
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 828544.11
IDR Billion
844497 907323 861619 869143 1003183
GDP per capita 4130.66
USD
4251 4251 4332 4332 4567
GDP per capita PPP 11188.74
USD
11406 11406 11733 11733 12037
GDP From Agriculture 84110.00
IDR Billion
81993 46079 88806 88231 50947
GDP From Construction 253443.60
IDR Billion
257504 276867 263629 265862 306119
GDP From Manufacturing 546090.80
IDR Billion
549911 558020 560858 572849 616975
GDP From Mining 199227.90
IDR Billion
200465 206251 204634 208990 228042
GDP From Services 46530.70
IDR Billion
44971 46830 47263 48811 51777
GDP From Utilities 35639.30
IDR Billion
34992 36735 35857 37386 40616
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.13
percent
5 5 4.9 4.9 5.3
Employed Persons 127067835.00
127067835 127067835 128000000 128000000 129000000
Unemployed Persons 6871264.00
6871264 6871264 6775000 6775000 6610000
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent
69.2 69.2 69.3 69.3 69.1
Minimum Wages 3.60
IDR Million/Month
3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.1
Wages in Manufacturing 2478868.00
IDR/Month
2630000 2630000 2740000 2740000 3100000
Population 261.90
Million
264 264 266 266 271
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Living Wage Family 2869600.00
IDR/Month
3000000 3000000 3150000 3150000 3230000
Living Wage Individual 1678100.00
IDR/Month
1740000 1740000 1820000 1820000 1890000
Wages Low Skilled 3080800.00
IDR/Month
3200000 3200000 3270000 3270000 3330000
Wages High Skilled 4951000.00
IDR/Month
5100000 5100000 5240000 5240000 5310000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20
percent
3.5 3.6 3.9 4 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom -0.05
percent
0.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 134.07
Index Points
135 136 138 139 147
Core Consumer Prices 125.32
Index Points
126 126 127 128 135
Core Inflation Rate 2.90
percent
3 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.5
GDP Deflator 141.48
Index Points
143 143 144 145 151
Producer Prices 166.01
Index Points
166 170 174 176 189
Export Prices 166.00
Index Points
168 170 171 173 182
Import Prices 148.64
Index Points
150 152 153 155 162
Food Inflation 4.90
percent
4.5 4.6 4 3.5 4
Producer Prices Change 6.60
percent
6.8 6.9 7.1 6.8 5
CPI Housing Utilities 129.74
Index Points
132 133 134 134 143
CPI Transportation 131.08
Index Points
144 146 146 137 158
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 5.50
percent
5.75 6 6 5.75 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.13
percent
7.38 7.63 7.63 7.38 7.13
Money Supply M0 583200.00
IDR Billion
595000 620000 634000 645000 650000
Money Supply M1 1383396.80
IDR Billion
1410000 1450000 1462000 1436000 1470000
Money Supply M2 5505634.50
IDR Billion
5600000 5720000 5830000 5910000 6270000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 117900.00
USD Million
117500 116300 115900 115400 172000
Loans to Private Sector 4391869.00
IDR Billion
4400000 4510000 4620000 4690000 4950000
Deposit Interest Rate 4.75
percent
5 5.25 5.25 5 4.75
Lending Rate 6.25
percent
6.5 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.25
Loan Growth 11.34
percent
11.1 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.9
Cash Reserve Ratio 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1021.40
USD Million
300 1700 -600 300 300
Exports 15818.10
USD Million
13900 15600 14500 14000 16500
Imports 16839.50
USD Million
13600 13900 15100 13700 16200
Current Account -8028.00
USD Million
-5000 -1400 -5660 -5000 -3100
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2
External Debt 352246.73
USD Million
380000 380000 410000 410000 420000
Terms of Trade 111.71
Index Points
112 112 112 112 112
Foreign Direct Investment 95.70
IDR Trillion
95 94.7 94.2 93.8 98.8
Remittances 2636.30
USD Million
2600 2530 2490 2450 2610
Tourist Arrivals 1536489.00
1550000 1510000 1490000 1470000 1580000
Gold Reserves 80.60
Tonnes
80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6
Crude Oil Production 779.00
BBL/D/1K
782 787 791 794 805
Terrorism Index 4.55
4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1
Weapons Sales 102.00
USD Million
99 99 97 97 95
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.70
percent
29.3 29.3 30.9 30.9 32.2
Government Budget -2.50
percent of GDP
-2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3
Government Budget Value -347356.70
IDR Billion
-370000 -370000 -390000 -390000 -410000
Government Spending 193616.31
IDR Billion
198620 285134 153393 203104 315259
Government Revenues 1656890.70
IDR Billion
1670000 1670000 1700000 1700000 1720000
Fiscal Expenditure 2004247.20
IDR Billion
2040000 2040000 2090000 2090000 2130000
Military Expenditure 7910.80
USD Million
7930 7930 7950 7950 7980
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 112.82
Index Points
112 109 107 106 108
Manufacturing PMI 51.90
51.2 50.5 51 51.2 51.5
Industrial Production 1.00
percent
3.4 4.7 5.3 6 6.6
Industrial Production Mom -8.13
percent
3.7 2.4 1.5 -0.6 1.8
Capacity Utilization 78.40
percent
77.2 77.7 78.1 78.5 79.8
Changes in Inventories 81439.27
IDR Billion
48000 -26800 61500 48200 -296000
Car Registrations 102197.00
105000 98000 102000 75000 109000
Internet Speed 7203.29
KBps
7700 7700 8300 8300 8900
IP Addresses 2826875.00
IP
2850000 2880000 2910000 2930000 2990000
Competitiveness Index 4.68
Points
4.68 4.68 4.73 4.73 4.9
Competitiveness Rank 36.00
36 36 35 35 33
Copper Production 197122.00
Tonnes
215000 280000 274000 269000 268000
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
36 36 35 35 30
Corruption Rank 96.00
97 97 98 98 100
Ease of Doing Business 72.00
70 70 68 68 65
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 121.60
Index Points
122 123 123 122 128
Retail Sales MoM -9.20
percent
-0.6 5.1 3.6 6.4 3.4
Retail Sales YoY 2.90
percent
3.5 4.3 3.9 3.6 5.1
Consumer Spending 1394664.40
IDR Billion
1407096 1443537 1442214 1463003 1596050
Consumer Credit 2253510.00
IDR Billion
2270000 2290000 2310000 2330000 2460000
Households Debt To Gdp 17.00
percent of GDP
16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 17
Gasoline Prices 0.44
USD/Liter
0.44 0.41 0.39 0.37 0.29
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 206.89
Index Points
208 209 210 210 217
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 9.74
percent
9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74 9.74
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.74
percent
5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 26.41
celsius
25.58 25.74 25.77 26.35 26.32
Precipitation 297.99
mm
176 261 278 243 244