Consumer price inflation in India jumped to 7.35% in December of 2019 from 5.54% in November and well above market expectations of 6.2%. The inflation accelerated for the fifth straight month, remaining the highest rate since July of 2016. Main upward pressure came from cost of food and beverages (12.16%), namely cereals (4.36%), milk (4.22%), vegetables (60.5%), fruits (4.55%) and pulses (15.44%). The food alone rate jumped to 14.12%, the highest since November of 2013. Other increases were also seen for miscellaneous (4.09%), fuel and light (0.7%), clothing and footwear (1.5%), housing (4.3%) and pan, tobacco and intoxicants (3.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.2%, the highest rate since July of 2017. The Reserve Bank of India's targets inflation at 4%. The recent spike in inflation lowered chances of another rate cut in February. Inflation Rate in India averaged 5.99 percent from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.17 percent in November of 2013 and a record low of 1.54 percent in June of 2017. source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

Inflation Rate in India is expected to be 5.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in India to stand at 5.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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India Inflation Rate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
7.35 5.54 12.17 1.54 2012 - 2019 percent Monthly
2012=100



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-14 12:00 PM Sep 3.99% 3.28% 3.7% 3.5%
2019-11-13 12:00 PM Oct 4.62% 3.99% 4.25% 4.1%
2019-12-12 12:00 PM Nov 5.54% 4.62% 5.26% 5.1%
2020-01-13 12:00 PM Dec 7.35% 5.54% 6.2% 6.1%
2020-02-12 12:00 PM Jan 7.35% 7.5%


News Stream
2019-12-12
India November Inflation Rate Rises to Over 3-Year High
India's retail price inflation rate increased to 5.54 percent year-on-year in November 2019 from 4.62 in the previous month and compared with market expectations of 5.26 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2016, above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent, boosted by food prices.

2019-11-13
India Inflation Rate Jumps to 1-1/2-Year High
India's retail price inflation rate climbed to 4.62 percent year-on-year in October 2019, the highest in over a year, from the previous month's 3.99 percent and above market expectations of 4.25 percent. Inflation rose above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the first time since July 2018, following recent cuts in interest rates.

2019-10-14
India September Inflation Rate Rises to 14-Month High
India's retail price inflation rate rose to 3.99 percent year-on-year in September 2019 from an upwardly revised 3.28 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 3.7 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since July last year, almost touching the central bank’s medium-term target of 4 percent, as food prices rose to an over 3-year high. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.55 percent.

2019-09-12
India Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
India's annual retail price inflation rate edged up to a 10 month high of 3.21 percent in August 2019 from the previous month's 3.15 percent and missing market expectations of 3.30 percent. Inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the 13th consecutive month, despite recent cuts in interest rates.

2019-08-13
India Inflation Rate Remains Stable
India's retail price inflation rate stood at 3.15 percent year-on-year in July 2019, little-changed from the previous month's 3.18 percent and slightly below market expectations of 3.20 percent. Inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the twelfth consecutive month, despite recent interest rate cuts.

2019-07-12
India Inflation Rate Rises to 8-Month High
India's retail price inflation rate rose to 3.18 percent year-on-year in June 2019, the highest since last October, from 3.05 percent in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 3.20 percent. Food prices were the biggest contributor to the price increase. Still, inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the eleventh consecutive month.


India Inflation Rate
In 2013, the consumer price index replaced the wholesale price index (WPI) as a main measure of inflation. In India, the most important category in the consumer price index is Food and beverages (45.86 percent of total weight), of which Cereals and products (9.67 percent), Milk and products (6.61 percent), Vegetables (6.04 percent), Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc. (5.55 percent), Meat and fish (3.61 percent), and Oils and fats (3.56 percent). Miscellaneous accounts for 28.32 percent, of which Transport and communication (8.59 percent), health (5.89 percent), and education (4.46 percent). Housing accounts for 10.07 percent; Fuel and light for 6.84 percent; Clothing and footwear for 6.53 percent; and Pan, tobacco and intoxicants for 2.38 percent. Consumer price changes in India can be very volatile due to dependence on energy imports, the uncertain impact of monsoon rains on its large farm sector, difficulties transporting food items to market because of its poor roads and infrastructure and high fiscal deficit.

India Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 7.35 5.54 12.17 1.54 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 150.40 148.60 150.40 86.81 points [+]
GDP Deflator 134.80 129.70 146.50 100.00 points [+]
Producer Prices 122.80 122.30 122.80 62.44 points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.59 0.58 34.68 -11.31 percent [+]
Export Prices 376.00 372.00 376.00 100.00 points [+]
Import Prices 513.00 523.00 523.00 100.00 points [+]
Food Inflation 14.12 10.01 14.72 -2.65 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 8.10 7.90 16.00 7.90 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.21 0.95 2.25 -1.55 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 152.80 153.50 153.50 100.30 points [+]
CPI Transportation 129.50 126.60 129.50 103.20 points [+]