India's industrial production growth slowed sharply to 0.5 percent year-on-year in November 2018 from an upwardly revised 11-month high of 8.4 percent in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 4.1 percent. It was the smallest gain in industrial activity since a contraction recorded in June 2017 as manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent (vs 8.2 percent in October) with fabricated metal products output falling the most (-13.4 percent), followed by electrical equipment (-9.6 percent) and other manufacturing (-7.3 percent). In addition, mining output expanded at a softer 2.7 percent (vs 7.2 percent in October) and electricity production increased 5.1 percent (vs 10.8 percent in October). Industrial Production in India averaged 6.36 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 19.90 percent in November of 2006 and a record low of -7.20 percent in February of 2009.
Industrial Production in India is expected to be 4.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in India to stand at 5.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Industrial Production is projected to trend around 6.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.