The economy of Iceland shrank 0.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, following a 2 percent expansion in the previous period. Government expenditure slowed (2.9 percent from 3 percent); and net foreign trade contributed negatively to the GDP, as exports dropped 12.9 percent (from -6.8 percent in Q2) and imports fell at a softer 8.6 percent (from -12.2 percent in Q2). Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation rebounded (2.9 percent from -10.4 percent); and household spending (2.1 percent from 1.6 percent) and inventories rose at a faster pace (1 percent from 0.6 percent). On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 0.7 percent, after growing 3.1 percent in the prior quarter. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Iceland averaged 3.56 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.40 percent in the first quarter of 1999 and a record low of -8.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Iceland is expected to be -0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Iceland to stand at 1.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Iceland GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Iceland GDP Annual Growth Rate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.10 2.00 13.40 -8.70 1995 - 2019 percent Quarterly

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-01 09:00 AM Q4 5.2% 2.5% 3.2%
2019-05-31 09:00 AM Q1 1.7% 4% 1.2%
2019-08-30 09:00 AM Q2 1.4% -0.9% 0.9%
2019-11-29 09:00 AM Q3 -0.1% 2% 1.5%
2020-02-28 09:00 AM Q4 -0.1% -0.5%

News Stream
Iceland GDP Growth Rebounds to 1.4% in Q2
The economy of Iceland expanded 1.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, rebounding from a revised 0.9 percent contraction in the previous quarter. Public expenditure increased faster (3.1 percent vs 2.8 percent in Q1) while inventories rebounded (0.6 percent vs -2.9 percent). In addition, net foreign trade contributed positively to growth as exports declined 6.9 percent (from 1.8 percent in Q1) and imports dropped at a faster 12.4 percent (from -8.4 percent in Q1) while gross fixed capital formation went down at a much softer rate (-14.2 percent vs -19.1 percent). On the other hand, household spending slowdown (2.2 percent vs 2.3 percent in Q1). On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 2.8 percent, after a revised 2.4 percent contraction in the previous quarter.

Iceland GDP Growth Lowest since 2014
The economy of Iceland expanded 1.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, easing from a 4.0 percent expansion in the previous period. It is the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2014 when the economy contracted 1 percent. Household spending slowdown (2.8 percent compared to 3.3 percent in Q4) while both gross fixed capital formation (-9.4 percent vs 2.5 percent) and inventories (-2.9 percent vs 0.9 percent) fell. Meanwhile, public expenditure increased faster (2.8 percent vs 2.6 percent). Regarding net foreign trade, exports went up 2.6 percent (from -5.9 percent in Q4) while imports dropped 8.1 percent (from 6.0 percent in Q4). On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 0.6 percent, after a 1.7 percent expansion in the previous quarter.

Iceland GDP Growth Rate Accelerates to 5.2% in Q4
Iceland’s gross domestic product advanced 5.2 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, accelerating from a downwardly revised 2.5 percent growth in the previous period. Fixed investment rebounded (8.0 percent from -8.2 percent in Q3), boosted by both residential construction (9.4 percent vs -2.8 percent) and government services (85.1 percent vs 17.6 percent). On the other hand, a slowdown was seen in private consumption (3.3 percent from 5.4 percent) and government expenditure (2.6 percent from 3.3 percent). Also, exports fell 5.9 percent (from a 5.3 rise percent in Q3) while imports declined 6 percent (from -0.2 percent in Q3). On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 2.7 percent, after stalling in the previous quarter. For 2018 as a whole, the economy expanded 4.9 percent, after a 4.6 percent growth in 2017, flash estimates showed.

Iceland GDP Annual Growth Rate
Iceland's economy depends heavily on the fishing industry, which provides 40 percent of export earnings, more than 12 percent of GDP, and employs nearly 5 percent of the work force. Its economy has been diversifying into manufacturing and service industries in the last decade, particularly within the fields of software production, biotechnology, and tourism. On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of GDP and accounts for 53 percent of its total use, followed by government expenditure (24 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 54 percent of GDP while imports account for 47 percent, adding 7 percent of total GDP.

Iceland GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate -0.70 3.10 10.00 -8.70 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.10 2.00 13.40 -8.70 percent [+]
GDP 25.88 24.49 25.88 0.25 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 378987.00 381745.00 381745.00 181908.00 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1470469.00 1422194.00 1470469.00 496273.00 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 77324.00 76297.00 108559.00 29062.00 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 52103.20 51282.00 52103.20 11465.03 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 48605.58 47839.52 48605.58 28295.13 USD [+]