Hungary - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 1.1 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3 percent
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade 122000.00 300000 130000 40000 320000 50000 HUF Million
Government Debt to GDP 73.60 72.9 72.9 69.1 70 69.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 275.22
280 282 284 287 296
Stock Market 35783.48
points
36374 35858 35349 34847 32909
Government Bond 10Y 3.72
percent
3.51 3.6 3.68 3.77 4.14
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.1 1 0.8 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80
percent
3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.4
GDP 139.14
USD Billion
146 146 151 151 157
GDP Constant Prices 6785046.00
HUF Million
6829262 7271593 6405952 7036093 7706725
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1686048.00
HUF Million
1534629 1605880 1699460 1748432 1701976
GDP per capita 15647.85
USD
15980 15980 16220 16220 16790
GDP per capita PPP 26777.56
USD
27196 27196 27872 27872 28225
GDP From Agriculture 197766.00
HUF Million
195848 196120 200322 205083 207855
GDP From Construction 313130.00
HUF Million
278285 300491 302351 324716 318473
GDP From Manufacturing 1351069.00
HUF Million
1302946 1368227 1380512 1401059 1450102
GDP From Public Administration 977840.00
HUF Million
996596 1012966 1014612 1014020 1073582
GDP From Services 3809368.00
HUF Million
3775816 3884737 3939736 3950315 4117199
GDP From Transport 309431.00
HUF Million
311042 321773 319912 320880 341028
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 5
Employed Persons 4483602.00
4491851 4500487 4515766 4527254 4619767
Unemployed Persons 166234.00
171377 168628 169911 169256 169452
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60
percent
1.59 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.63
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.20
percent
10.12 10.26 10.24 10.27 10.28
Labour Costs 124.30
Index Points
124 123 123 123 123
Job Vacancies 79428.00
90443 90265 95255 98360 121401
Wages 326724.00
HUF/Month
339000 367000 342000 329266 375000
Wage Growth 12.80
percent
10.6 10.3 8.8 8.5 6
Minimum Wages 418.47
EUR/Month
418 418 450 450 500
Population 9.78
Million
9.78 9.78 9.75 9.75 9.73
Retirement Age Women 63.50
63.5 63.5 64 63 64.5
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63.5 63.5 64 63 64.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.53
percent
62.59 62.46 62.44 62.48 62.48
Living Wage Family 239100.00
HUF/Month
239900 239900 239900 241778 239900
Living Wage Individual 164300.00
HUF/Month
165780 166327 166611 166896 168463
Part Time Employment 179.60
Thousand
175 176 174 172 168
Productivity 104.60
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Wages High Skilled 272000.00
HUF/Month
280083 280083 280083 235806 285074
Wages Low Skilled 137900.00
HUF/Month
140900 140900 140900 119072 141750
Employment Change 0.50
percent
0.54 0.48 0.49 0.54 0.53
Employment Rate 60.29
percent
61.18 62.38 61.73 61.44 61.44
Full Time Employment 4202.70
Thousand
4242 4237 4237 4247 4263
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40
percent
3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.00
Index Points
103 103 103 103 110
Consumer Price Index CPI 1278.20
Index Points
1279 1288 1293 1313 1367
Core Consumer Prices 428.60
Index Points
432 434 435 438 459
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9
GDP Deflator 152.52
Index Points
151 156 154 158 171
Producer Prices 108.40
Index Points
112 111 110 114 121
Producer Prices Change 8.40
percent
7.4 7.2 6.1 5.9 3
Export Prices 104.60
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Import Prices 105.80
Index Points
107 107 107 107 107
CPI Transportation 108.50
Index Points
107 108 102 111 115
Food Inflation 3.90
percent
4.4 4.1 4 3.6 4.9
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2
Interbank Rate 0.20
percent
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.55 1.3
Money Supply M0 7037.90
HUF Billion
6921 6928 6928 6928 6928
Money Supply M1 21015.90
HUF Billion
21576 22403 23235 24063 32116
Money Supply M2 24086.70
HUF Billion
24509 25125 25738 26347 32208
Money Supply M3 24566.60
HUF Billion
24911 25418 25924 26425 31228
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24264.40
EUR Million
24544 24366 24377 24358 24366
Banks Balance Sheet 39634.90
HUF Billion
39746 40049 40343 40627 43005
Loans to Private Sector 7040.50
HUF Billion
7122 7118 7119 7119 7119
Deposit Interest Rate -0.15
percent
-0.15 -0.15 -0.05 0.2 0.95
Private Debt to GDP 131.46
percent
125 125 117 117 112
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9809.50
HUF Billion
10230 10224 10232 10232 10232
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 122000.00
HUF Million
300000 130000 40000 320000 50000
Exports 2736000.00
HUF Million
2890000 2510000 3120000 3140000 2880000
Imports 2615000.00
HUF Million
2590000 2380000 3080000 2820000 2830000
Current Account 772.37
EUR Million
840 550 1200 1089 320
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent
4 4 3.6 3.6 3.4
External Debt 103657.39
EUR Million
101413 100004 99337 98582 91809
Terms of Trade 98.87
Index Points
98.25 98.1 98.16 98.13 98.14
Capital Flows 1946.40
EUR Million
1321 1277 1287 1284 1285
Foreign Direct Investment 454.41
EUR Million
676 778 784 646 658
Remittances 329.20
EUR Million
327 314 312 315 317
Gold Reserves 3.10
Tonnes
2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97
Terrorism Index 0.84
0.64 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.61
Crude Oil Production 16.00
BBL/D/1K
16.12 16.12 16.12 16.12 16.12
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.60
percent
72.9 72.9 69.1 70 69.5
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -1.96 -1.88 -0.4
Government Budget Value -155.30
HUF Billion
-220 -360 -320 -640 -240
Government Spending 691096.00
HUF Million
686512 814680 668026 716667 863430
Government Spending to GDP 46.50
percent
47.16 47.09 47.06 47.02 45.17
Government Revenues 1124412.00
HUF Million
1106699 1094474 1097243 1096492 1096620
Government Debt 28072.93
HUF Billion
28108 28084 28080 28080 28080
Fiscal Expenditure 1205062.00
HUF Million
1325102 1292626 1297814 1297303 1297391
Military Expenditure 1349.50
USD Million
1386 1398 1408 1418 1494
Asylum Applications 25.00
persons
139 134 148 139 142
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 13.30
Index Points
13.64 13.26 13.16 13.13 13.13
Industrial Production 6.20
percent
3.2 4.5 3.5 3.3 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -2.00
percent
-0.27 0.38 0.32 0.32 0.3
Manufacturing Production 4.30
percent
3.9 3.77 3.73 3.73 3.73
New Orders 112.00
Index Points
106 106 106 106 106
Changes in Inventories -141025.00
HUF Million
117224 140139 79223 -89624 83731
Car Registrations 14192.00
12808 12956 12744 12750 12715
Internet Speed 14814.21
KBps
17298 17699 18120 18534 22097
IP Addresses 2456014.00
IP
2415835 2413629 2416152 2414219 2414340
Mining Production 35.10
percent
40.87 40.82 40.74 40.64 40.61
Manufacturing Pmi 56.20
55.2 54.2 53.3 53.1 52.5
Steel Production 179.00
Thousand Tonnes
176 175 175 175 175
Competitiveness Index 4.33
Points
4.29 4.29 4.41 4.45 4.17
Competitiveness Rank 60.00
64 64 56 53 61
Ease of Doing Business 48.00
45 43 44 44 45
Electricity Production 2808.00
Gigawatt-hour
2681 2706 2525 2537 2582
Corruption Index 45.00
Points
48 48 49 50 53
Corruption Rank 66.00
66 69 69 69 65
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -12.20
Index Points
-13.55 -11.52 -11.43 -11.9 -11.69
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 5.30
percent
5.8 5.3 4.5 4.3 3.1
Consumer Spending 4113203.00
HUF Million
3957235 4353638 4067305 4265392 4614159
Personal Savings 9.62
percent
9.72 9.46 9.48 9.51 9.52
Private Sector Credit 5977.40
HUF Billion
6002 6015 6014 6014 6014
Bank Lending Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2
Consumer Credit 614.12
HUF Billion
637 666 692 715 874
Gasoline Prices 1.45
USD/Liter
1.48 1.4 1.32 1.25 0.98
Households Debt To Gdp 18.80
percent of GDP
18.11 17.81 17.54 17.29 15.52
Households Debt To Income 39.39
percent
38.85 37.6 37.28 36.95 36.77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 38.00
percent
17.7 17.38 17.43 17.42 17.41
Housing Index 130.59
Index points
136 139 142 144 161
Building Permits 1218.00
1126 1131 1142 1140 1140
Home Ownership Rate 85.30
percent
85.21 84.94 84.87 84.8 84.32
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 14.75 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate 42.00
percent
42 42 42 42 42
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.50
percent
23.26 23.26 23.5 23.59 21.39
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50
percent
19.05 19.05 18.29 18.04 18.19
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 2.61
celsius
18.86 4.63 0.65 15.75 9.98
Precipitation 6.99
mm
59.85 49.81 35.49 51.79 53.34