Hungary - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hungary including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hungary economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1.1 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3 percent
Interest Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2 percent
Balance of Trade 185000.00 300000 130000 40000 320000 50000 HUF Million
Government Debt to GDP 73.60 72.9 72.9 69.1 70 69.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 280.23
287 293 300 307 336
Stock Market 35117.83
points
34923 33507 32153 30850 26148
Government Bond 10Y 3.35
percent
4.09 4.36 4.66 4.97 6.45
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
1.1 1 0.8 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.40
percent
2.9 2.7 4.5 4.3 2.4
GDP 139.14
USD Billion
146 146 151 151 157
GDP Constant Prices 6171437.00
HUF Million
6802442 7187609 6449152 6749996 7551475
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1637245.00
HUF Million
1528602 1587333 1710921 1532464 1667690
GDP per capita 15647.85
USD
15980 15980 16220 16220 16790
GDP per capita PPP 26777.56
USD
27196 27196 27872 27872 28225
GDP From Agriculture 192988.00
HUF Million
195079 193854 201672 200763 203668
GDP From Construction 291282.00
HUF Million
277192 297021 304390 265990 312057
GDP From Manufacturing 1329973.00
HUF Million
1297829 1352424 1389822 1369748 1420890
GDP From Public Administration 977468.00
HUF Million
992682 1001266 1021454 1024314 1051955
GDP From Services 3795507.00
HUF Million
3760987 3839870 3966305 3813302 4034259
GDP From Transport 308200.00
HUF Million
309820 318057 322069 310042 334158
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
4 4.2 4.3 4.4 5
Employed Persons 4457023.00
4469615 4462605 4464815 4466253 4465434
Unemployed Persons 170627.00
165885 163172 163624 163060 163048
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60
percent
1.4 1.39 1.37 1.37 1.35
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.40
percent
8.98 8.84 8.75 8.71 8.66
Labour Costs 130.00
Index Points
125 124 124 124 124
Job Vacancies 79428.00
90443 90265 95255 98360 121401
Wages 340559.00
HUF/Month
339000 367000 342000 326597 375000
Wage Growth 12.60
percent
10.6 10.3 8.8 8.5 6
Minimum Wages 444.69
EUR/Month
445 445 500 459 550
Population 9.78
Million
9.78 9.78 9.75 9.75 9.73
Retirement Age Women 63.50
63.5 63.5 64 63 64.5
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63.5 63.5 64 63 64.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.23
percent
62.28 62.23 62.24 62.26 62.25
Living Wage Family 239100.00
HUF/Month
239900 239900 239900 241778 239900
Living Wage Individual 164300.00
HUF/Month
165780 166327 166611 166896 168463
Part Time Employment 179.60
Thousand
182 184 184 183 181
Productivity 98.00
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Wages High Skilled 272000.00
HUF/Month
280083 280083 280083 235806 285074
Wages Low Skilled 137900.00
HUF/Month
140900 140900 140900 119072 141750
Employment Change 0.70
percent
0.63 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.6
Employment Rate 59.94
percent
61.28 60.84 61.04 60.95 60.98
Full Time Employment 4202.70
Thousand
4241 4235 4235 4245 4260
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.14 0.6 0.25 0.22 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.30
Index Points
103 103 103 103 110
Consumer Price Index CPI 1273.80
Index Points
1279 1285 1293 1313 1365
Core Consumer Prices 426.90
Index Points
432 434 435 438 459
Core Inflation Rate 2.40
percent
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9
GDP Deflator 148.30
Index Points
150 156 154 156 169
Producer Prices 105.30
Index Points
111 107 106 111 112
Producer Prices Change 5.30
percent
6.41 2.6 2.4 2.73 2.1
Export Prices 99.30
Index Points
99.03 99.02 99.01 99.02 99.02
Import Prices 100.00
Index Points
99.44 99.53 99.48 99.51 99.5
CPI Transportation 107.40
Index Points
107 108 102 111 115
Food Inflation 3.10
percent
4.4 4.1 4 3.6 4.9
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2
Interbank Rate 0.26
percent
0.26 0.26 0.36 0.61 1.36
Money Supply M0 6973.90
HUF Billion
6921 6928 6928 6928 6928
Money Supply M1 20308.10
HUF Billion
21409 22213 23011 23805 31511
Money Supply M2 23463.90
HUF Billion
24222 24784 25343 25898 31233
Money Supply M3 23939.30
HUF Billion
24533 24975 25414 25849 30025
Foreign Exchange Reserves 24060.80
EUR Million
24466 24268 24295 24271 24279
Banks Balance Sheet 39332.50
HUF Billion
39142 39386 39621 39848 41749
Loans to Private Sector 6868.00
HUF Billion
6727 6726 6726 6726 6726
Deposit Interest Rate -0.15
percent
-0.15 -0.15 -0.05 0.2 0.95
Private Debt to GDP 131.46
percent
125 125 117 117 112
Cash Reserve Ratio 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
Central Bank Balance Sheet 10084.70
HUF Billion
9397 9397 9398 9398 9398
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 185000.00
HUF Million
300000 130000 40000 320000 50000
Exports 2857000.00
HUF Million
2890000 2510000 3120000 3140000 2880000
Imports 2673000.00
HUF Million
2590000 2380000 3080000 2820000 2830000
Current Account 1027.00
EUR Million
840 550 1200 1089 320
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent
4 4 3.6 3.6 3.4
External Debt 103657.39
EUR Million
101413 100004 99337 98582 91809
Terms of Trade 99.30
Index Points
99.59 99.5 99.53 99.51 99.52
Capital Flows 1946.40
EUR Million
1321 1277 1287 1284 1285
Foreign Direct Investment 454.41
EUR Million
676 778 784 646 658
Remittances 329.20
EUR Million
327 314 312 315 317
Gold Reserves 3.10
Tonnes
2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97
Terrorism Index 0.84
0.64 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.61
Crude Oil Production 16.00
BBL/D/1K
15.79 15.78 15.78 15.78 15.78
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 73.60
percent
72.9 72.9 69.1 70 69.5
Government Budget -2.00
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -1.96 -1.88 -0.4
Government Budget Value -233.00
HUF Billion
-220 -360 -320 -640 -240
Government Spending 643570.00
HUF Million
683816 805271 672531 707713 846037
Government Spending to GDP 46.50
percent
47.16 47.09 47.06 47.02 45.17
Government Revenues 947668.00
HUF Million
1106776 1095413 1097724 1097080 1097191
Government Debt 28342.94
HUF Billion
28471 28443 28463 28457 28459
Fiscal Expenditure 1071413.00
HUF Million
1332583 1310453 1314289 1313169 1313413
Military Expenditure 1349.50
USD Million
1386 1398 1408 1418 1494
Asylum Applications 45.00
persons
139 134 148 139 142
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 15.30
Index Points
15.49 15.61 15.64 15.65 15.65
Industrial Production 0.40
percent
3.2 4.5 3.5 3.3 2.1
Industrial Production Mom 1.90
percent
0.28 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.34
Manufacturing Production 0.60
percent
0.1 0.07 0.02 0 -0.03
New Orders 103.20
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Changes in Inventories 81985.00
HUF Million
127096 140335 82336 -63897 89912
Car Registrations 12871.00
12137 11953 11986 11939 11950
Internet Speed 14814.21
KBps
17298 17699 18120 18534 22097
IP Addresses 2456014.00
IP
2415835 2413629 2416152 2414219 2414340
Mining Production 38.20
percent
62.58 60.98 59.79 59.59 59.77
Manufacturing Pmi 53.00
55.2 54.2 53.3 53.1 52.5
Steel Production 174.00
Thousand Tonnes
170 171 171 171 171
Competitiveness Index 4.33
Points
4.29 4.29 4.41 4.45 4.17
Competitiveness Rank 60.00
64 64 56 53 61
Ease of Doing Business 48.00
45 43 44 44 45
Electricity Production 2417.00
Gigawatt-hour
2740 2684 2587 2626 2637
Corruption Index 45.00
Points
48 48 49 50 53
Corruption Rank 66.00
66 69 69 69 65
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -5.70
Index Points
-6.01 -5.92 -6.01 -5.94 -5.96
Retail Sales MoM 1.50
percent
0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 7.80
percent
5.8 5.3 4.5 4.3 3.1
Consumer Spending 3918406.00
HUF Million
3941694 4303355 4094734 4112818 4521208
Personal Savings 9.62
percent
9.72 9.46 9.48 9.51 9.52
Private Sector Credit 5877.80
HUF Billion
5913 5918 5917 5917 5917
Bank Lending Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 1 1.25 2
Consumer Credit 563.92
HUF Billion
594 613 629 644 738
Gasoline Prices 1.39
USD/Liter
1.32 1.24 1.17 1.11 0.64
Households Debt To Gdp 18.80
percent of GDP
18.11 17.81 17.54 17.29 15.52
Households Debt To Income 39.39
percent
38.85 37.6 37.28 36.95 36.77
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 15.10
percent
16.28 15.83 15.83 15.81 15.8
Housing Index 130.59
Index points
136 139 142 144 161
Building Permits 1371.00
1136 1140 1155 1153 1152
Home Ownership Rate 85.30
percent
85.21 84.94 84.87 84.8 84.32
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 14.75 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate 42.00
percent
42 42 41.5 41 42
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.50
percent
23.26 23.26 23.5 23.59 21.39
Social Security Rate For Employees 18.50
percent
19.05 19.05 18.29 18.04 18.19
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 2.61
celsius
18.86 4.63 0.65 15.75 9.98
Precipitation 6.99
mm
59.85 49.81 35.49 51.79 53.34