Retail sales volume in Hong Kong decreased 1.7 percent year-on-year in May of 2019, following a 5 percent slump in the previous month. It was the fourth straight month of drop in retail sales, though at a softer pace. Sales fell less for food, alcoholic drinks & tobacco (-1.2% vs -2.2% in April), led by fresh fruits & vegetables (2% vs -4.7%); consumer durable goods (-7.6% vs -8.7%) and jewellery, watches & clocks (-1.7% vs -10.5%). In addition, there was a rebound in those at department stores (2.7% vs -2.5%) and for other consumer goods (2.1% vs -3.7%). On the other hand, sales declined further at supermarkets (-5.9% vs -2.5%); fuels (-8.6% vs -1.9%) and clothing, footwear & allied products (-3.1% vs -2.2%). Considering the first five months of 2019, retail trade shrank 2.2 percent compared to the same period a a year ago. On a monthly basis, retail sales grew 6.5 percent, after a 5.7 percent decrease in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 5.37 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -18.50 percent in February of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong is expected to be 8.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong to stand at 3.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.