The economy of Honduras advanced 2.2 percent year-on-year in November 2019, the same pace as in the previous month. Output growth accelerated in manufacturing (2.8 percent from 1.6 percent in October); trade (4.1 percent from 1.2 percent); mining & quarrying (14.6 percent from 10.6 percent); hotels & restaurants (5.5 percent from 5.4 percent); utilities (9.6 percent from 6.7 percent); and telecommunication (2.2 percent from 2.1 percent). Also, agriculture, forestry & fishing output shrank 1.4 percent, less than a 3.3 percent contraction in the prior month. Meanwhile, transportation & storage contracted 8.6 percent, after growing 8.4 percent in October; and growth slowed in financial intermediation & insurance (8.4 percent from 9.3 percent). Additionally, construction output expanded 6.2 percent, the same as in the previous month. Leading Economic Index in Honduras averaged 4.86 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.60 percent in November of 2006 and a record low of -8.40 percent in April of 2009. source: Central Bank of Honduras
Leading Economic Index in Honduras is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Honduras to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Honduras Economic Activity Index YoY Change is projected to trend around 3.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.
Honduras Economic Activity Index YoY Change
In Honduras, the Monthly Economic Activity Index - IMAE - summarizes the activity of the different economic sectors in a given month, anticipating future movements in GDP. The index aggregates the dynamics of industry (21 percent share), agriculture and fishing (14.7 percent), trade (12.4 percent) and real estate activities (9 percent). Mining, utilities, construction, hotels and restaurants, transport, financial services, public administration and health and social services account for the remaining 42.9 percent. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2000.