Guatemala - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Guatemala including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Guatemala economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 4.09 4.1 4.1 4 4.2 4 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade -841.20 -758 -758 -758 -758 -758 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 24.76 25 25 27.4 23.7 25.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 7.47
 7.53 7.57 7.61 7.65 7.81
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.99
percent		 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5
GDP 75.62
USD Billion		 79 79.02 85.3 85.3 96.2
GDP Constant Prices 62444.70
GTQ Million		 65439 70295 64568 64630 75229
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37197.60
GTQ Million		 37627 38425 38462 38500 41122
GDP per capita 3124.21
USD		 3190 3190 3260 3260 3340
GDP per capita PPP 7423.81
USD		 7481 7500 7685 7685 7770
Gdp From Agriculture 8152.50
GTQ Million		 8333 10892 8430 8438 11657
Gdp From Construction 1402.90
GTQ Million		 1866 2343 1451 1452 2508
Gdp From Manufacturing 11722.60
GTQ Million		 11538 11799 12121 12133 12627
Gdp From Mining 229.30
GTQ Million		 248 265 237 237 284
Gdp From Public Administration 2977.20
GTQ Million		 3050 3291 3078 3081 3522
Gdp From Transport 6555.80
GTQ Million		 6620 7199 6779 6785 7704
Gdp From Utilities 1939.40
GTQ Million		 2010 1964 2005 2007 2101
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent		 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.4
Population 16.92
Million		 16.81 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.87
Wages High Skilled 8270.00
GTQ/Month		 8400 8400 8400 7928 8500
Wages Low Skilled 3320.00
GTQ/Month		 3390 3390 3390 2999 3420
Living Wage Family 3560.00
GTQ/Month		 3560 3560 3660 3560 3660
Living Wage Individual 1690.00
GTQ/Month		 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.09
percent		 4.1 4.1 4 4.2 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 135.00
Index Points		 136 140 139 141 151
Inflation Expectations 4.59
percent		 4.58 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.55
Inflation Rate Mom 0.47
percent		 0.31 0.29 0.3 0.3 0.3
Food Inflation 7.80
percent		 7.73 7.73 7.73 7.73 7.73
Core Consumer Prices 127.67
Index Points		 128 129 129 129 130
Core Inflation Rate 2.46
percent		 2.31 2.27 2.25 2.24 2.23
Cpi Housing Utilities 111.65
Index Points		 113 115 115 116 124
Cpi Transportation 110.42
Index Points		 110 110 110 110 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent		 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.5
Money Supply M0 61351.00
GTQ Million		 62065 62974 63886 64788 73608
Money Supply M1 84144.40
GTQ Million		 84040 83995 83987 83985 83985
Money Supply M2 235782.40
GTQ Million		 239851 243624 247382 251133 288227
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11979.20
USD Million		 12217 12454 12689 12924 15192
Deposit Interest Rate 5.40
percent		 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.15
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -841.20
USD Million		 -758 -758 -758 -758 -758
Exports 902.90
USD Million		 901 903 903 903 903
Imports 1744.10
USD Million		 1659 1661 1661 1661 1661
Current Account -238.00
USD Million		 99.67 -124 215 284 63.13
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent		 -0.54 0.3 -1.72 -1.24 -0.26
Capital Flows 1845.80
USD Million		 1940 2102 2090 2077 1592
Remittances 7160.00
USD Million		 7592 7825 7957 8090 9792
Gold Reserves 6.90
Tonnes		 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89
Terrorism Index 0.51
 0.58 0.51 0.62 0.73 1.83
Tourist Arrivals 654643.00
persons		 539400 561300 584600 596100 575500
Foreign Direct Investment 282.10
USD Million		 274 276 284 269 272
Crude Oil Production 9.00
BBL/D/1K		 9.33 9.21 9.25 9.28 9.26
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.76
percent		 25 25 27.4 23.7 25.2
Government Budget -1.30
percent of GDP		 -1.44 -1.48 -1.47 -1.47 -1.29
Government Budget Value -1536.30
GTQ Million		 -1124 -751 -804 -787 -634
Government Spending 26287.20
GTQ Million		 27425 27155 27181 27207 29061
Government Revenues 4502.60
GTQ Million		 4718 4816 4892 4947 5081
Fiscal Expenditure 6038.90
GTQ Million		 5842 5622 5697 5734 5715
Military Expenditure 262.80
USD Million		 281 283 280 278 280
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories -63.80
GTQ Million		 265 98.68 220 342 563
Internet Speed 3309.38
KBps		 3190 3195 3202 3197 3197
IP Addresses 208790.00
IP		 204158 204238 204174 204097 204158
Leading Economic Index 2.30
percent		 2.8 2.8 3 3.2 2.7
Steel Production 25.00
Thousand Tonnes		 26.3 25.29 25.21 25.45 25.4
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points		 4.09 4.09 4.08 4.08 4.1
Competitiveness Rank 84.00
 84 84 85 86 83
Ease of Doing Business 97.00
 104 106 107 107 115
Corruption Index 28.00
Points		 28 28 28 28 29
Corruption Rank 143.00
 142 143 142 142 140
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 223095.10
GTQ Million		 222073 230457 230680 230903 246633
Private Sector Credit 123235.50
GTQ Million		 124137 125005 125851 126675 133835
Gasoline Prices 0.90
USD/Liter		 0.85 0.8 0.76 0.72 0.55
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 7.00
percent		 7 7 7 7 7
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25.25 25 25
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 17.50
percent		 17.5 17.5 18 18 18
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.67
percent		 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.83
percent		 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 25.66
celsius		 24.13 21.89 21.88 23.81 23.67