Greece - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Greece including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Greece economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 20.20 19.6 19.1 18.2 17.5 16 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1466.60 -1270 -1700 -2110 -1470 -1630 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 178.60 176 176 174 174 172 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 754.36
points
717 685 654 625 521
Government Bond 10Y 3.87
percent
4.29 4.65 5.03 5.45 7.52
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent
1.8 2 1.8 1.9 2.1
GDP 200.29
USD Billion
207 207 215 215 222
GDP Constant Prices 44129.40
EUR Million
50305 47734 44924 48218 49662
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5133.00
EUR Million
5414 6994 5225 5646 7277
GDP per capita 23027.41
USD
23400 23400 23800 23800 24500
GDP per capita PPP 24574.38
USD
25600 25600 25900 25900 26200
GDP From Agriculture 1743.30
EUR Million
1493 1640 1775 1668 1707
GDP From Construction 788.04
EUR Million
1213 1947 802 984 2025
GDP From Mining 5208.96
EUR Million
5722 5306 5303 5543 5521
GDP From Public Administration 9195.39
EUR Million
9048 9234 9361 9170 9607
GDP From Services 7259.48
EUR Million
11208 7924 7390 9189 8244
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 20.20
percent
19.6 19.1 18.2 17.5 16
Employed Persons 3801.00
Thousand
3740 3780 3800 3820 3990
Unemployed Persons 941.30
Thousand
1000 990 980 975 950
Part Time Employment 357.40
Thousand
383 385 386 388 396
Full Time Employment 3366.30
Thousand
3580 3600 3610 3620 3700
Employment Rate 80.15
percent
79.6 79.8 79.9 80 81.2
Long Term Unemployment Rate 14.50
percent
14.2 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 42.30
percent
41.6 41.2 41 40.5 36
Labour Costs 90.30
Index Points
80.1 95.9 89.1 90.2 96.6
Job Vacancies 2825.00
11200 12500 18900 15100 16300
Minimum Wages 683.76
EUR/Month
684 684 684 684 684
Population 10.74
Million
10.74 10.74 10.69 10.69 10.64
Retirement Age Women 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Labor Force Participation Rate 51.60
percent
52.6 52.7 52.7 52.8 53.2
Living Wage Family 1020.00
EUR/Month
1050 1050 1070 1070 1200
Living Wage Individual 580.00
EUR/Month
580 580 620 620 650
Productivity 91.10
Index Points
94 94.4 94.6 94.2 95.6
Wages High Skilled 1600.00
EUR/Month
1700 1700 1750 1750 1750
Wages Low Skilled 747.00
EUR/Month
800 800 850 850 850
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.29
Index Points
103 103 103 105 107
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.76
Index Points
108 108 108 110 112
Core Consumer Prices 99.60
Index Points
100 100 100 101 103
Core Inflation Rate 0.20
percent
0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.7
GDP Deflator 95.00
Index Points
96 96 98 98 102
Producer Prices 107.70
Index Points
108 108 106 109 113
Producer Prices Change 7.00
percent
5.9 4 3.2 2.5 2.3
Import Prices 104.55
Index Points
102 101 103 103 105
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00
percent
0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 119.39
Index Points
121 121 121 121 126
CPI Transportation 128.56
Index Points
122 123 125 131 128
Food Inflation 1.30
percent
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M0 30390.00
EUR Million
32800 33100 33700 34200 39900
Money Supply M1 115783.00
EUR Million
122000 125000 129000 132000 145000
Money Supply M2 169226.00
EUR Million
179000 180000 182000 184000 199000
Money Supply M3 170044.00
EUR Million
178000 181000 185000 191000 214000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 6370.00
EUR Million
6301 7400 6306 6316 8900
Banks Balance Sheet 296017.78
EUR Million
306000 312000 316000 318000 342000
Loans to Private Sector 86593.13
EUR Million
89500 89600 90100 91500 101000
Loan Growth -3.20
percent
-2.6 -0.7 0.2 0.5 1.8
Private Debt to GDP 131.90
percent
130 130 125 125 119
Central Bank Balance Sheet 114322.00
EUR Million
108000 115000 119000 125000 151000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1466.60
EUR Million
-1270 -1700 -2110 -1470 -1630
Exports 2941.70
EUR Million
2650 2750 2810 2770 3050
Imports 4408.30
EUR Million
3920 4450 4920 4240 4680
Current Account -1343.90
EUR Million
1340 -1100 -1200 950 -780
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2
External Debt 401886.95
EUR Million
415000 419000 424000 428000 445000
Capital Flows -977.86
EUR Million
1450 -280 -820 750 -360
Remittances 81.70
EUR Million
62 79 85 87 89
Gold Reserves 113.00
Tonnes
113 113 113 113 113
Terrorism Index 4.14
4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
Tourism Revenues 489.90
EUR Million
2680 230 228 2450 275
Tourist Arrivals 2365125.00
persons
2851000 401000 372000 2791000 465000
Crude Oil Production 3.00
BBL/D/1K
4 4 4 4 4
Foreign Direct Investment 375.20
EUR Million
320 290 750 690 400
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 178.60
percent
176 176 174 174 172
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP
1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5
Government Budget Value -958.70
EUR Million
530 250 410 -700 390
Government Spending 9263.40
EUR Million
9952 11188 9430 10063 11640
Government Spending to GDP 48.00
percent
47.5 47.5 46 46 44
Government Revenues 18436.00
EUR Million
37250 55510 12620 24100 55730
Government Debt 343740.14
EUR Million
342000 346000 349000 350000 362000
Fiscal Expenditure 19235.00
EUR Million
36720 55260 12210 24800 55340
Military Expenditure 4959.43
USD Million
4935 4910 4908 4905 4910
Asylum Applications 4385.00
persons
4500 5400 2800 4200 2500
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 102.50
Index Points
105 107 106 108 109
Manufacturing PMI 53.50
53.4 53.8 53.4 53.6 54
Industrial Production 1.00
percent
2.2 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.50
percent
-0.7 1.6 -0.8 1.8 1.2
Manufacturing Production 0.30
percent
3 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1
Capacity Utilization 69.80
percent
70.9 71.1 71.4 71.7 74
New Orders -19.00
percent
-10 -8 -7 -10 -4
Car Registrations 12566.00
6100 6650 10100 10900 8650
Internet Speed 7862.25
KBps
7229 7602 7796 7500 7668
IP Addresses 3133476.00
IP
3062959 3062881 3057048 3052179 3019259
Mining Production 6.80
percent
0.5 1 1.5 1.7 1.4
Steel Production 145.00
Thousand Tonnes
50 120 95 130 136
Changes In Inventories -37.02
EUR Million
-382 -202 -294 -322 -306
Competitiveness Index 4.02
Points
4 4.02 4.07 4.07 4.11
Competitiveness Rank 87.00
87 87 86 86 85
Ease of Doing Business 67.00
66 66 65 65 64
Electricity Production 3345.00
Gigawatt-hour
4000 5100 3870 4400 5150
Corruption Index 48.00
Points
49 49 50 50 51
Corruption Rank 59.00
58 58 57 57 56
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -52.40
Index Points
-44.4 -43 -40 -37 -27
Retail Sales MoM 0.70
percent
-0.8 1.5 -0.4 0.8 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 1.30
percent
1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 2
Consumer Spending 31047.20
EUR Million
32258 32649 31606 33114 33968
Private Sector Credit 179187.07
EUR Million
184000 191000 195000 197000 215000
Bank Lending Rate 4.66
percent
4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 5.41
Consumer Credit 21171.44
EUR Million
22400 26100 26900 27200 39100
Gasoline Prices 1.91
USD/Liter
1.81 1.71 1.61 1.52 1.13
Households Debt To Gdp 57.20
percent of GDP
58 58 54.9 54.9 51.9
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 58.90
Index Points
60.5 62 62.5 63 66
Building Permits 1058.00
units
1140 1320 1400 1290 2740
Home Ownership Rate 73.30
percent
73.2 73.2 72.7 72.7 72
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.00
percent
29 29 29 29 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 40.06
percent
40.06 40.06 40.06 40.06 40.06
Social Security Rate For Companies 24.06
percent
24.06 24.06 24.06 24.06 24.06
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 5.93
celsius
23.19 11.38 7.1 21.47 15.13
Precipitation 8.87
mm
23.49 89.87 71.83 54.23 57.76